Issue of the Week: War
Israel launched major air strikes on nuclear facilties and the militay chain of command in Iran yesterday. They have announced strikes will continue. Iran has begun retaliatory strikes on Israel. Declared or not, war is ensuing.
We had prepared two posts on important issues, then pulled them after the Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program and other targets.
We have now posted on this issue. This is the most important and precarious story on the planet now.
We’ve written about the issues involved for years and we will follow-up extensively as events unfold.
For now, we post a number of articles from The New York Times:
What to Know About Israel’s Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Program and Military Leaders
Israel attacked Tehran early Friday and killed many of the country’s top military leaders and scientists. The United States said it was not involved in the strikes.
Listen to this article · 8:20 min Learn more
By Farnaz Fassihi, Aaron Boxerman, Ephrat Livni and Euan Ward
Published June 12, 2025, Updated June 13, 2025
The Israeli military launched a wave of airstrikes inside Iran on Friday, attacking dozens of targets, including nuclear sites, and wiping out much of the country’s military chain of command along with several nuclear scientists.
The strikes marked a dramatic escalation in the long-running conflict between two of the most powerful militaries in the Middle East. Iran called the attack “an act of war” and said it would retaliate.
Here’s what to know:
- What happened in Iran?
- Who was killed in the attack?
- Why did Israel attack Iran?
- How did Iran respond to the attack?
- How did the United States respond?
What happened in Iran?
Israel attacked at least six military bases, residential homes at two highly secured complexes for military commanders and multiple residential buildings around the capital, Tehran, according to four senior Iranian officials. The Israeli military has indicated that the attacks will continue.
Iran’s state media showed blasts across Tehran, with smoke and fire billowing from buildings. Airlines quickly cleared civilian flights from the skies over swaths of the Middle East. State television broadcasts showed damaged apartment buildings, with debris scattered in the streets.
Explosions were also reported in the Iranian cities of Isfahan, Arak and Kermanshah, at military and industrial complexes.
Where Israel attacked Iran
Israel’s strikes targeted some of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities, including Natanz, its main uranium enrichment facility. Social media footage verified by The Times shows flames and thick black smoke billowing from Natanz, shortly after a series of explosions was reported at around 4:18 a.m. local time.
The strikes “significantly degraded” the enrichment facility, according to the chief Israeli military spokesman, Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin. It is still too early to know how much damage Israel did. The Natanz facility is not deeply buried, but the centrifuge halls that are used to enrich uranium are 50 yards or more beneath the desert, and covered by highly reinforced concrete.
Iran’s best-protected nuclear site, Fordow, near the city of Qom, is deep inside a mountain, estimated to be about half a mile below ground to protect it from bombing. Israel did not appear to have attacked it.
To do so would require repeated use of huge “bunker buster” bombs, and most experts think that cannot be done by Israel alone, without American help.
“If you don’t get Fordow,” said Brett McGurk, who has served as Middle East coordinator for several American presidents of both parties, “you haven’t eliminated their ability to produce weapons-grade material.”
Who was killed in the attack?
Iran’s state media reported that Israel killed at least three of the country’s top generals and two nuclear scientists.
They were identified as Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, the powerful chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces; Gen. Hossein Salami, commander in chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards; and Gen. Gholamali Rashid, the deputy commander of Iran’s armed forces, according to Iranian media reports.
Middle East Tensions: Live Updates
- The U.S. is positioning warships to help protect Israel and American forces from Iranian strikes.
- On the latest attack on Iran, Israel’s allies voice less support and more concern.
- The Middle East is tense as Israel’s attacks sink hopes for de-escalation.
The Israeli military also said it had killed the head of the airspace unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, along with two other senior commanders in the unit.There was no immediate comment from Iran regarding that claim.
Ali Shamkhani, an influential Iranian politician overseeing the nuclear talks with the United States, was among those killed on Friday, according to three senior officials and Iranian media reports. Two prominent nuclear scientists, Mohammad Mehdi Tehranji and Fereydoun Abbasi, were also killed when Israel attacked their homes.
For years, Israel targeted Iran’s senior military leadership and many of its top nuclear scientists with individual assassinations. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, moved swiftly on Friday to replace the slain military leaders in an apparent bid to project stability and prevent a power vacuum.
The Iranian news agency Fars, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, reported that at least 78 people had been killed and 329 others injured in the Israeli attacks on Friday. The agency said the figures were unofficial.
Why did Israel attack Iran?
Israeli officials said the strike was “pre-emptive,” though there was no immediate indication that Iran was planning to attack. In a statement, the Israeli military said it acted “in response to the Iranian regime’s ongoing aggression against Israel” and suggested there would be more to come, calling its attack “the first stage.”
