{"id":17526,"date":"2026-01-01T01:17:47","date_gmt":"2026-01-01T09:17:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=17526"},"modified":"2026-01-04T01:24:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-04T09:24:11","slug":"issue-of-the-week-war-human-rights-economic-opportunity-disease-hunger-environment-population-personal-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=17526","title":{"rendered":"Issue of the Week: War, Human Rights, Economic Opportunity, Disease, Hunger, Environment, Population, Personal Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/planetearthfdn.org\/news\">Back to News<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-ender-fhvm\/00inv-partnership-trump-ender-fhvm-mobileMasterAt3x-v3.jpg\" alt=\"A man\u2019s silhouette against a blue-and-gold horizon.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The Separation<strong>:&nbsp;<\/strong>Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership<\/em>, The New York Times, 12.31.25, and <em>Dawn of the AI Drone<\/em>, The New York Times Magazine, 1.4.26<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>And there it is, midnight on New Year\u2019s Eve here in Ukraine. The start of 2026. Complete silence. No crowds, no fireworks, there\u2019s no cheering. Every other capital in the world right now is exploding with sounds, with light and here, it\u2019s silence.&nbsp;&#8230;Right now, families are listening for drones instead of fireworks. New Year\u2019s Eve is supposed to be about noise, excess and celebration and here it\u2019s about getting through the night, about seeing another morning. &#8230;So when your city lights up tonight, remember that Ukraine has to stay dark and remember that this is not normal, and this should never be accepted as normal. &#8230;It\u2019s something that was forced on Ukraine. &#8230;So wherever you are in the world right now, whether you\u2019re with your family by the fire, whether you\u2019re scrolling TikTok in bed, or whether you\u2019re at a party you wish you never went to, think of Ukraine and think of the fact that this is the only capital of any country in the world right now that looks like this. And most of all, remember who caused it.<\/em> &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8211;Caelan Robertson, Irish-born journalist and content-creator living in Ukraine since 2022, Honorary Ambassador of Ukraine Award for Digital Diplomacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We know of what Robertson spoke about above accompanying an Instragram video sent to us by our Ukrainian guide in Kyiv today from <a href=\"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=16749\">our recent time there<\/a>, where we experienced <a href=\"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=16803\">close up and personal<\/a> missiles and drones by the hundreds being inflicted purposefully in war crimes against the civilian population. And the extraordinary deprivation, hunger, disease, destruction of energy sources bringing freezing conditions to civilians, trafficking of children and countless crimes against humanity, which have been <a href=\"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=17042\">the story of 2025 in so many ways and places<\/a>. But the cummulative story in Ukraine is unique in global impact, going not just back to 2014, but to the horrific starvation of millions of Ukrainians by Stalin in the 1930&#8217;s, and many historical atrocities by imperialist Russia for centuries, with Ukraine now on the front line of democracy versus dictatorship world-wide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, we begin the new year with the same issue we began with <a href=\"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=13048\">four years ago<\/a>&#8211;the one which continues to haunt the world with the possibility of global war more than at any time since World War Two, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For all of 2022 and 2023, the U.S., along with virtually all democracies and most other nations globally, enthusiastically supported Ukraine as the bulwark of democracy, human rights and sanctity of national soveriegnty against authoritarianism and aggression against the borders of other nations&#8211;the framework of global order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine&#8217;s President Zelensky was welcomed as a hero addressing an historic joint session of the US Congress in 2022, a bipartisan congressional group in 2024 and multiple White House visits. President Biden and other NATO heads of state met with him in Ukraine. Virtually all Republicans and Democrats zealously supported him and the bravery of Ukraine, which by all odds should have been over-run by Russia in days, but held fast, took back territory and cities and was in position to win the war and expel the Russians from all their territory if properly and timely armed. President Biden, the US, and other allies, had made the survival of Ukraine possible (with Ukrainian resolve and courage as key), with substantial support. But with a policy that fell short of timely supplying enough arms and the type of arms needed to finish the job. The Russians, with Putin willing to send hundreds of thousands of Russia&#8217;s soldiers to be slaughtered if needed, were regaining the upper hand in 2025, if only to a small degree&#8211;but over a year with real consequences. This was becoming a clear threat at the end of the Biden administration and plans for stepping up aid were advancing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the political reincarnation of Donald Trump and increasing isolationist Republican sentiment under his sway, and political unwillingness by a majority who still supported Ukraine to buck Trump&#8217;s influence, flipped the script. