“The War Putin Wanted Now Threatens His Rule”, Der Spiegel

A Commentary by Mathieu von Rohr, Berlin, 26.06.23

Dictatorships seem stable up until the moment they no longer are. After the failed uprising of the Wagner troops, Vladimir Putin’s system is looking wobbly. Suddenly, a Russia without him is conceivable.

If you believe the state propaganda, then nothing actually happened in Russia over the weekend. The brief uprising by Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, who sent his troops marching toward Moscow, a move Russian President Vladimir Putin was still comparing on Saturday to the Russian Civil War of 1917, was just some kind of silly, adolescent prank.

The message: Keep going about whatever you are doing. There’s nothing to see here.

Yet the weekend saw the most precarious 36 hours for Putin since he took power in 2000. A man who has almost compulsively sought to demonstrate his strength over his two decades in power – through his shirtless equestrian photos, the endlessly long meeting tables in the Kremlin and the routine poisoning of political opponents – has now been weakened.

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It is a widespread misconception that dictatorships provide stability. It’s also how dictators like Putin often justify their claim to power: It’s me or chaos.

But it isn’t true. Dictators only ever seem to be stable until they suddenly cease to be. The chaos that then erupts seemingly by surprise is already part of the DNA of many dictatorships. When there are no stable institutions and no state, but there are competing factions in a system held together only by a dictator and his clique, then everything can spiral out of control when the dictator unexpectedly shows weakness.

When Putin suspended term limitations in 2020 so that he could theoretically be reelected until his death, he made that very promise to Russians: stability. What they got, though, is the opposite.

It Would Be Hard To Find a Better Symbol for Powerlessness

Two dates frame this late phase of Putin’s rule: On February 24, 2022, Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine. Despite tens of thousands of casualties, this decision didn’t initially represent a threat to his rule. The populace didn’t rebel.

Sixteen months later, on June 24, 2023, Putin allowed marauding mercenary leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to occupy an entire garrison city and move toward Moscow with thousands of soldiers – because he is angry with Putin’s army chiefs. On their way toward the capital, the Wagner Group mercenaries under Prigozhin’s control probably shot down more Russian combat helicopters than the Ukrainian army has in recent weeks. And yet Prigozhin has still been allowed to withdraw in a face-saving manner following mediation by Putin’s Belarusian vassal Alexander Lukashenko. At least for the moment.

With people cheering him on, Yevgeny Prigozhin departs from Rostov-on-Don at the end of his uprising on June 24. Foto: ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS

It’s not entirely clear what Prigozhin had hoped to achieve. Did he really want to go into battle in Moscow? What will be remembered is the Russian army’s inability to stop the rebels on their way toward the capital – and the image of an excavator that had been used to damage the highway to Moscow, apparently to slow the Wagner troops. It would be hard to find a better symbol for powerlessness.

Even many of the best Kremlin experts are uncertain how to interpret this weekend’s events. Those who are predicting that Putin will be gone in the next several weeks or months are really just guessing. The truth is that much remains uncertain.

It wouldn’t be the first time that Putin managed to maneuver himself back into a position of strength in a difficult situation. Only this time it will be much harder for him than in 2011, back when thousands took to the streets against him throughout the country.

This time, Putin’s nimbus has been damaged. His image as a master of strategy and the aura he presents of untouchability has been tarnished. The Putin system seems more hollow and fragile than would have been imaginable only a few days ago.

Support for Prigozhin

The war that Putin wanted is now threatening his rule. He’s the one who elevated figures like Prigozhin in the first place. The force he wanted to project Russian power at the periphery of his imagined empire instead turned against the center.

Dictators, it turns out, are sometimes sham giants. In Russia, Putin’s rule has long been based not on the support of a large part of the population, but rather on its apathy. The number of people among the population and elites who demonstratively stood up in support of Putin on Saturday was surprisingly small.

A resident of Rostov-on-Don poses for a selfie with a mercenary from the Wagner Group. Foto: ARKADY BUDNITSKY / EPA

By contrast, in the city of Rostov-on-Don, which he briefly occupied, Prigozhin received applause from the populace as he was withdrawing. The mercenary leader may not be the one to succeed Putin one day, but with his bellicose manner and straight-talk, he seems to provide something that many Russians are yearning for. And that truth will remain even if Putin moves to eliminate him at some point.

Prigozhin, who portrays himself as the mightiest of all warriors, exposed Putin’s official justification for the war as a lie before his march to Moscow: He said that neither Ukraine nor NATO had been planning any attack on Russia.

Prigozhin Contradicts Official Reason for War

Only one thing is certain after this weekend: Many things that seemed unthinkable only a short time ago now appear to be possible. And the world has learned a lot about Putin, about his system and about Russia.

First: Putin’s reaction to this violent uprising shows that he is quite willing to negotiate when he feels backed into a corner. That’s quite the opposite of the myth he has long propagated, according to which the hard-pressed Putin is the most dangerous Putin. Over the past 16 months, the notion that Putin is virtually invincible has often been voiced by opponents of military support for Ukraine. That came to an end over the weekend. And that should also provide food for thought for some of his international allies. The policy of consistent support for Ukraine by the West remains correct.

Second: A window has opened within Putin’s empire that had previously been firmly closed: A Russia without Putin is suddenly conceivable. Only theoretically, of course, and it also isn’t clear when, how or who would succeed him. Putin has spent his entire rule trying to convince the world that only he can be the czar. That time has passed. The idea of a Russia without him has now made it into the minds of its citizens and can no longer be easily shooed away. The idea of an armed uprising against the authorities is also out there after this weekend.

A Wagner Group tank at the entrance to a circus in Rostov-on-Don. Foto: STRINGER / AFP

It can’t be ruled out that Putin’s candidacy for the presidential election next March will be up for debate – or that, on the contrary, he will do everything in his power in the coming weeks to quash any discussion of it from the outset.

But even if someone were to succeed Putin in the foreseeable future, the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine are difficult to foresee. He could be succeeded by someone who thinks even more radically than he does – but also by someone who would find it easier to end the war. If only because it the war that proved to be the undoing of his predecessor.

One way or another, this past weekend in Russia will go down in history.