“Girding for Russian Attacks: Ukraine Prepares Electricity Grid for Another Winter of War”, Der Spiegel

By Alexander Epp, Oliver Imhof and Niklas Marienhagen in Kyiv and Hamburg, 15.11.2023

What can be done to protect power plants and substations from the kinds of debilitating attacks Russia perpetrated against Ukraine last winter? The country is now preparing with giant new bulwarks and an improved air defense system.

Anti-tank barricades and checkpoints adorn a narrow country road somewhere in the vastness of Ukraine. Publication of their exact location is prohibited because they are subject to strict security regulations. State-of-the-art American Patriot air defense systems, with their characteristic missile launchers, can be seen positioned among the autumnal trees. It almost feels like the entrance to a secret military base. After going through a security check, though, the steel gate opens up to a power substation, not some miracle weapon one might otherwise have expected.

Since last winter, these facilities have been among the best-secured locations in the country. Russia has deployed myriad airstrikes in a systematic attempt to destroy Ukraine’s energy supply and break the civilian population’s will to fight during the cold season. This particular facility has also been targeted by the Russians on several occasions. “We were hit by a Ch-101 on October 23 and by a Kalibr cruise missile on October 31,” says one of the engineers on site. “On December 19, a Shahed drone destroyed one of the transformers.”

Anti-tank barricades and checkpoints adorn a narrow country road somewhere in the vastness of Ukraine. Publication of their exact location is prohibited because they are subject to strict security regulations. State-of-the-art American Patriot air defense systems, with their characteristic missile launchers, can be seen positioned among the autumnal trees. It almost feels like the entrance to a secret military base. After going through a security check, though, the steel gate opens up to a power substation, not some miracle weapon one might otherwise have expected.

Since last winter, these facilities have been among the best-secured locations in the country. Russia has deployed myriad airstrikes in a systematic attempt to destroy Ukraine’s energy supply and break the civilian population’s will to fight during the cold season. This particular facility has also been targeted by the Russians on several occasions. “We were hit by a Ch-101 on October 23 and by a Kalibr cruise missile on October 31,” says one of the engineers on site. “On December 19, a Shahed drone destroyed one of the transformers.”

A new bulwark has been built to shield the facility this winter. “We have implemented various structural solutions to counter missiles and kamikaze drones,” Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, CEO of the Ukrainian electricity grid operator Ukrenergo, says during an interview in Kyiv. He avoids providing any further technical details for security reasons. “We’re talking about 200,000 tons of sand and 300,000 tons of concrete, thirty times more than in the world’s tallest skyscraper, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai.”

Following the Russian airstrikes, only two of the three huge metal blocks from the Soviet era are still in operation at this particular company substation. Everything must be done to protect the remaining ones.

A destroyed Ukrenergo transformer following a Russian attack in 2022. Foto: Alexander Epp / DER SPIEGEL

Prior to the Russian invasion, Ukraine had been connected to the Russian power grid, so engineers in the neighboring country know precisely where the critical points are in the Ukrainian supply. They could instantly leave hundreds of thousands of people in the dark with a single strike.

In 2022, Russia temporarily managed to knock out 45 percent of the high-voltage grid and half of Ukraine’s energy production. Reconstruction has been a slow process and will take years to complete, says Alexander Kharchenko, an expert at the Energy Industry Research Center, a Kyiv-based think tank. “We started our maintenance season in April, as we do every year, and will probably finish it in October 2029.”Further Russian attacks on the energy grid would be especially problematic. If successful, the situation could be even worse next year. And Ukraine is anticipating massive attacks. For the past several months, Russia has been using its missiles sparingly, perhaps saving them for winter. Industrial companies, politicians and Western allies have made enormous efforts since last winter to be as well prepared as possible.

“We took measures to protect the grid after the invasion, but we didn’t expect attacks on this scale,” says Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest energy producer. “We are much better prepared this year.” His company’s goal was to restore all losses on the electricity grid from the previous year, a goal it has managed to accomplish. The imperative now is to protect them to the degree possible with expanded air defenses, physical protection measures and ample spare parts.

