{"id":10981,"date":"2020-10-19T05:32:12","date_gmt":"2020-10-19T12:32:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=10981"},"modified":"2020-10-19T05:32:12","modified_gmt":"2020-10-19T12:32:12","slug":"community-outbreaks-of-covid-19-often-emerge-after-trumps-campaign-rallies-stat-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=10981","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Community outbreaks of Covid-19 often emerge after Trump\u2019s campaign rallies&#8221;, STAT News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0<span class=\"author-name author-main\">Zach Nayer,\u00a0<\/span>October 16, 2020<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"big-cap-wrap\"><span class=\"big-cap\">I<\/span><\/span>n mid-May I sat in the backyard of my family\u2019s home garbed in graduation regalia and, via Zoom, joined my medical school classmates to read these words of the Hippocratic oath: \u201cthat into whatsoever house I shall enter, it shall be for the good of the sick.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"media-wrap\">\n<figure class=\"media\"><picture class=\"media-content featured-image-crop\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/GettyImages-1228713310-768x432.jpg 1x, https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/GettyImages-1228713310-1600x900.jpg 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 869px)\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/GettyImages-1228713310-1600x900.jpg 1x\" media=\"(min-width: 870px) and (max-width: 1023px)\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/GettyImages-1228713310-768x432.jpg 1x, https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/GettyImages-1228713310-1600x900.jpg 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1024px)\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/GettyImages-1228713310-645x645.jpg\" alt=\"NEWPORT NEWS Trump rally\" \/><\/picture><figcaption class=\"media-label\"><span class=\"media-caption\">With Air Force One behind him, President Trump speaks during a campaign rally last month at Newport News\/Williamsburg International Airport in Newport News, Va.<\/span><cite class=\"media-credit\">DREW ANGERER\/GETTY IMAGES<\/cite><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>When President Trump held a mass campaign rally in Newport News, where I now work, at the end of September, he did so against the explicit warning of <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/election-2020-virus-outbreak-health-virginia-public-health-beadd1b110c4a55bd2c13974722ec198\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">local public health officials<\/a>. He was entering this community \u2014 our house \u2014 not for the good of the sick but to promote himself. The gathering may have brought sickness to the community. As a new physician, I find that deeply disturbing.<\/p>\n<p>As the death toll of Covid-19 heads toward 220,000 in the United States alone, more deaths than in any other country in the world, the president, who is currently convalescing from Covid-19 himself, has spent the past several months crisscrossing a pandemic-ravaged country in his bid for reelection. The crowds he draws are fertile breeding grounds for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, followed by community outbreaks.<\/p>\n<p>The president has repeatedly held these gatherings not only in defiance of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/community\/large-events\/considerations-for-events-gatherings.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">public health guidelines<\/a>, but seemingly to spite them: downplaying the threat of the virus, eschewing basic public health principles such as wearing face coverings and packing his supporters shoulder to shoulder for political optics. Several early campaign events were indoors, such as in Tulsa, where there was a reported surge in cases afterwards. Former presidential candidate Herman Cain, who was co-chair of Black Voices for Trump and who attended the Tulsa rally without wearing a mask, tested positive for Covid-19 two days after the rally and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2020\/07\/30\/politics\/herman-cain-dies-coronavirus\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">died less than two weeks later<\/a>.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"read-more standard\">\n<div class=\"read-more-text\">\n<div class=\"read-more-label\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2020\/10\/13\/trump-iowa-covid-19-out-of-control\/\">Related: <\/a><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"read-more-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2020\/10\/13\/trump-iowa-covid-19-out-of-control\/\" data-post-id=\"593271\">In a campaign frenzy, Trump heads to Iowa \u2014 where Covid-19 is currently \u2018out of control\u2019<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Earlier this year, my colleague Usnish Majumdar joined a different kind of mass gathering: a Black Lives Matter protest in the streets of New York City with thousands of people. In stark contrast to the behavior encouraged at Trump\u2019s rallies, protesters not only wore masks but often carried extra face coverings for themselves and others. These good-faith attempts to adhere to public health guidelines paid off. <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/5a283df1b23ecc5c4b19803d320d0ebc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">No surge in Covid-19 cases<\/a> was observed following these protests.