An Israeli military official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity to comply with protocol, said the strikes had targeted elements of Iran’s nuclear program and the regime’s long-range missile capabilities.
He said that Iran has been advancing a secret program to assemble a nuclear weapon, according to Israeli intelligence, and that it has enough material to assemble 15 nuclear bombs within days. The official did not provide details to support the assessment.
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, called Iran’s nuclear program “a clear and present danger to Israel’s very survival” in a video statement.
How did Iran respond to the attack?
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in a statement that Israel “should anticipate a harsh punishment.”
In a letter to the U.N. Security Council, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, described the Israeli attacks as a “declaration of war” and said Iran would “respond decisively and proportionally.”
On Friday morning, the Israeli military said that Iran had sent about 100 drones toward Israel and said it had begun intercepting the drones outside of Israeli territory.
How did the United States respond?
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement that the United States was “not involved in strikes against Iran.”
Mr. Rubio warned Iran against any form of retaliation aimed at the U.S. forces in the region: “Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry, however, said on Friday the attack could not have happened without “coordination and authorization” from the United States. The ministry warned that the United States would also be responsible for the consequences.
The Israeli strike followed months of disagreement between President Trump and Mr. Netanyahu over how to handle Iran. Mr. Trump had discouraged Israel from attacking Iran while U.S.-Iran nuclear talks were ongoing.
President Trump, in his first public comments on the Israeli strike against Iran, said that Tehran had brought the destruction on itself by failing to accept an offer that the United States put on the table about two weeks ago in nuclear talks. The proposal would have eventually forced Iran to give up all uranium enrichment.
“I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal,” he wrote on Truth Social, his social media platform, on Friday morning. “I told them, in the strongest of words, to ‘just do it,’ but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done.”
American and Iranian negotiators had been planning to meet on Sunday in Oman for a sixth round of talks about Iran’s nuclear program. But on Friday after the attack, Iran announced on state television that it would not participate in the talks on Sunday, and until further notice.
Steven Erlanger, David E. Sanger, Francesca Regalado Isabel Kershner and Patrick Kingsley contributed reporting.
Farnaz Fassihi is the United Nations bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the organization, and also covers Iran and the shadow war between Iran and Israel. She is based in New York.
Aaron Boxerman is a Times reporter covering Israel and Gaza. He is based in Jerusalem.
Ephrat Livni is a Times reporter covering breaking news around the world. She is based in Washington.
Euan Ward is a reporter contributing to The Times from Beirut.
THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
How to Think About What’s Happening With Iran and Israel
June 13, 2025
Listen to this article · 8:44 min Learn more
Opinion Columnist
The full-scale Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure on Friday needs to be added to the list of pivotal, game-changing wars that have reshaped the Middle East since World War II and are known by just their dates — 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2023 — and now 2025.
It is far too early, and the possible outcomes so multifold, to say how the Middle East game of nations will be changed by the Israel-Iran conflict of 2025. All I would say now is that the extreme upside possibility — that this puts in motion a set of falling dominoes, ending with the toppling of the Iranian regime and its replacement by a more decent, secular and consensual one — and the extreme downside possibility that it sets the whole region on fire and sucks in the United States are both on the table.
Between these extremes still lies a middle-ground possibility — a negotiated solution — but not for long. President Trump has deftly used the Israeli attack to, in effect, say to the Iranians: “I am still ready to negotiate a peaceful end to your nuclear program and you might want to go there fast — because my friend Bibi is C-R-A-Z-Y. I am waiting for your call.”
Given this wide range of possibilities, the best thing that I can offer to those watching at home are the key variables that I will be tracking to determine which of these — or some other I can’t anticipate — is the most likely outcome.
First: What makes this Iran-Israel conflict so profound is Israel’s vow to continue the fight this time until it eliminates Iran’s nuclear weapon-making capability — one way or another.
Iran invited that, vastly accelerating its enrichment of uranium to near weapons grade. It had begun aggressively disguising those efforts to such a new degree that even the International Atomic Energy Agency declared on Thursday that Iran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations, the first time the agency has declared that in 20 years. Israel has cocked its gun and aimed at the Iranian nuclear program several times in the past 15 years, but each time either under U.S. pressure or doubts by its own military, it stood down at the last minute — which is why it is impossible to exaggerate what is happening today.
Second: The big technical question I have is whether Israel’s bombing of Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, like Natanz, which is buried deep underground, induced sufficient concussive shock to the centrifuges used to enrich uranium — and overcome their shock absorbers — to make them inoperable at least for a while. If nothing else, one has to assume that the Israeli strike most likely bombed the entries to underground facilities to slow down their work. The Israeli Army spokesman said Israel inflicted significant damage to Natanz, Iran’s biggest enrichment facility, but it’s less clear how Fordow, another enrichment facility, might have been affected, if at all.
