{"id":13177,"date":"2022-03-01T03:35:54","date_gmt":"2022-03-01T11:35:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=13177"},"modified":"2022-03-01T03:36:50","modified_gmt":"2022-03-01T11:36:50","slug":"ukraine-conflict-what-are-the-nuclear-risks-bbc-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=13177","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Ukraine conflict: What are the nuclear risks?&#8221;, BBC News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By Gordon Corera,<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Security correspondent, 1 March 2022<\/p>\n<p><em>On Sunday, President Putin ordered his military to move Russia&#8217;s &#8220;deterrent forces&#8221; &#8211; which include nuclear weapons &#8211; <a class=\"ssrcss-9nsdc6-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-europe-60547473\">to a &#8220;special mode of combat duty&#8221;<\/a>. But what exactly does that mean?<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Related Topics<\/p>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-xa24e7-TagShareWrapper e1nh2i2l0\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-1ynay8h-StyledInformationPanel e15ad6a66\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-1ydmugk-StyledTagContainer ed0g1kj1\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-i7uuy0-Cluster e1ihwmse1\">\n<ul class=\"ssrcss-d7aixc-ClusterItems e1ihwmse0\">\n<li><a class=\"ssrcss-1yno9a1-StyledLink ed0g1kj0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/topics\/c1vw6q14rzqt\">Russia-Ukraine war<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-vk3nhx-ComponentWrapper e1xue1i810\" data-component=\"image-block\">\n<figure class=\"ssrcss-wpgbih-StyledFigure e34k3c23\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-ab5fd8-StyledFigureContainer e34k3c21\"><span class=\"ssrcss-1hq4gmv-Placeholder e16icw910\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ssrcss-1drmwog-Image ee0ct7c0\" src=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/976\/cpsprodpb\/F401\/production\/_123456426_gettyimages-1001546976.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/240\/cpsprodpb\/F401\/production\/_123456426_gettyimages-1001546976.jpg 240w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/320\/cpsprodpb\/F401\/production\/_123456426_gettyimages-1001546976.jpg 320w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/480\/cpsprodpb\/F401\/production\/_123456426_gettyimages-1001546976.jpg 480w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/624\/cpsprodpb\/F401\/production\/_123456426_gettyimages-1001546976.jpg 624w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/800\/cpsprodpb\/F401\/production\/_123456426_gettyimages-1001546976.jpg 800w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/976\/cpsprodpb\/F401\/production\/_123456426_gettyimages-1001546976.jpg 976w\" alt=\"Russia's Poseidon nuclear-armed underwater vehicle\" width=\"976\" height=\"549\" \/><span class=\"ssrcss-99q1ky-StyledFigureCopyright e34k3c20\"><span class=\"ssrcss-1f39n02-VisuallyHidden e1y6uwnp0\">IMAGE SOURCE, <\/span>GETTY IMAGES<\/span><\/span><\/div><figcaption class=\"ssrcss-5ccyy0-StyledFigureCaption e34k3c22\"><span class=\"ssrcss-1f39n02-VisuallyHidden e1y6uwnp0\">Image caption,\u00a0<\/span>Russia&#8217;s Poseidon nuclear-armed underwater vehicle &#8211; video grab by Tass, Russia&#8217;s state-owned news agency<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">It is not entirely clear, Western analysts say. UK officials say that the language Putin used did not quite fit with their understanding of the alert levels for Russian nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Some think Putin was ordering a move from the lowest alert level, &#8220;constant&#8221;, to the next level up, &#8220;elevated&#8221;, (with &#8220;military danger&#8221; and &#8220;full&#8221; still above) but that was not certain. Each move increases readiness for weapons to be used.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Many though have interpreted the move primarily as a form of public signalling, rather than indicating a real intent to use such weapons, which Putin knows will bring nuclear retaliation by the West. UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has indicated that <a class=\"ssrcss-9nsdc6-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-60553356\">he believes the announcement was primarily &#8220;rhetoric&#8221;<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">That does not mean there are no risks and the situation is likely to be watched closely.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-dm4ypg-ComponentWrapper-HeadlineComponentWrapper e1xue1i89\" data-component=\"subheadline-block\">\n<h2 id=\"Was-it-a-new-warning\" class=\"ssrcss-1gsdda0-StyledHeading e1fj1fc10\" tabindex=\"-1\">Was it a new warning?<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Last week, Putin had warned in more coded language that if other countries interfered with Russia&#8217;s plans they would face consequences the &#8220;like of which they have never seen&#8221;. That was widely interpreted as a warning for Nato not to become directly militarily involved in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Nato has always been clear it will not do that, knowing it could trigger direct conflict with Russia which could escalate into nuclear war. Sunday&#8217;s warning was more direct and public.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-dm4ypg-ComponentWrapper-HeadlineComponentWrapper e1xue1i89\" data-component=\"subheadline-block\">\n<h2 id=\"Why-the-new-warning\" class=\"ssrcss-1gsdda0-StyledHeading e1fj1fc10\" tabindex=\"-1\">Why the new warning?<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Putin said the move was in response to &#8220;aggressive statements&#8221;. On Monday, the Kremlin said this referred to statements by Western officials, including UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, about possible clashes and confrontations with Nato. Western officials also believe the new warning has come because Putin may have miscalculated over Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">He may have underestimated how much resistance he would face on the battlefield in Ukraine. And he underestimated how far the West would unite in a tough response with sanctions. That has left him reaching for new options and tougher talk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">&#8220;This is a sign of anger, frustration and disappointment,&#8221; one recently retired British general told me.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">The US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield suggested this language is part of Putin&#8217;s effort to justify the war in Ukraine by claiming it is not an aggressor but the one under threat and seeking to defend itself.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Seen in this way, the nuclear alert is a way of emphasising this message to his own people. Another way of seeing it is that Putin is worried about Western plans to provide military assistance to the Ukrainians and wants to warn them about not doing too much.