“Iran’s Lebanon-Based Militia Hezbollah Prepares for Possible War”, Der Spiegel

By Christoph Reuter, Berlin, 14.08.2024

The heavily armed Hezbollah militia would play a central role in any armed conflict between Iran and Israel. A visit with a Hezbollah functionary in Beirut provides insight into the group’s thinking.

Israelischer Luftschlag auf Hisbollah-Kämpfer in der Stadt Schamaa im Südlibanon Foto: Kawnat Haju / AFP

The explosion out of the sky last Tuesday afternoon penetrated windows and walls. All of Beirut shuddered. Then came the second boom, followed a little later by three more thunderous cracks. What sounded like airstrikes were actually two Israeli fighter jets flying low over Lebanon’s capital, breaking the sound barrier just before Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, began a speech calling for revenge.

It had been exactly one week since Israel’s air force had killed Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s top military commanders, in a residential building in the center of South Beirut. That attack came in retaliation for a rocket fired from South Lebanon, which days earlier had killed a dozen children and teenagers on a soccer field in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. Hours after Shukr’s death, suspected Israeli agents in Tehran assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas.

A propaganda poster showing the late Iranian Quds Force chief Soleimani and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut at the site of the Israeli strike that killed Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr Foto: Anwar Amro / AFP

Since then, the world has been anxiously waiting for Iran to retaliate against Israel. Will it finally plunge the Middle East into the apocalypse?

In southern Lebanon and Beirut, the fear of the devastation that Israel’s air force could inflict is very real. But on this Tuesday afternoon, the roar of the accelerating jets was meant as intimidation. Most passers-by simply stopped and looked up. At the “Long Beach” beach club, a handful of the few guests held their outstretched middle finger to the sky. A toddler cried on the empty promenade.

The skyline of Beirut in August 2024 Foto: Chiara Wettmann / DER SPIEGEL

An empty beach in Beirut Foto: Chiara Wettmann / DER SPIEGEL

While European countries, the United States, Australia and others are calling on their citizens to leave Lebanon and Western airlines have temporarily suspended flights to Beirut, the atmosphere in the city is oddly indifferent.

Iran’s Militia

With tens of thousands of active fighters and up to 150,000 rockets, Hezbollah is the strongest power player in Lebanon. The Shiite militia’s name means “party of God.” It is closely allied with Iran and partially funded by the regime in Tehran. Alongside the militias in Syria and Iraq as well as the Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza, it belongs to the “Axis of Resistance,” which Iran formed in the region to oppose Israel, the United States and their Arab allies.

If it comes to retaliation or even a major war, Hezbollah will be a key factor.

Dahiyeh, the densely populated, enormous Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut, is emptier than it has been since the last war against Israel, in 2006. Locals confirm that many families fled of their own accord after the attack on Shukr. But Hezbollah itself is also urging residents to leave: “They say it would be safer,” says Muhammad, who works as a salesman in a boutique in West Beirut. “They pay $200, $300 so that people can stay somewhere in the countryside. Almost all families are going. Naturally, we’re afraid!”

It is nerve-wracking to stand on the edge of the abyss every few months, he continued, adding that everyone feared a major Israeli attack following Hamas’ attack on Israel in early October. That was also the case again in mid-April, after Israel bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus and Iran fired missiles toward Israel for the first time – though with plenty of advance warning. Both times, a further escalation was averted at the last minute. But ordinary people like him, Muhammad says, are left with the feeling of being spectators to their own drama – and nobody knows how it will end.

Nasrallah’s speech on Tuesday also remained vague. He delivered a lengthy lecture on defiance, the 1982 war in Lebanon, and the red line that Israel had crossed with its assassinations. The most frequent word he used was “intizar,” or “waiting.” He says that the anxious waiting that the Israelis are now having to endure is already part of the retribution “that will surely come.”

But when?

A poster of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in Beirut in July Foto: Khaled Desouki / AFP

A mosque in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold Foto: Chiara Wettmann / DER SPIEGEL

This is the first time in the current conflict that Hezbollah itself has evacuated its stronghold of Dahiyeh. During a visit in April, the atmosphere was more relaxed. When rockets flew toward Israel on the night of April 14 and many Lebanese looked up at the sky in disbelief, a few neighbors had gathered on the roof. A businessman who splits his time between West Africa and Beirut and owns a sea-going motorboat said at the time that he was already very worried.

But that was only half the story.

An idea had also popped into his head while flashes of light from fired rockets could be seen in the distance. If Beirut’s airport were bombed, the country would be cut off from air traffic. Perhaps there was something to be gained from the apocalypse, he said, wondering aloud about “how much money one could make for a trip to Cyprus” if he converted his boat into a means of escape.

The catastrophe didn’t come at that time. And, four months later, it seems like it has only been postponed.

