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In the Trenches of Ukraine\u2019s Forever War<\/em>, The New York Times Magazine, Jan. 23, 2020<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The End Of Civilization As We Knew It, Part Twenty<\/strong><\/p>\n We return here for the first time since 2020 to our series,\u00a0The End Of Civilization As We Knew It<\/em>.<\/a><\/p>\n We have noted more than once that 2021 seemed an extension of 2020. It almost seemed as if time stopped in 2020, as if the pandemic and other historic events froze it.<\/p>\n Of course events didn’t, and haven’t stopped unfolding. And we’ve reached a point where resuming our series seems called for.<\/p>\n We now officially welcome you to 2022.<\/p>\n However, “welcome” may not be seen as the appropriate word.<\/p>\n The Covid Pandemic continues to rage on its two-year anniversary. The highest infection rate in the US ever, with hospitals overwhelmed and deaths above 2,000 a day. And a weary sense of this being normalized, while a concerningly high percentage continue to resist the cure–vaccination–while the cure for the big lies remains even more elusive. Much of the world struggles on without vaccines available to most yet. Perhaps the most recent variant will be the last. But as has been said, this virus is wily and pernicious. It has changed civilization in lasting ways to be sure, which we will continue to examine in greater depth.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, other of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse may be in process of taking the driver’s seat.<\/p>\n Today is the one-year anniversary of the inauguration of President Joe Biden and Vice-President Kamala Harris.<\/p>\n We just passed the one-year anniversary of the January 6 attack on the US Capital and attempt to stop the electoral process, which could have ended democracy in America.<\/p>\n An unthinkable thing, accompanied by many unthinkable things.<\/p>\n At first, there appeared to be bipartisan agreement that this act was as horrific as it was.<\/p>\n For a while, 2021 seemed to be a beginning of a return to normal, even while the political and social forces that led to January 6 polarized further in some respects.<\/p>\n There was important support continued and expanded through government programs spearheaded by the new administration.<\/p>\n Then a series of crises, foreign and domestic, started to hit the wall, both colliding with and causal to each other.<\/p>\n Obviously, in the bigger picture, the global competition between the US and China has increasingly heated-up, which is economic and military–and ideological, assuming democracy in the US and elsewhere survives and thrives.<\/p>\n But the clear and present danger at the moment to democracy and the clear and present threat of war, including going global with the ultimate threat of weapons of mass destruction–is coming from Russia.<\/p>\n A little perspective.<\/p>\n Thirty years ago, the day after Christmas, the Soviet Union came to an end.<\/p>\n Anyone in their forties or older today will remember the impact as reality shattering. The US-Soviet bipolar superpower world was an assumed unending fact. The world was almost destroyed by nuclear war and the arms race more than once, but arms control also advanced. Back and forth. And proxy wars on the one hand, with cooperation in stabilizing the globe on the other.<\/p>\n The end of the Soviet Union was so stunning that it was described as the end of history by one commentator and then taken up as a mantra.<\/p>\n The Cold War was over. Democracy began, for a moment, to flourish globally. None more important than South Africa. And no more important an architect there than Archbishop Desmond Tutu, who died the day after Christmas three weeks ago. As we’ve written before, we had the privilege to be with, worship with and interview this extraordinary man at the height of the anti-apartheid struggle, just before it succeeded. He was subsequently increasingly highly critical of the lack of action, especially on economic social justice and equality policy from governments since, which is the rock bed reason for the chaos and increasing threats to democracy everywhere.<\/p>\n Thirty years later.<\/p>\n Russia is attempting to restore the power and influence of the Soviet Union for all practical purposes. The US, European NATO allies, including Eastern European nations liberated from Soviet control thirty years ago, won’t abide this in the end.<\/p>\n However, they have already abided the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea (anyone remember that–the first time since World War Two such a thing had happened, way back in 2014?). Always terrible precursors.