If Israel succeeds in damaging the Iranian nuclear project enough to force at least a temporary halt to its enrichment operations, that would certainly be a significant military gain for Israel, justifying the operation.
Third: What actually interests me just as much is the impact this conflict could have on the region — particularly Iran’s longstanding, malign influence over Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, where Tehran nurtured and armed local militias to indirectly control those countries and ensure that they never moved toward pro-Western consensual governments.
Removing the dead hand of Iran from the neck of these regimes, which began with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to decapitate and cripple Iran’s Hezbollah militia, has already paid dividends in Lebanon and Syria, where new, pluralistic leaders have taken power. Alas, they are both still in a frail state, but they have hope — in Iraq as well — that did not exist before. And their escape from Iran’s sphere of influence has been broadly popular among their people.
Fourth: One of the things that has always struck me about Netanyahu is his strategic acumen as a player in the regional theater and his strategic incompetence as a local player vis-à-vis the Palestinians. It is because as a regional player his mind is for the most part unencumbered by ideological and political constraints. But as a local player in Gaza, for instance, his decision-making is not just influenced by, but dominated by, his personal political survival needs, his ideological commitment to preventing a Palestinian state under any condition and his dependence on the crazy right in Israel to stay in power. He has therefore mired the Israeli Army in the quicksand of Gaza — a moral, economic and strategic disaster — with no plan for how to get out.
Fifth: If you are asking yourself how this conflict might affect your retirement investments, the thing to watch most closely is whether Iran tries to destabilize the Trump administration by taking actions to deliberately drive the price of oil into the stratosphere — and create inflation in the West. For instance, Iran could sink a couple of oil or gas tankers in the Strait of Hormuz or fill it with sea mines, effectively blockading oil and gas exports. Just that prospect is already pushing up oil prices.
Sixth: How is Israeli intelligence on Iran so good that it pinpointed the locations of and killed its two top military leaders, not to mention a number of other senior officers? Of course, the Mossad and the Israeli NSA cybercommand, Unit 8200, are very good at what they do. But if you want to know their real secret, watch the streaming series “Tehran” on Apple TV+. It fictionalizes the work of an Israeli Mossad agent in Tehran. What you learn from that series, which is also true in real life, is how many Iranian officials are ready to work for Israel because of how much they hate their own government. This clearly makes it relatively easy for Israel to recruit agents in the Iranian government and military at the highest levels.
This reality not only pays first-order dividends like the precise targeting manifested in Friday’s strike but also produces a second-order advantage for Israel: Every time Iran’s military and political leaders gather to plan operations against Israel, each one has to ask himself if the person sitting next to him is an Israeli agent. That really slows down planning and innovation.
Add to this the fact that Iran’s supreme leader just saw his two top generals assassinated — the chief of staff of the armed forces and the commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards. He surely realizes that Israel could eliminate him. One has to assume, therefore, he is hiding deep in a bunker somewhere, which also has to slow down decision-making.
Seventh: If Israel fails in this endeavor — and by failure I mean this Iranian regime is wounded but is still able to reconstitute its ability to build a nuclear weapon and try to control Arab capitals — it could mean a war of attrition between the two most powerful militaries in the region. This would make the region even more unstable than ever, spiking oil crises and possibly prompting Iran to lash out and attack pro-America Arab regimes and U.S. forces in the area. That would leave the Trump administration no choice but to jump in, probably with the goal of not just ending that war but ending this Iranian regime. Then who knows what would happen.
Last, unlike in Gaza, Israel has gone out of its way to avoid killing large numbers of Iranian citizens, because ultimately Israel wants them to take out their rage on their regime for squandering so many resources building a nuclear weapon — and not on Israel.
Speaking in English in a video shortly after the attack, Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people directly: “We do not hate you. You are not our enemies. We have a common enemy: a tyrannical regime that tramples you. For nearly 50 years, this regime has robbed you of the chance for a good life.”
Iranians are not going to be inspired by Netanyahu, but there should be no doubt that this was already an unpopular regime and you can’t predict what might happen now that it has been militarily humiliated by Israel. It was only three years ago that Iran’s clerical regime arrested over 20,000 people and killed over 500, including some who were executed, in an effort to stamp out a popular uprising that exploded after the regime’s “morality police” detained a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini, because she had not fully covered her hair underneath a compulsory veil. She died in custody.
Looking forward, the two most important lessons one can derive from history are: Regimes like Iran’s look strong, until they don’t — so they can go quickly. And in the Middle East, the opposite of autocracy is not necessarily democracy. It can also be prolonged disorder. So as much as I would like to see this government be toppled, beware of the falling pillars.