Majda Shams in the Golan Heights shortly after a rocket attack from Lebanon Foto: Ofir Berman

Resident of the Lebanese border town of Aita al-Shaab with a framed picture of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in June 2024 Foto: Mohammad Zaatari / AP

A Co-Founder of Hezbollah Explains

“We can’t avoid it this time,” says a man in his mid-sixties with thinning hair and the beginnings of a paunch, who is wearing a checked shirt and jeans. He can speak with some authority about Hezbollah, as he was a co-founder of the militia 42 years ago as well as a close friend of Fuad Shukr, the military commander, and other members of the top leadership, who were his neighbors in Dahiyeh. “I got to know Shukr back in 1978, when we were both fighting against Israel’s soldiers,” who were invading Lebanon for the first time that year.

The fact that he now has time to talk, even if only under the pseudonym “Abbas,” is due to the fact that he “retired” years ago. Shukr used to be slim and athletic and remained so for decades until a few years ago, Abbas explains, adding: “He put on weight because he hardly moved at all, only from one bunker to the next. Otherwise, he would’ve been killed a lot earlier.” Abbas didn’t know at first who the Israeli missile was aimed at. Nor does he know why his childhood friend from the lean days was staying in the building right next to his own apartment. “He didn’t live there,” he notes.

A building in Beirut destroyed by the Israeli strike on Fuad Shukr Foto: Wael Hamzeh / EPA

Hezbollah fighters with the coffin of Fuad Shukr on August 1 in Beirut Foto: Hussein Malla / AP

When the explosion rocked the neighborhood, Abbas was standing a few blocks away. He immediately tried to call his wife, but she didn’t pick up. “I expected to find my whole family dead,” he says. Then he ran home and saw his wife trembling on the balcony. Everyone had survived. The next day, he sent the family north into the mountains to be safe. He stayed behind.

Killing Shukr in the middle of Beirut has rendered Hezbollah’s previous calculations obsolete, Abbas says, adding: “If we continue to just take it in silence, it will encourage Israel to kill our people everywhere at will. We must stop that. Now.” It is the flip side of the logic of deterrence that can be heard from Israel. And that’s how wars get started.

Israel’s Invasion Fostered Hezbollah’s Rise

When Abbas, Shukr and others banded together in Lebanon in the early 1980s, they still called themselves “Khomeinists,” the followers of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Iranian revolutionary leader. Several factors played a role in the emergence of Hezbollah. During the civil war, which had been ravaging the country since 1975, the Shiite religious group only included the small militia of the charismatic preacher Musa al-Sadr. With foreign assistance, Maronite Christians, Sunni Palestinian refugees and Druze waged fierce battles for power in the tiny state. At the same time, Ayatollah Khomeini came to power in Iran in 1979, and his “Islamic revolution” aimed to strengthen the Shiites’ position among the competing branches of Islam. Cadres of the Iranian “Sepah-e Pasdaran,” the Revolutionary Guards, ultimately provided decisive assistance for the establishment of Hezbollah in the form of money, weapons and training.

Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon in 1982, which was followed by 18 years of occupation, was decisive for the militia’s continued rise. The predominantly Shiite population initially greeted Israeli soldiers with relief. People were tired of Palestinian guerrillas firing on Israel from their villages while they had to pay for the consequences themselves.

Fires after Israeli air strikes on Beirut in 1982 Foto: Roland Neveu / LightRocket / Getty Images

Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon during the invasion of Lebanon in 1982 Foto: AP

However, the mood changed in 1983 as a result of the ruthlessness and violence of the Israeli troops. Meir Dagan, who later became head of the Mossad, ordered the assassination of a prominent Shiite cleric, which only hardened the resistance. Israeli paid the “South Lebanese Army,” a militia of local Christians, to run a torture prison in the small town of Khiam. Hezbollah relied on attacks with explosives and suicide bombers. By the time the civil war ended in 1990, the militia had evolved into a popular national resistance movement.

Hezbollah’s Brief Coup

The moment of Hezbollah’s triumph came in 2000, when Israel’s army abruptly withdrew from Lebanon. For the last several years, Nasrallah has only been joining public party events via video feed. But, at that time, the Hezbollah leader appeared in person on a large stage in the city of Bint Jbeil. A cheering crowd in the tens of thousands hailed him as a liberator.

Residents of Beirut watching a speech by Hassan Nasrallah during the 2006 war with Israel Foto: Kevork Djansezian / AP

The Lebanese city of Tripoli during the country’s civil war in 1985 Foto: Abu Kharrub / AFP

He would have liked to retain this role. But now the enemy had left their land – except for few small areas that were still occupied and that the party had vowed to liberate. Instead, as a loyal vassal of the regimes in Iran and Syria, it was allegedly responsible for the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri, Lebanon’s prime minister at the time, as well as for the military rescue of the dictatorship in Syria a decade later. The fighter against foreign occupation had turned into a foreign occupier. In Lebanon, the tightly organized party established itself as a state within a state.