<\/p>\n What preceded that? In 2013 the correctly intentioned Obama red line in Syria to stop Assad from using chemical weapons against his own people and shattering the international hard stop on the use of such weapons, turned green for the Russians, providing the opportunity to look good for a second in negotiating a deal to remove the chemical weapons (which never fully happened) and take advantage of a situation they never likely dreamed possible–to insert themselves fully as Assad’s savior and partner in crimes against humanity (established as legal fact in a precedent-setting trial in Germany last week) in slaughtering the people of Syria (which many political, military, intelligence and human rights leaders and experts across the spectrum argued that a number of likely effective and relatively low cost actions\u00a0could have stopped or at least mitigated before this if carried out timely with strategic adroitness). This in turn helped to bring ISIS within an inch of sweeping across the Middle East, forced the US back to Iraq and belatedly to Syria under more constrained and even more complicated circumstances, worsened the refugee crisis and destabilized Europe, with Brexit echoing in the US as the same old divide and conquer strategy by race, religion, etc., among the increasing majority of the disenfranchised in the new age of inequality, enabled by policies of both political parties.<\/p>\n Then the Russians dumped a campaign of internet lies into this toxic stew to affect the 2016 US presidential election and may\u00a0have succeeded in being one of the factors in electing Donald Trump and defeating Hillary Clinton.<\/p>\n The geopolitical context noted above was further exascerbated by, among other things, Trump’s denial of Russian interference in the US presidential election and abandonment of the Kurds in Syria who had sacrificed thousands of lives in place of US lives to fight ISIS, by refusing to leave only hundreds of US troops and security gaurantees in place–which kept Russia and Assad from entering Kurd conrolled areas in Syria (and kept other actors such as Turkey in place in a complex context) to help complete their slaughter and control. The result allowed Turkey to invade the part of Syria the Kurds controlled (out of their fear the autonomous area established by the Kurds, which supported a democratic socially progressive system renowned for gender equality, would impact the nationalist hopes of Kurds in Turkey) and drove the Kurds one hundred and eighty degrees from alliance with the US into alliance with Russia and Assad as a survival reaction, and allowed ISIS to begin to reconstitute. The story here, as elsewhere, is long, convoluted and tortured, and at this point has resulted in US troops back in alliance with the Kurds in a smaller area in Syria to again fight ISIS.<\/p>\n The 2020 presidential election was won by Biden for many reasons–the pandemic and the longing for sanity among the majority being key. The pandemic was number one. But Trump was also the only president in history at that point to be impeached and have a member of his own party vote for conviction–Senator Mitt Romney, the last Republican nominee for president (several other Republicans joined for a second impeachment of Trump after January 6–the only time either has happened in US history). Racial equality was important, but cut many ways, before, then and since. Economic inequality was and is at the core of all power and played a role but remained unfocussed. And wildfires and other climate catastrophes brought climate change more into focus than ever, but it remains out of view for anyone not guaranteed food, housing, health care and a decent life–and most people are still focused on this in the new age of inequality. These and other related issues have been covered by us and will be covered more so in future.<\/p>\n 2022 begins with Russian troops surrounding Ukraine (including increasingly from Belarus which Russia has helped in thwarting democracy and maintaining authoritarianism). Russian invasion there is the talk of the day. War there has been the reality for years. Trump impeachment number one was wrapped up in an attempt to use this crisis to hurt Biden in the 2020 election. Are we too far away now to remember?<\/p>\n President Biden’s seemingly mixed message about Russia and Ukraine in his press conference today (clarified and strengthened later) is probably best understood as an indicator of the complexity and the stakes involved.<\/p>\n A quick detour to the situation in Afghanistan, since everything is interrelated. As a reminder, evidence showed and was widely reported (even if subsequently mitigated as uncertain in the challenging terrain of intelligence gathering in Afghanistan) that when the US military was still engaging the Taliban (although direct US military engagement had been rare for years) during the Trump years (until he made a deal with the Taliban to just leave without any real conditions) Russia effectively put bounties on the heads of American soldiers.<\/p>\n The toll of the moment and manner of the US withdrawing even its very small but partially stabilizing force in Afghanistan on the eve of the 20th anniversary of 9\/11 continues to mount and cannot be fully forecast. There are many impacts and implications on many levels which we will return to. No one in the world has officially recognized the extremist Taliban regime as a legitimate government as we write. An entire nation is on the verge of starvation, quite literally. Many are terrorized and killed, with girls and women topping the list. US competence and credibility have taken an enormous hit.