{"id":11672,"date":"2021-02-17T08:39:11","date_gmt":"2021-02-17T16:39:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=11672"},"modified":"2021-02-17T08:43:15","modified_gmt":"2021-02-17T16:43:15","slug":"a-dismal-spring-awaits-unless-we-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-the-new-york-times-credit-daniel-dreifuss-for-the-new-york-times-the-covid-19-omens-are-not-good-yes-over-the-past-two-weeks-endi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=11672","title":{"rendered":"“A Dismal Spring Awaits Unless We Slow the Spread of Covid-19”, The New York Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Ezekiel J. Emanuel,\u00a0<\/span>Rick Bright<\/span> and C\u00e9line Gounder,\u00a0<\/span>Opinion, February 17, 2021<\/p>\n

The authors were members of President Biden\u2019s advisory board on Covid-19, which counseled him during the presidential transition period on how to respond to the pandemic.<\/em><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\"\"<\/picture><\/div>
Credit…<\/span>Daniel Dreifuss for The New York Times<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n
\n
\n
\n

The Covid-19 omens are not good.<\/p>\n

Yes, over the past two weeks<\/a> ending Monday, Covid-19 cases were down by 41 percent and deaths by 22 percent. Yes, people are wearing masks. In a recent national survey<\/a>, 80 percent of the respondents said they \u201cvery closely\u201d followed public health recommendations to don a mask outside the home. And yes, since the fall, fewer Americans are attending<\/a> in-person gatherings with family and friends.<\/p>\n

This is all good. Americans confronted the realities of a dark winter and stepped up. But this feel-good moment is obscuring what could be a dismal spring and the potential of further lockdowns unless we can continue to slow the spread of this virus.<\/p>\n

Some signs point in the wrong direction. We probably just had millions of Super Bowl parties, ideal spaces for increasing spread. More worrisome, states are celebrating prematurely, rolling back their mask mandates, opening up indoor dining and permitting large gatherings, such as religious services and funerals \u2014 all well-established mechanisms for superspreading events.<\/p>\n

Compounding these threats, new virus variants, especially B.1.1.7<\/a>, are spreading across states. Their increased transmissibility could lead to tens of thousands of additional Covid-19 cases and, inevitably and tragically, a surge in hospitalizations and deaths, not to mention longer economic pain.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

The three of us were part of a 16-member advisory board<\/a> that counseled Joe Biden on Covid-19 during the presidential transition. Five other members<\/a> of that board have contributed to this article. We urge President Biden to specify clear thresholds for government action and announce them to the public. States will then understand the rules, and Americans will know when to expect public health interventions, right up to full lockdowns. The public needs to know the number of Covid-19 cases per 100,000, the rate of increase and hospital and intensive care unit bed capacity. When these are going in the wrong direction, they serve as warning signs.<\/p>\n

Even so, we have the ability to avoid lockdowns in March or April. Here\u2019s how.<\/p>\n