Lebanon will never forget May 7, 2008, when the government of then Prime Minister Fuad Siniora tried to take two things away from Hezbollah: its autonomous cell phone network and the post of head of security at Beirut’s airport. It was a direct attack on the foundation of the party’s power. Within hours, heavily armed Hezbollah units overran Beirut, occupied parliament and government buildings, and partially burned down the “Future TV” station of Hariri, the murdered former prime minister.

Government supporters called it “a coup” and asked the international community for help. But the Hezbollah putschists hadn’t planned on staying, as this brief demonstration of strength was enough for them. In political terms, Hezbollah hasn’t been hurt at all by the dramatic economic crisis that has plagued Lebanon since 2019. The less the state can provide for its citizens, the more important the parties that take care of their clientele have become. Hezbollah operates its own social welfare program, construction companies, medical care facilities and schools. When the Lebanese pound plummeted in value, Hezbollah members proudly showed themselves in a video displaying dollar notes. They were still receiving their salary in foreign currency.

Hezbollah’s Interests

Hezbollah rules from the sidelines. The party, which also has members in parliament, does not want to officially take over the state. Internally, this could mean the return of civil war and, externally, it could put added pressure on the financial systems and the country as a whole.

But no one dares to work against its interests – and that includes doing anything about one of the most spectacular murder cases of recent years. Lokman Slim, a documentary filmmaker and author who was also the most prominent voice of peaceful resistance to Hezbollah’s claim to power – was murdered on the night of February 4, 2021. Several vehicles of the hit squad were identified using surveillance videos. As soon as they disappeared into a Hezbollah stronghold, there were no more recordings. That’s just the way it is, said the investigating magistrate with resignation. No suspects were ever identified.

Documentary filmmaker and author Lokman Slim Foto: NABIL MOUNZER / EPA-EFE

Now Hezbollah is threatening to drag Lebanon into a war with Israel and divide the country. Many Maronite Christians are becoming increasingly critical of the party. Shocked by the brutality of the war that Israel is waging in Gaza, Druze and Sunnis are willingly accommodating refugees from Beirut and the south.

Hezbollah’s Rocket Arsenal

Abbas, the chain-smoking veteran of the founding era, repeatedly oscillates between the extremes during the course of the conversation, which lasts several hours. “Victory or death! We can claim victory because we are in the right,” he rages before indulging in religious fantasies. “When the blood of our martyrs is spilled, the angels will race to catch it!”

Then he returns to sober assessments. “Maybe it will turn out like 2006,” he says, referring to the last war, when Israel’s air force caused widespread destruction, but its troops withdrew from southern Lebanon after a few weeks. “The Israelis will destroy Dahiyeh again,” Abbas continues. “But, unlike back then, we can also hit Israel hard.” Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal far exceeds that of Hamas in terms of destructive power; it could reach all cities in Israel and overwhelm its Iron Dome missile defense system.

For a decade and a half, until last October, mutual deterrence kept the two sides from fighting each other. And the eagerness to avoid confrontation produced some rather odd incidents. In 2020, for example, the New York Times revealed that, before planned attacks, Israel had warned Hezbollah members by telephone to immediately seek safety. A surveillance video showed an Israeli missile hitting the road in front of a Hezbollah Jeep Cherokee, the occupants running outside, and then one of them coming back to the vehicle to recover some bags and rucksacks. Moments later, a second missile turned the SUV into a fireball.

In late 2022, Lebanon and Israel agreed on a common maritime border, which was crucial for resolving the question of who owns which natural gas deposits in the Mediterranean. Officially, it was the Lebanese government at the negotiating table. But, behind the scenes, the decisions were really being made by Hezbollah.

“That was a good time, as people were able to live their lives in peace,” says Abbas, which is surprising given his previous pro-war comments. His contradictions reflect the divided nature of Hezbollah’s backers. In fact, a lot of them don’t want another war.

After five years of economic crisis, the country is in tatters, surviving mainly on remittances from the huge diaspora. And no one expects that Qatar and Saudi Arabia will pay billions for reconstruction this time, as they did in 2006.

Creating the “Axis of Resistance”

In the end, the decision about how Hezbollah will react will be made in Tehran. Iran was the first country to perfect hybrid warfare. General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by an American drone strike near Baghdad’s airport in early 2020, was the co-creator and virtuoso leader of a gigantic apparatus of Iran-loyal militias from half a dozen nations.

The founding of Hezbollah more than 40 years ago was just the beginning. It was only around 1998, when Soleimani took command of the Quds Force, the foreign arm of the Revolutionary Guards, that the expansion of power really began. Shiite fighters were recruited, cells formed and militias organized in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, and later also in Yemen.