DTEK engineers demonstrate how this could work on a new substation in Irpin, a suburb of Kyiv. The facility is located right next to its Soviet predecessor, which is littered with bullet holes. During the Battle of Kyiv in February 2022, large parts of the city were devastated, including elements of its energy supply. “More than 3,000 of these units were damaged throughout the greater Kyiv area,” says Serhii Buriak, who is leading the reconstruction effort.

Engineer Serhii Buriak in front of an old Soviet-era substation (in the foreground) and a new substation (yellow) in Irpin Foto: Alexander Epp / DER SPIEGEL

The damage in Irpin was so severe that DTEK decided to completely replace much of its equipment there. “We have repaired 10,000 lines,” says Buriak. “The residents had electricity again only 45 days after the occupation. The months before that were cold – people used generators and gas burners for heating and cooking.” They managed to rebuild everything together with colleagues from all over Ukraine and with help from the neighborhood. Buriak believes the country is now well equipped for the winter and that mobile repair teams are ready to intervene immediately in the event of attacks.

Such teams, though, are merely the last bastion in a multi-layered protective shield designed to protect the country’s energy supply from the worst. The first and most important level is air defense, which is in a much better position than last year thanks to Western aid. “Last October, we didn’t even have systems like Iris-T or Nasams that can shoot down cruise missiles,” says Ukrenergo CEO Kudrytskyi. “Now, we can shoot down faster ballistic missiles with Patriots.”

Traces of devastation: damage to the Ukrenergo substation after several airstrikes last year. Foto: Alexander Epp / DER SPIEGEL

The wreckage of a cruise missile engine following airstrikes on the substation. Foto: Alexander Epp / DER SPIEGEL

In fact, the NATO member states made a significant effort and donated pretty much everything they could gather from their warehouses and on the world market. Germany recently sent additional Patriot and Iris-T systems and reportedly even bought back Gepard anti-aircraft tanks from Qatar. The Americans have also been diligent in their deliveries, and have even shown some creativity: They’ve apparently figured out a way to mount their old rockets on Soviet launchers.

Still, not all regions are equally well protected. An almost surreal normality prevails in the capital city of Kyiv, but elsewhere, air-raid sirens still go off several times a day. At times, soldiers have nothing else to fire at drones but their machine guns.

Meanwhile, Russia has also been preparing for the next winter of war. Moscow has worked over the summer to replenish its missile supplies, although likely not quite to the same level as last year. Experts fear the Ukrainians could run out of anti-aircraft missiles at some point – partly because the West isn’t producing replacements quickly enough.

The Ukrainian municipalities have also taken precautions, the capital city of Kyiv in particular, for the eventuality that Russian missiles, drones or cruise missiles penetrate the air defenses and endanger the energy infrastructure. “We have procured 23 mobile boiler houses that can operate autonomously and supply certain parts of the city with heat,” says Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. “We have purchased quite a large number of power generators. We are now preparing heating points. But heating points can’t solve the problem of heating a city with 3.5 million inhabitants if the heating fails completely.”

Many of the measures undertaken in the public sector have been financed by international donors. “Ninety-five percent comes from our allies, Ukrenergo was able to raise 1 billion euros for the reconstruction,” says CEO Kudrytskyi. Some of the substations, for example, have come from Germany.

Ukrenergo CEO Volodymyr Kudrytskyj speaks to DER SPIEGEL during an interview in Kyiv. Foto: Alexander Epp / DER SPIEGEL

But the situation is different in the private sector, which can only count on indirect aid. “We used our own resources to restore 140 megawatts of supply at a cost of 200 million euros,” says DTEK CEO Timchenko. “To reach 500 megawatts, we would need another 400 million euros. For that, though, we would need support, which we are not currently getting.” An important step would be the decentralization of the energy grid with renewable energies. “One missile can destroy 300 megawatts of our thermal energy production, but not 50 wind turbines with the same output.”

A destroyed Russian tank in 2023 Foto: Evgeniy Maloletka / AP

Those are, of course, more long-term projects. Still, it seems as though Ukraine is prepared for many eventualities this winter. So far, there haven’t been any major attacks on the energy infrastructure. And by attacking the Russian network, the Ukrainians have also already made clear that they are ready to strike back this year.

With additional reporting by Halyna Rudyk, Christian Esch and Fedir Petrov