{"id":15779,"date":"2024-11-08T20:55:50","date_gmt":"2024-11-09T04:55:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=15779"},"modified":"2024-11-15T21:07:16","modified_gmt":"2024-11-16T05:07:16","slug":"collapse-in-democratic-turnout-fueled-trumps-victory-the-wall-street-journal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=15779","title":{"rendered":"“Collapse in Democratic Turnout Fueled Trump\u2019s Victory”, The Wall Street Journal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0John West<\/a> and\u00a0Kara Dapena<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nov. 8, 2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Party turnout dropped across the board, especially in non-battleground states, paving the way<\/a> for Trump\u2019s resurgence<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vice President\u00a0Kamala Harris<\/a>\u00a0tried to build it, but they didn\u2019t come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across every core Democratic bloc, voters didn\u2019t turn out. And the electorate that did turn out shifted toward President-elect\u00a0Donald Trump, a Wall Street Journal analysis of preliminary vote data shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turnout<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two-party vote total, <\/p>\n\n\n\n

change from 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vote share<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrat\u2019s share of two-party <\/p>\n\n\n\n

vote, change from 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.: -1.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.: -2.6 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COUNTIES, BY 2020 RESULT<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden won by <\/p>\n\n\n\n

10+ pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

157 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-5.9%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.6 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden won by <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<10 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

166 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-3.3<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-3.2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump won by <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<10 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

275 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-0.1<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump won by <\/p>\n\n\n\n

10+ pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1,642 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

+2.0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-1.4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026and they swung <\/p>\n\n\n\n

for Trump compared <\/p>\n\n\n\n

with 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fewer voters turned out, <\/p>\n\n\n\n

particularly in counties <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden won\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Listen to article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Length (3 minutes)Queue<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Explore Audio Center<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nationwide turnout notched down slightly compared with 2020. But among counties that President Biden won in 2020, the declines on Election Day this year were especially sharp\u2014and voters moved away from the Democrats. While Harris\u2019s organizational and advertising efforts successfully moved voters to the polls in the battleground states, the overall voter pool shifted toward Trump, compared to 2020. Across the rest of the country, Democratic turnout plummeted. The Journal\u2019s analysis includes counties where nearly 100% of the votes had been counted as of Thursday evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turnout<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two-party vote total, <\/p>\n\n\n\n

change from 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vote share<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrat\u2019s share of two-party <\/p>\n\n\n\n

vote, change from 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SWING <\/p>\n\n\n\n

STATES<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.: -1.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.: -2.6 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michigan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

+1.7%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.2 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Carolina<\/p>\n\n\n\n

+2.2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-1.0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wisconsin<\/p>\n\n\n\n

+3.8<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-0.8<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Georgia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

+5.2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-1.2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Party switching alone doesn\u2019t explain Harris\u2019s defeat. \u201cDemocrats sat out the election,\u201d said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters translated into a fractured coalition, with a swath of key groups sharply reducing their support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turnout<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two-party vote total, <\/p>\n\n\n\n

change from 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vote share<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrat\u2019s share of two-party <\/p>\n\n\n\n

vote, change from 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COUNTIES WITH <\/p>\n\n\n\n

HIGHEST SHARE OF<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.: -1.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.: -2.6 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Black residents<\/p>\n\n\n\n

524 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-3.8%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.8 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

College graduates<\/p>\n\n\n\n

402 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.6<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hispanic residents<\/p>\n\n\n\n

347 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-1.6<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-4.1<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This sagging support came despite efforts by Harris\u2019s campaign to shore up Black and Hispanic votes with targeted rallies in key battleground states<\/a> and policy proposals on issues affecting minority voters<\/a>. She also came up short in America\u2019s most well-educated communities, a now-core<\/a> part of the Democratic base. Her failure to connect with voters in the nation\u2019s big metropolitan areas left Trump\u2019s successes in rural, suburban and exurban counties in crucial swing states unmatched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her attempts at offense likewise failed. She tried to make inroads with Republicans skeptical of the scandal-plagued former president,\u00a0campaigning with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0offering to put a Republican in her cabinet<\/a>. But she did not make sufficient gains in the suburban communities where many of those skeptical voters live.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vote share<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrat\u2019s share of two-party <\/p>\n\n\n\n

vote, change from 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turnout<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two-party vote total, <\/p>\n\n\n\n

change from 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.: -1.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.: -2.6 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COUNTIES WITH HIGHEST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Median income<\/p>\n\n\n\n

394 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.2 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Share of white residents<\/p>\n\n\n\n

451 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

+0.3<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-1.2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Median age<\/p>\n\n\n\n

395 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

+2.4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Harris also lost ground in historic hotbeds of Democratic support. In Trump\u2019s 2016 run, he transformed white working-class counties into Republican strongholds. On Tuesday, he deepened his support in many of the hardest-hit manufacturing hubs across the Rust Belt, including in Democrats\u2019 once-vaunted \u201cblue wall\u201d\u2014Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.\u00a0<\/strong>Democratic vote share further declined in blue-collar counties with lower educational attainment and income levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turnout<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two-party vote total, change from 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vote share<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrat\u2019s share of two-party vote, change from 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.: -1.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S.: -2.6 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COUNTIES WITH<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lowest median income<\/p>\n\n\n\n

475 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-4.7%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-3.5 pct. pts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Highest union membership rate<\/p>\n\n\n\n

347 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.3<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lowest share of college graduates<\/p>\n\n\n\n

478 counties<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-2.6<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: As of 7:16 p.m. EST Nov. 7. Analysis includes 2,240 counties where 99% of votes are counted. College graduates is bachelor\u2019s degree or higher.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sources: American Community Survey and Cornell University Buffalo Co-Lab  (demographics); Associated Press (results)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0John West and\u00a0Kara Dapena Nov. 8, 2024 Party turnout dropped across the board, especially in non-battleground states, paving the way for Trump\u2019s resurgence Vice President\u00a0Kamala Harris\u00a0tried to build it, but they didn\u2019t come. Across every core Democratic bloc, voters didn\u2019t turn out. And the electorate that did turn out shifted toward President-elect\u00a0Donald Trump, a Wall […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1001004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15779"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1001004"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15779"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15779\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15784,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15779\/revisions\/15784"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}