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[Comment here posted 1.3.26: The stunning contradictions of intervention in Venezuela, odious as the leadership removed was, with the flip flop of stated support for the actual winner of the Venezuelan election and Nobel Peace Prize winner who backed him, to the US as the power that would &#8220;run&#8221; Venezuela, was consistent with the inconsistency of policies except as determined to be resource and politically advantageous at the moment. The rationale and methods leading up to and utilized to justify this action have been questionable to put it mildly and the blowback is an unknowable black hole. The same oppressive government remains in power at the moment in Venezuela. It&#8217;s as if Hitler or Stalin was removed but the entire Nazi or Communist apparatus was left in place. Perhaps the pardon for the imprisoned former narco-leader of Honduras with investigation initiated by the first Trump Justice Department will now be somehow magically undone, as it is now an even more glaring contradiction in policy.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The European members of NATO have strongly supported Ukraine and have upped that support in the past year as US support became questionable at best. But it may be too little too late when only the US has the capacity to make the difference it can. Further, the bigger elephant in the room has become clear. Putin has directly threatened other NATO and European nations and the head of NATO has made clear that it must prepare for war with Russia. In response, European nations are arming further or re-arming fast. Trump and company appear to have entered a delusionary world that can&#8217;t even remember what happened in the lead-up to World War Two. If Ukraine falls, it&#8217;s on. Except this time with nukes, and the US will be drawn in, like it or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The idea that Russia will use nukes as it has threatened in Ukraine is absurd, unless Putin sees no consequences. There will be&#8211;this will effectively bring other European nations with nukes in, one way or another. And the US. No one is going to lie down and become slaves under such a threat and others in the neighborhood have the same weapons. The greatest threat of this happening is either a mistake (which can happen anytime anyway, a terrible risk of having such weapons in place at all) or the lack of unmistakable resolve in stopping aggression. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine surely wishes it never gave up its nukes when it was the third largest nuclear armed power in the world in the mid-nineties. At the end of the Cold War after the Soviet Union dissolved (after the whole world danced on the ruins of the Berlin Wall&#8211;but the worst thing ever according to KGB agent, now dictator, Putin, trying to restore the Soviet\/Russian empire) the US, UK and Russia promised Ukraine that it would protect Ukrainian soverienty if it gave up its nukes. Russia appeared to be a new democracy in a new world, but Ukraine would never trust that, obviously rightly so. But trust the US, the only superpower on earth now? Yes. And a terrible mistake. Because the greatest democracy in the world was not to be trusted in living up to its own democratic institutions, as it now turns out. And besides, nothing is certain except what a nation has itself. If Ukraine had kept its nukes, Putin would never have dared to invade an inch of Ukrainian territory, starting with Crimea and staging a fake separatist war in Eastern Ukraine in 2014, then full-on invasion four years ago. Bill Clinton, who pressured the Ukrainians to give up their nukes (understandably at the time), now says he wishes he had never done so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the constantly rotating and contradictory excuses given by the current US regime for not continuing to supply Ukraine with adequate weapons, or arms at all, is the need to have an adequate supply to fight China. First, as if there was a rational or consistent policy related to China. And in case no one remembers, in the biggest war in history, the US fought in multiple theaters of war, and won, starting with practically a zero arms inventory, then amping up with all due speed (and the US is far from zero now, yet could and should amp up, in a redirected manner in types of arms, to properly be able to cover multiple contingencies, as The New York Times has pointed out in a current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2025\/12\/08\/opinion\/us-china-taiwan-military.html\">editorial series<\/a>.) Yes, China is ultimately the biggest threat to the US (and to what the US historically stood for in democracy versus dictatorship), but Ukraine is a critical part of this equation too. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US buckles to Russia on Ukraine, China invades Taiwan tomorrow. China is Russia&#8217;s ally in wanting to use Ukraine to take down the US (and all things liberal democracy). A top liason between the US military and Ukrainian military leadership in the first years of the war told the author of this post that China, Russia and its allies (Iran, North Korea) had already declared war on the US in Ukraine, a war meant to be the first strike of a global war for dominance, which could only be kept from becoming World War Three as most people understand the reference by Ukraine prevailing, which is to say the US doing whatever needed to create this outcome. Again, this is the most likely thing to prevent nuclear war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, speaking of weapons, just as the atom bomb was the result of needing to beat Hitler in getting it, a similar arms race is happening in a brand new weapons category: AI drone warfare. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine is the testing ground for this. It may be its salvation or undoing, depending on who wins this arms race. Ukraine, and Russia, are ahead of the US and everyone else on this. And it&#8217;s a truly game-changing and terrifying universe of weaponry. Ukraine is increasingly an AI drone war. It&#8217;s the warfare of the future in real time now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have written often of the history of the Ukrainian story and threats to the world involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday, on New Year&#8217;s Eve, The New York Times, which has covered these stories with extraordinary depth and breadth from the start, posted two long-form pieces of importance not possible to overstate. One ran yesterday, the other is an advance piece posted online that will run in Sunday&#8217;s New York Times Magazine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here they are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Separation:&nbsp;<\/strong>Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>As President Trump sought a peace deal and Vladimir V. Putin sought victory, factions in the White House and Pentagon bled the Ukrainian war effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2025\/12\/30\/world\/europe\/ukraine-war-us-russia.html\">By Adam Entous<\/a>, Dec. 30, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Adam Entous conducted more than 300 interviews over more than a year with government, military and intelligence officials in Ukraine, the United States, Britain, Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Turkey.