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Another is that he is worried sanctions, which he referenced in his announcement, are designed to cause unrest and overthrow his government. But the overall message seems to be a warning to Nato that if it becomes directly involved events could escalate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>What are the risks?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Even if Putin&#8217;s threat is meant as a warning rather than signalling any current desire to use the weapons, there is always the risk of miscalculation if one side misinterprets the other or events get out of hand.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">A concern is that Putin has become isolated and out of touch, with few of his advisers willing to tell him the truth. Some fear his judgement is becoming erratic. Some hope though that if he did go too far, others further down the chain of command might not be willing to carry out orders. The risks of any nuclear conflict may have gone up slightly but they still remain low.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>How is the West responding?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">So far, Western governments have been careful not to further escalate either rhetoric or the action. The US military has its own defence readiness alert status known as Defcon, and today White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said there was &#8220;no reason to change&#8221; its nuclear alert levels at the moment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">The UK has nuclear armed submarines at sea and is also unlikely to say anything publicly. The aim appears to be to treat the Russian statement as bluster and not increase tensions by appearing to take it too seriously or take any actions which might spark a Russian response.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">This is not currently a nuclear crisis and it must not become one, Western security officials say.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Will the West know what Russia is doing?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC that the UK had not seen any change yet in the actual posture of Russia&#8217;s nuclear weapons. That will be watched closely, intelligence sources confirm.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">During the Cold War, a huge intelligence machine was created in the West to watch Moscow&#8217;s nuclear arsenal. Satellites, intercepted communications and other sources were analysed to look for any signs of changes in behaviour &#8211; like preparing weapons or crews for bombers &#8211; that would offer warning.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\">Much of that remains in place and the West will be now watching Russian activity closely to understand if there is going to be any significant change in behaviour. There has been no sign, so far.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ssrcss-1q0x1qg-Paragraph eq5iqo00\"><span class=\"ssrcss-var3ia-Placeholder e16icw910\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ssrcss-1drmwog-Image ee0ct7c0\" src=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/624\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/240\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 240w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/320\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 320w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/480\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 480w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/624\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 624w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/800\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 800w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/976\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 976w\" alt=\"line\" width=\"624\" height=\"2\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-dm4ypg-ComponentWrapper-HeadlineComponentWrapper e1xue1i89\" data-component=\"subheadline-block\">\n<h2 id=\"Russia-attacks-Ukraine-More-coverage-\" class=\"ssrcss-1gsdda0-StyledHeading e1fj1fc10\" tabindex=\"-1\">Russia attacks Ukraine: More coverage<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i86\" data-component=\"unordered-list-block\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-17j9f6r-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi1\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-1pzprxn-BulletListContainer e5tfeyi0\">\n<ul>\n<li>LIVE: <a class=\"ssrcss-9nsdc6-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/live\/world-europe-60542877\">Latest updates from on the ground<\/a><\/li>\n<li>THE BASICS: <a class=\"ssrcss-9nsdc6-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-europe-56720589\">Why is Putin invading Ukraine?<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ZELENSKY: <a class=\"ssrcss-9nsdc6-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-europe-59667938\">Comedian president rises to the moment<\/a><\/li>\n<li>MAPS: <a class=\"ssrcss-9nsdc6-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-europe-60506682\">Tracking day four of Russia&#8217;s invasion<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ssrcss-18mjolk-ComponentWrapper e1xue1i810\" data-component=\"image-block\">\n<figure class=\"ssrcss-wpgbih-StyledFigure e34k3c23\">\n<div class=\"ssrcss-ab5fd8-StyledFigureContainer e34k3c21\"><span class=\"ssrcss-var3ia-Placeholder e16icw910\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"ssrcss-1drmwog-Image ee0ct7c0\" src=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/624\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/240\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 240w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/320\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 320w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/480\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 480w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/624\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 624w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/800\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 800w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/976\/cpsprodpb\/1FCD\/production\/_105914180_line976-nc.png 976w\" alt=\"line\" width=\"624\" height=\"2\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Gordon Corera,\u00a0Security correspondent, 1 March 2022 On Sunday, President Putin ordered his military to move Russia&#8217;s &#8220;deterrent forces&#8221; &#8211; which include nuclear weapons &#8211; to a &#8220;special mode of combat duty&#8221;. But what exactly does that mean? Related Topics Russia-Ukraine war IMAGE SOURCE, GETTY IMAGESImage caption,\u00a0Russia&#8217;s Poseidon nuclear-armed underwater vehicle &#8211; video grab by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1001004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13177"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1001004"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13177"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13179,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13177\/revisions\/13179"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}