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ad-label\">Concerned about the impact of Trump\u2019s campaign rallies, Majumdar and I compiled county-based data of new coronavirus cases from each of his general election campaign rallies between Tulsa in late June and Newport News in late September. We looked at case numbers for the 14 days before and after each event to see if any patterns of community outbreaks emerged. We chose 14 days to consider the longest incubation periods, given the median onset from exposure to time of symptoms for Covid-19 is about three to five days.<\/p>\n<p>This may be an imperfect measurement. Some rally-goers travel to these events from other counties and go back home afterward, possibly contributing to community outbreaks elsewhere. And community outbreaks may, of course, be due to other events \u2014 correlation does not equal causation. But these data offer a metric to quantify the damage from a public health hazard. Any signal of community spread would likely originate closer to the epicenter of these events.<\/p>\n<p>What we found was sobering yet not surprising. Spikes in Covid-19 cases occurred in seven of the 14 cities and townships where these rallies were held: Tulsa; Phoenix; Old Forge, Penn.; Bemidji, Minn.; Mankato, Minn.; Oshkosh, Wis.; and Weston, Wis.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"visualizer media media-break\">\n<div class=\"media-content\">\n<div id=\"visualizer-594340\" class=\"visualizer-front  visualizer-front-594340\">\n<div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<div>Spikes in Covid-19 cases following Trump ralliesBemidji, Minn.Mankato,Minn.Old Forge,Penn.Oshkosh, Wis.Phoenix, Ariz.Tulsa, Okla.Weston, Wis.Day -14Day -12Day -10Day -8Day -6Day -4Day -2Day 0Day 2Day 4Day 6Day 8Day 10Day 12Day 14<\/p>\n<div>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>DAY<\/th>\n<th>BEMIDJI, MINN.<\/th>\n<th>MANKATO, MINN.<\/th>\n<th>OLD FORGE, PENN.<\/th>\n<th>OSHKOSH, WIS.<\/th>\n<th>PHOENIX, ARIZ.<\/th>\n<th>TULSA, OKLA.<\/th>\n<th>WESTON, WIS.<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -14<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>0.8<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0.16<\/td>\n<td>0.22<\/td>\n<td>0.14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -13<\/td>\n<td>1.33<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1.2<\/td>\n<td>2.38<\/td>\n<td>0.38<\/td>\n<td>0.18<\/td>\n<td>0.11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -12<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1.5<\/td>\n<td>0.38<\/td>\n<td>0.08<\/td>\n<td>2.89<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -11<\/td>\n<td>0.333<\/td>\n<td>1.067<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>2.125<\/td>\n<td>0.386<\/td>\n<td>0.462<\/td>\n<td>0.286<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -10<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>1.27<\/td>\n<td>1.6<\/td>\n<td>1.63<\/td>\n<td>0.37<\/td>\n<td>0.36<\/td>\n<td>0.36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -9<\/td>\n<td>0.33<\/td>\n<td>1.47<\/td>\n<td>0.8<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>0.36<\/td>\n<td>0.43<\/td>\n<td>0.29<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -8<\/td>\n<td>0.33<\/td>\n<td>0.73<\/td>\n<td>0.4<\/td>\n<td>1.5<\/td>\n<td>0.3<\/td>\n<td>0.48<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -7<\/td>\n<td>1.667<\/td>\n<td>0.933<\/td>\n<td>1.2<\/td>\n<td>2.125<\/td>\n<td>0.63<\/td>\n<td>0.622<\/td>\n<td>0.357<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -6<\/td>\n<td>1.33<\/td>\n<td>0.67<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>2.38<\/td>\n<td>0.63<\/td>\n<td>0.32<\/td>\n<td>0.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -5<\/td>\n<td>0.67<\/td>\n<td>0.87<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>0.5<\/td>\n<td>0.69<\/td>\n<td>0.61<\/td>\n<td>0.18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -4<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0.67<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>2.38<\/td>\n<td>0.95<\/td>\n<td>0.53<\/td>\n<td>1.11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -3<\/td>\n<td>0.667<\/td>\n<td>1.4<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>1.625<\/td>\n<td>0.946<\/td>\n<td>0.667<\/td>\n<td>0.143<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -2<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>1.67<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>1.88<\/td>\n<td>0.81<\/td>\n<td>1.04<\/td>\n<td>0.61<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day -1<\/td>\n<td>2.33<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>2.13<\/td>\n<td>0.65<\/td>\n<td>0.97<\/td>\n<td>0.75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 0<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 1<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>0.667<\/td>\n<td>1.2<\/td>\n<td>0.625<\/td>\n<td>0.478<\/td>\n<td>1.096<\/td>\n<td>0.964<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 2<\/td>\n<td>1.67<\/td>\n<td>0.73<\/td>\n<td>1.2<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>0.92<\/td>\n<td>0.37<\/td>\n<td>1.32<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 3<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>1.4<\/td>\n<td>1.6<\/td>\n<td>1.5<\/td>\n<td>1.05<\/td>\n<td>0.67<\/td>\n<td>1.75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 4<\/td>\n<td>0.33<\/td>\n<td>1.47<\/td>\n<td>0.8<\/td>\n<td>1.75<\/td>\n<td>1.16<\/td>\n<td>1.85<\/td>\n<td>1.07<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 5<\/td>\n<td>2.667<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>1.875<\/td>\n<td>1.123<\/td>\n<td>1.372<\/td>\n<td>1.179<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 6<\/td>\n<td>5.67<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>1.2<\/td>\n<td>1.38<\/td>\n<td>0.1<\/td>\n<td>1.13<\/td>\n<td>1.36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 7<\/td>\n<td>2.67<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>0.8<\/td>\n<td>1.25<\/td>\n<td>1.5<\/td>\n<td>0.61<\/td>\n<td>1.54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 8<\/td>\n<td>2.67<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>1.5<\/td>\n<td>1.52<\/td>\n<td>0.58<\/td>\n<td>1.