“Collapse in Democratic Turnout Fueled Trump’s Victory”, The Wall Street Journal
By John West and Kara Dapena
Nov. 8, 2024
Party turnout dropped across the board, especially in non-battleground states, paving the way for Trump’s resurgence
Vice President Kamala Harris tried to build it, but they didn’t come.
Across every core Democratic bloc, voters didn’t turn out. And the electorate that did turn out shifted toward President-elect Donald Trump, a Wall Street Journal analysis of preliminary vote data shows.
Turnout
Two-party vote total,
change from 2020
Vote share
Democrat’s share of two-party
vote, change from 2020
U.S.: -1.4%
U.S.: -2.6 pct. pts.
COUNTIES, BY 2020 RESULT
Biden won by
10+ pct. pts.
157 counties
-5.9%
-2.6 pct. pts.
Biden won by
<10 pct. pts.
166 counties
-3.3
-3.2
Trump won by
<10 pct. pts.
275 counties
-0.1
-2.0
Trump won by
10+ pct. pts.
1,642 counties
+2.0
-1.4
…and they swung
for Trump compared
with 2020.
Fewer voters turned out,
particularly in counties
Biden won…
Length (3 minutes)Queue
Nationwide turnout notched down slightly compared with 2020. But among counties that President Biden won in 2020, the declines on Election Day this year were especially sharp—and voters moved away from the Democrats. While Harris’s organizational and advertising efforts successfully moved voters to the polls in the battleground states, the overall voter pool shifted toward Trump, compared to 2020. Across the rest of the country, Democratic turnout plummeted. The Journal’s analysis includes counties where nearly 100% of the votes had been counted as of Thursday evening.
Turnout
Two-party vote total,
change from 2020
Vote share
Democrat’s share of two-party
vote, change from 2020
SWING
STATES
U.S.: -1.4%
U.S.: -2.6 pct. pts.
Michigan
+1.7%
-2.2 pct. pts.
North Carolina
+2.2
-1.0
Wisconsin
+3.8
-0.8
Georgia
+5.2
-1.2
Party switching alone doesn’t explain Harris’s defeat. “Democrats sat out the election,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters translated into a fractured coalition, with a swath of key groups sharply reducing their support.
Turnout
Two-party vote total,
change from 2020
Vote share
Democrat’s share of two-party
vote, change from 2020
COUNTIES WITH
HIGHEST SHARE OF
U.S.: -1.4%
U.S.: -2.6 pct. pts.
Black residents
524 counties
-3.8%
-2.8 pct. pts.
College graduates
402 counties
-2.2
-2.6
Hispanic residents
347 counties
-1.6
-4.1
This sagging support came despite efforts by Harris’s campaign to shore up Black and Hispanic votes with targeted rallies in key battleground states and policy proposals on issues affecting minority voters. She also came up short in America’s most well-educated communities, a now-core part of the Democratic base. Her failure to connect with voters in the nation’s big metropolitan areas left Trump’s successes in rural, suburban and exurban counties in crucial swing states unmatched.
Her attempts at offense likewise failed. She tried to make inroads with Republicans skeptical of the scandal-plagued former president, campaigning with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney and offering to put a Republican in her cabinet. But she did not make sufficient gains in the suburban communities where many of those skeptical voters live.
Vote share
Democrat’s share of two-party
vote, change from 2020
Turnout
Two-party vote total,
change from 2020
U.S.: -1.4%
U.S.: -2.6 pct. pts.
COUNTIES WITH HIGHEST
Median income
394 counties
+0.1%
-2.2 pct. pts.
Share of white residents
451 counties
+0.3
-1.2
Median age
395 counties
-2.4
+2.4
Harris also lost ground in historic hotbeds of Democratic support. In Trump’s 2016 run, he transformed white working-class counties into Republican strongholds. On Tuesday, he deepened his support in many of the hardest-hit manufacturing hubs across the Rust Belt, including in Democrats’ once-vaunted “blue wall”—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democratic vote share further declined in blue-collar counties with lower educational attainment and income levels.
Turnout
Two-party vote total, change from 2020
Vote share
Democrat’s share of two-party vote, change from 2020
U.S.: -1.4%
U.S.: -2.6 pct. pts.
COUNTIES WITH
Lowest median income
475 counties
-4.7%
-3.5 pct. pts.
Highest union membership rate
347 counties
-2.3
-2.9
Lowest share of college graduates
478 counties
-2.2
-2.6
Note: As of 7:16 p.m. EST Nov. 7. Analysis includes 2,240 counties where 99% of votes are counted. College graduates is bachelor’s degree or higher.
Sources: American Community Survey and Cornell University Buffalo Co-Lab (demographics); Associated Press (results)