<\/p>\n But the stakes are higher with Russia and Ukraine and while the response of the US and other European nations may be flexible on the margins, it will not be on the central issues.<\/p>\n Some of the Eastern European nations liberated at the end of the Cold War themselves have morphed from democratic lights to virtual autocracies. But when it comes to Russia–nationalism and survival instincts borne of oppression defeated only a few short years ago run strong.<\/p>\n Russia is not just threatening to invade Ukraine. It’s de facto dictator, Vladimir Putin, is demanding a return to dominating Eastern Europe and the virtual withdrawal of NATO.<\/p>\n As if December 26, 1991, never happened.<\/p>\n And that’s never going to happen without war, even world war three, even nuclear destruction.<\/p>\n Because the US and NATO will never allow it.<\/p>\n Although never is a long time depending upon the cost. While NATO is increasingly alligned, there are some differences in interests.<\/p>\n And how far will Russia push? No one knows. Putin’s record of brutality beginning in Chechnya, then Geogia, then Syria, then Ukraine has been consistent and relatively unpunished. Although the US and NATO can make the cost far worse for Russia in economic terms alone. But when events like this start, predicting how it will unfold is a fool’s errand.<\/p>\n The primary black hole in the situation is perhaps the fact that Ukraine is not a member of NATO (it is highly unlikely that Russia would invade if they were, as this would trigger war with the US and NATO, although given Russian aims and NATO nations bordering Russia and Ukraine, the great risk is that through the “fog of war” this may still happen) and neither the US nor any NATO members have defense treaties with Ukraine, therefore direct military involvement in defending against any invasion is off the table. Helping Ukraine with arms and sanctions against Russia would certianly occur, but to what degree and to what effect is unknown, along with all the other upredictables in what will become a uniquely volatile global conflict no matter how it is waged.<\/p>\n For those who may need a reminder from the days of fearing nuclear destruction just before the Cold War ended, either the US or Russia has the capacity to destroy all life on earth many times over.<\/p>\n In minutes.<\/p>\n They have over 90 percent of all nuclear weapons in the world, divided roughly equally.<\/p>\n As the old saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.<\/p>\n Not always true fortunately, and the end-story has not been written. But we all do the writing, and we all need to pay very, very serious attention.<\/p>\n We are posting here two New York Times pieces as bookends on the current situation. The critical importance of the information in the first can’t be overstated. The multi-dimensional brilliance and humanity of the second make a necessary read for understanding a historical situation that could not be more important to understand.<\/p>\n The first is the front-page article from last Sunday’s edition which covers the effort by Russia to in-effect restore the Soviet Empire.<\/p>\n The second is the cover story from this Sunday’s Magazine on the eight years of war in Ukraine to this moment as the backdrop to the massing of over 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukraine border as we write.<\/p>\n Here they are:<\/p>\n “Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion”<\/a><\/p>\n By <\/span>Anton Troianovski<\/a><\/span> and David E. Sanger<\/a>,\u00a0Jan. 16, 2022, The New York Times<\/span><\/p>\n If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.<\/em><\/p>\n VIENNA \u2014 No one expected much progress from this past week\u2019s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House\u2019s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.<\/p>\n But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine\u2019s border.<\/p>\n Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia\u2019s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia\u2019s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.<\/p>\n There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places \u2014 perhaps not far from the United States coastline \u2014 that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.<\/p>\n \u201cA hypothetical Russian invasion of Ukraine would not undermine the security of the United States,\u201d said Dmitry Suslov, an analyst in Moscow who gave a closed-door presentation on the standoff to Russian lawmakers last month. \u201cThe overall logic of Russian actions is that it is the U.S. and NATO that must pay a high price.\u201d<\/p>\n And as Ukrainians were reminded anew on Friday, as the websites of the country\u2019s ministries were defaced in a somewhat amateurish attack, Russia\u2019s army of hackers can wreak havoc in Ukraine, but also in power grids from Munich to Michigan.<\/p>\n It could all be bluster, part of a Kremlin campaign of intimidation, and a way of reminding President Biden that while he wants to focus American attention on competing and dealing with China, Mr. Putin is still capable of causing enormous disruption.