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 9<\/td>\n<td>6.333<\/td>\n<td>1.6<\/td>\n<td>6.8<\/td>\n<td>2.375<\/td>\n<td>1.058<\/td>\n<td>0.41<\/td>\n<td>2.893<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 10<\/td>\n<td>3.33<\/td>\n<td>2.6<\/td>\n<td>3.6<\/td>\n<td>3.88<\/td>\n<td>1.37<\/td>\n<td>1.05<\/td>\n<td>2.36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 11<\/td>\n<td>4.33<\/td>\n<td>2.2<\/td>\n<td>1.2<\/td>\n<td>3.5<\/td>\n<td>0.81<\/td>\n<td>0.88<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 12<\/td>\n<td>4.33<\/td>\n<td>3.87<\/td>\n<td>1.6<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>1.06<\/td>\n<td>1.04<\/td>\n<td>0.96<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 13<\/td>\n<td>5.667<\/td>\n<td>1.533<\/td>\n<td>4.8<\/td>\n<td>2.375<\/td>\n<td>1.141<\/td>\n<td>0.942<\/td>\n<td>3.214<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Day 14<\/td>\n<td>8.67<\/td>\n<td>1.6<\/td>\n<td>2.4<\/td>\n<td>3.38<\/td>\n<td>1.14<\/td>\n<td>1.48<\/td>\n<td>3.11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"media-label\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"media-logo\" src=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/wp-content\/themes\/stat\/images\/stat-logo.svg\" alt=\"STAT\" \/><cite class=\"media-credit\">PATRICK SKERRETT \/ STAT<\/cite><span class=\"media-source\">SOURCE: ZACH NAYER AND USNISH MAJUMDAR <\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Now, less than two weeks after his Covid-19 diagnosis, the president is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2020\/10\/13\/trump-iowa-covid-19-out-of-control\/\">again holding large campaign rallies<\/a>. That\u2019s a mistake if he cares about the health of his constituents, the well-being of our communities, and frontline health care workers. He should instead suspend campaign activities that promote transmission of Covid-19. He should listen to doctors, the same professionals who treated him when he fell ill, urging him not to endanger the public health.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"read-more standard\">\n<div class=\"read-more-text\">\n<div class=\"read-more-label\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2020\/10\/14\/white-house-physician-guarding-presidents-privacy\/\">Related: <\/a><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"read-more-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2020\/10\/14\/white-house-physician-guarding-presidents-privacy\/\" data-post-id=\"593722\">Physician or publicist? What\u2019s a doctor to do when the president wants to be Superman?<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Campaigning in a safe and responsible fashion is possible: Former Vice President Joe Biden has held small-scale events with masking and social distancing requirements strictly enforced, and is leaning heavily on virtual events. He was ridiculed by the president for his mask-wearing and modest event attendance (sometimes in purposefully near-empty rooms) as a source of weakness. As a health care professional, however, I see this commitment to safety as a display of compassion and strength.<\/p>\n<p>While it\u2019s too early to tell if there will be a surge in cases in Newport News, I worry that some of my patients might suffer collateral damage from attending a reckless campaign event. When the president promotes maskless mass gatherings during a pandemic, I worry that some of my patients might emulate this behavior, putting their lives \u2014 and the lives of those around them \u2014 at risk. How do I explain the terrible irony to my Covid-19 patients that we allow the president to put on gatherings of thousands of people in our communities, yet they must die alone without the comfort of their own families?<\/p>\n<p><em>Zach Nayer is transitional-year resident at Riverside Regional Medical Center in Newport News, Va., and an incoming ophthalmology resident at Columbia University in New York. Usnish Majumdar, a fourth-year medical student at the Icahn School of Medicine and product manager for the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City, collaborated on the analyses<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2020\/10\/16\/trump-campaign-rallies-leave-a-trail-of-community-outbreaks\/\"><i>Stat News<\/i><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Zach Nayer,\u00a0October 16, 2020 In mid-May I sat in the backyard of my family\u2019s home garbed in graduation regalia and, via Zoom, joined my medical school classmates to read these words of the Hippocratic oath: \u201cthat into whatsoever house I shall enter, it shall be for the good of the sick.\u201d With Air Force One [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1001004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10981"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1001004"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10981"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10981\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10982,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10981\/revisions\/10982"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}