Hezbollah fighters with Lebanon flags during the celebration of Al Quds Day in 2024 Foto: Hassan Ammar / AP

Hezbollah fighters with anti-tank weapons in southern Lebanon Foto: Hassan Ammar / AP

The military power that Soleimani’s steadily growing apparatus has at its disposal was demonstrated in Syria. To save Bashar al-Assad, a long-time ally of Iran, Soleimani first sent Hezbollah fighters to Syria. These were followed by ones from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the combined total reaching roughly 50,000 men. Even after Soleimani’s death, all the strings are still being pulled in Tehran. Hezbollah now has the key role of controlling all allied Arab militias and training them in various technologies, such as those for modern rockets.

In late fall 2023, DER SPIEGEL met in Beirut with one of the Hezbollah officials responsible for building the rockets. As long as he remained anonymous, he was willing to talk about his operations, some of which he documented with photos.

For years, he had been training cadres in Iraq, Syria and Yemen to build rockets and modify existing import models. “The Syrians were OK, while the Iraqis were mainly waiting for the dinner break,“ he said, laughing about his allies. “But the Houthis were fantastic.” The unpredictable militia has an iron grip on western Yemen, attacks commercial vessels in the Red Sea and, a few weeks back, hit Israel with a drone from a distance of 2,000 kilometers. He calls them “the best students I’ve ever had,” adding that they are “eager to learn and quick learners.”

All these militias are basically united by their shared unconditional loyalty to Khomeini’s heirs. Iran’s strategists have managed to turn tens of thousands of foreigners into faith-inspired followers and convince them to help them pursue Iran’s own national goals.

A poster of the assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyyeh in August 2024 in Beirut Foto: Chiara Wettmann / DER SPIEGEL

Images of Hezbollah martyrs at a cemetery in the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh Foto: Chiara Wettmann / DER SPIEGEL

This hybrid militia apparatus is no longer exclusively financed by Tehran. According to high-ranking Iraqi officials, a decade ago, then Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gave Iran billions of dollars from Iraq’s abundant, barely controlled oil revenues.

For its part, Hezbollah has become a discreet global player with the help of the Lebanese Shiite diaspora spread across the world. For decades, it has had a hand in smuggling cocaine from South America to the United States and Europe as well as in laundering money on a massive scale, such as by shipping loads of cheap used cars from the U.S. to West Africa, where they are sold.

Whether in Venezuela, Brazil, Senegal or the Ivory Coast, the organization can rely on Shiite Lebanese everywhere, many of whom emigrated there two or three generations ago.

Iran’s leaders do not want to sacrifice Hezbollah, this powerful centerpiece of their deterrent against Israel, for Gaza or the Palestinian cause.

A Small Step to a Chain Reaction

So far, Iran has managed to restrain itself and the other militias in its shadow network so as not to risk a major war with Israel. But with its double strike – on Shukr and then Haniyeh – Israel’s cabinet has put pressure on Hezbollah and Iran. While Israeli commentators express satisfaction that the military’s and Mossad’s actions have restored deterrence, those affected see it the other way round. “Israel has interpreted restraint as weakness. If our leaders don’t want to lose the movement’s trust, they must act,” says Abbas, the Hezbollah veteran, before disappearing.

On the afternoon of August 7, one or two thousand people gathered in front of the platform bearing the coffin of Amin Hassan Badreddine in Dahiyeh. The young fighter, a nephew of the famous Hezbollah commander Mustafa Badreddine, had been killed by an Israeli missile in southern Lebanon the day before. Chanting “Down with Israel!”, they vowed to avenge him and fight.

The death of Amin Hassan Badreddine brought thousands of mourners onto the streets of Dahiyeh, a suburb of Beirut. Foto: Chiara Wettmann / DER SPIEGEL

Women mourning the death of Amin Hassan Badreddine Foto: Chiara Wettmann / DER SPIEGEL

It’s only a small step to a chain reaction. If Hezbollah launches a retaliatory strike against Israel, the latter will strike back even more forcefully, and then Iran could give Hezbollah and the other loyal militias in Iraq, Yemen and Syria the green light to attack Israel. The restraint that the United States has struggled to preserve would end as soon as American forces intervened in Israel’s favor.

But then what? Israeli troops already marched into Lebanon in 1978, 1982 and 2006. There has never been a victory, only a postponement until the next round. An attack on Iran would be even riskier, an invasion impossible. Israel’s cabinet and generals could only rely on airstrikes to persuade Tehran to capitulate. But, historically, airstrikes have rarely led to surrender on their own. No one has a realistic plan on how to permanently end the war.

Meanwhile, the people in Beirut and southern Lebanon have no choice. “We survive from day to day and wait,” says Muhammad, the salesman who fled. “What other choice do we have?”