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The Russian leader telegraphed that approach himself by warning repeatedly in the past year that if the West crossed the ever-shifting \u201cred line\u201d that, in Mr. Putin\u2019s mind, threatens Russia\u2019s security, he would order an unexpected response.<\/p>\n \u201cRussia\u2019s response will be asymmetrical, fast and tough,\u201d Mr. Putin said last April, referring to the kinds of unconventional military action that Russia could take if adversaries threatened \u201cour fundamental security interests.\u201d<\/p>\n The current crisis was touched off by the Kremlin\u2019s release of a series of demands that, if the U.S. and its allies agreed, would effectively restore Russia\u2019s sphere of influence close to Soviet-era lines, before NATO expanded into Eastern Europe. It has also demanded that all U.S. nuclear weapons be withdrawn from Europe, saying it felt threatened by their presence \u2014 though the types and locations of those weapons haven\u2019t changed in years. And it wants a stop to all Western troop rotations through former Warsaw Pact states that have since joined NATO.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Russian forces now surround Ukraine on three sides, and Western officials fear a military operation could start as soon as this month.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n It has reinforced those demands, which the U.S. calls \u201cnon-starters,\u201d with a troop buildup near Ukraine and repeated warnings it was prepared to use unspecified \u201cmilitary-technical means\u201d to defend what it considers its legitimate security interests.<\/p>\n In response, the Biden administration has issued warnings of financial and technological sanctions<\/a> if the Kremlin should follow through with its threats, particularly in regard to Ukraine. American officials say that for all the talk about moving nuclear weapons or using asymmetrical attacks, so far the U.S. has seen little evidence.<\/p>\n At a White House briefing on Thursday, Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden\u2019s national security adviser, declined to be drawn into the question of what kind of Russian action would trigger a U.S. response \u2014 whether, for example, the U.S. would respond to a cyberattack the way it would an incursion into Ukrainian territory.<\/p>\n \u201cThe United States and our allies are prepared for any contingency, any eventuality,\u2019\u2019 he said. \u201cWe\u2019re prepared to keep moving forward down the diplomatic path in good faith, and we\u2019re prepared to respond to fresh acts. And beyond that, all we can do is get ready. And we are ready.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Of course, the most obvious scenario given the scale of troop movements on the ground is a Russian invasion of Ukraine \u2014 maybe not to take over the entire country but to send troops into the breakaway regions around the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, or to roll all the way to the Dnieper River.<\/a> At the Pentagon, \u201cfive or six different options\u201d for the extent of a Russian invasion are being examined, one senior official reported.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Researchers tracking social-media footage have spotted<\/a> numerous signs of additional Russian military equipment being shipped westward by train from Siberia. In Russia, state television has been filled with commentators\u2019 warnings that Ukraine could soon attack Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine \u2014 fitting with Washington\u2019s allegation on Friday that Russian operatives, with specialties in explosives and urban warfare, have infiltrated Ukraine<\/a> and might be planning to stage a provocation to justify an invasion. Russia denied the allegation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Yevgeny Buzhinsky, a retired lieutenant general and a regular Russian television commentator, predicted a looming \u201climited\u201d war provoked by Ukraine that Russia would win in short order through devastating airstrikes.<\/p>\n \u201cThere will be no columns of tanks,\u201d General Buzhinsky said in a phone interview. \u201cThey will just destroy all the Ukrainian infrastructure from the air, just like you do it.\u201d<\/p>\n In Geneva, Russian diplomats insisted there were no plans to invade Ukraine. But there were hints of other steps. In one little-noticed remark, a senior Russian diplomat said Moscow was prepared to place unspecified weapons systems in unspecified places. That merged with American intelligence assessments that Russia could be considering new nuclear deployments, perhaps tactical nuclear weapons or a powerful emerging arsenal of hypersonic missiles.<\/p>\n In November, Mr. Putin himself suggested Russia could deploy submarine-based hypersonic missiles within close striking distance of Washington. He has said repeatedly that the prospect of Western military expansion in Ukraine poses an unacceptable risk because it could be used to launch a nuclear strike against Moscow with just a few minutes\u2019 warning. Russia, he made clear, could do the same.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom the beginning of the year we will have in our arsenal a new sea-based missile, a hypersonic one,\u201d Mr. Putin said, referring to a weapon that travels at more than five times the speed of sound and could likely evade existing missile defenses.<\/p>\n In an apparent reference to the American capital, he added: \u201cThe flight time to reach those who give the orders will also be five minutes.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Putin said he would deploy such missiles only in response to Western moves, and President Biden told Mr. Putin in their last conversation that the United States has no plans to place offensive strike systems in Ukraine.<\/p>\n Russian officials hinted again in recent days about new missile deployments, and American officials repeated that they have seen no moves in that direction. But any effort to place weapons close to American cities would create conditions similar to the 1962 crisis that was the closest the world ever came to a nuclear exchange.<\/p>\n Asked about the nature of what Mr. Putin has termed a possible \u201cmilitary-technical\u201d response, Sergei A. Ryabkov, a deputy foreign minister, said in Geneva on Monday: \u201cRight now there is no reason to talk about what systems will be deployed, in what quantity, and where exactly.\u201d<\/p>\n And when a Russian reporter asked Mr. Ryabkov in an interview broadcast on Thursday whether Russia was considering deploying military infrastructure in Venezuela or Cuba, he responded: \u201cI don\u2019t want to confirm anything or rule anything out.\u201d<\/p>\n Moving missiles, however, is obvious to the world. And that is why, if the conflict escalates further, American officials believe that Mr. Putin could be drawn to cyberattacks \u2014 easy to deny, superbly tailored for disruption and amenable to being ramped up or down, depending on the political temperature.<\/p>\n Mr. Putin doesn\u2019t need to do much to insert computer code, or malware, into American infrastructure; the Department of Homeland Security has long warned that the Russians have already placed malware inside many American power grids.<\/p>\n The Biden administration has sought to shore up U.S. systems and root out malware. The nation\u2019s biggest utilities run an elaborate war game every two years, simulating such an attack.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n But much of corporate America remains far less protected.<\/p>\n The fear is that if sanctions were imposed on Moscow, Mr. Putin\u2019s response could be to accelerate the kind of Russian based ransomware attacks that hit Colonial Pipeline, a major beef producer, and cities and towns across the country last year.<\/p>\n The F.S.B., Russia\u2019s powerful security service, on Friday announced the arrest of hackers tied to the REvil ransomware group \u2014 a gang connected to some of the most damaging attacks against American targets, including Colonial Pipeline. The move was welcomed by the White House, but it was also a signal that Moscow could flip its cyberwarriors on or off at will.<\/p>\n No one knows Putin\u2019s next move<\/a>, of course \u2014 not even his diplomats \u2014 and he likes it that way.<\/p>\n \u201cThere could be all sorts of possible responses,\u201d Mr. Putin said when asked last month about the \u201cmilitary-technical\u201d response he warned about.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Russian leadership is rather inventive,\u201d said Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a research organization close to the Russian government. \u201cIt\u2019s not necessarily only about Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n Analysts in Moscow believe that beyond a more threatening Russian military posture, the United States would be particularly sensitive to closer military cooperation between Russia and China. Mr. Putin will travel to Beijing on Feb. 4 to attend the opening ceremonies of the Winter Olympics and hold a summit meeting with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, Russia said on Friday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The Kremlin has noted that Mr. Biden sees China, not Russia, as America\u2019s most complex, long-term challenger \u2014 an economic, military and technological competitor that plays in a different league from Russia. Yet forcing the United States to increase its investment in a confrontation with Russia, analysts say, would undermine Mr. Biden\u2019s greater strategic goal.<\/p>\n \u201cThe United States, objectively, does not want to increase its military presence in Europe,\u201d said Mr. Suslov, the analyst. \u201cThis would be done at the cost of containing China.\u201d<\/p>\n Anton Troianovski reported from Vienna, and David E. Sanger from Washington.<\/em><\/p>\n . . .<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0“In the Trenches of Ukraine\u2019s Forever War”<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n![\"Russian](\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2022\/01\/15\/world\/15russia-options1\/15russia-options1-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale&width=600\")
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<\/div>\n\nHow Russia\u2019s Military Is Positioned to Threaten Ukraine<\/h2>\n
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