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Donald J. Trump promised that he could bring peace to Ukraine in a single day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What followed was nearly a year of on-again, off-again negotiations, apportioning of territory, administration infighting and a war still without end. This is the story of how it unfolded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/25\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-top-alt-ptcg\/00inv-partnership-trump-top-alt-ptcg-mobileMasterAt3x-v12.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/17\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch7-vpkf\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch7-vpkf-mobileMasterAt3x-v8.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/map-900.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>THE TRAIN LEFT<\/strong>&nbsp;the U.S. Army depot in the west of Germany and made for Poland and the Ukrainian border. These were the final 800 miles of a trans-Atlantic supply chain that had sustained Ukraine across more than three long years of war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The freight on this last day in June was 155-millimeter artillery shells, 18,000 of them packed into crates, their fuses separated out to prevent detonation in transit. Their ultimate destination was the eastern front, where Vladimir V. Putin\u2019s generals were massing forces and firepower against the city of Pokrovsk. The battle was for territory and strategic advantage but also for bragging rights: Mr. Putin wanted to show the American president, Donald J. Trump, that Russia was indeed winning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Advertising their war plan, the Russians had told Mr. Trump\u2019s advisers. \u201cWe\u2019re going to slam them harder there. We have the munitions to do that.\u201d In Washington, the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, had been talking about munitions, too, testifying to a Senate appropriations subcommittee that those earmarked for Ukraine by former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. were \u201cstill flowing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Three months earlier, in fact, Mr. Hegseth had, unannounced, decided to hold back one crucial class of munitions \u2014 American-made 155s. The U.S. military\u2019s stocks were running low, his advisers had warned; withholding them would force the Europeans to step up, to take greater responsibility for the war in their backyard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Day after day, then, thousands upon thousands of 155s earmarked for Ukraine had lain waiting on pallets at the ammunitions depot. The American commander in Europe, General Christopher G. Cavoli, had fired off email after email, pleading with the Pentagon to free them. The jam had been broken only after intervention from Jack Keane, a retired Army general and Fox News contributor who was friendly with the president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But on July 2, as the train approached the Ukrainian border, a new order came in to the U.S. military\u2019s European Command: \u201cDivert everything. Immediately.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Exactly why the liberated shells had been taken captive again was never explained. In the end, they waited for just 10 days, in a rail yard near Krakow. Yet to U.S. military officers who had spent the last three and a half years fighting to shore up the Ukrainian cause, the interrupted journey of the 18,000 shells seemed to encompass the entirety of America\u2019s new, erratic and corrosive role in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThis has happened so many times that I\u2019ve lost count,\u201d a senior U.S. official said. \u201cThis is literally killing them. Death by a thousand cuts.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/25\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-155-lvqh\/00inv-partnership-trump-155-lvqh-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg\" alt=\"A man in an apron and work gloves holding an artillery shell.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>A worker handling a 155-millimeter artillery shell, a key munition provided to Ukraine, at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania last year.<\/em> <em>Charly Triballeau\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It was to hold back the Russian tide, perhaps even help win the war, that the Biden administration had provided Ukraine with a vast array of increasingly sophisticated weaponry. The Americans, their European allies and the Ukrainians had also joined in a secret partnership of intelligence, strategy, planning and technology, its workings revealed earlier this year by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2025\/03\/29\/world\/europe\/us-ukraine-military-war-wiesbaden.html\">The New York Times<\/a>. At stake, the argument went, was not just Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty but the very fate of the post-World War II international order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump has presided over the partners\u2019 separation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The headlines are well known: Mr. Trump\u2019s televised Oval Office humiliation of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in February. The August summit with Mr. Putin in Alaska. The furious flurry of diplomacy that led to the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/12\/28\/us\/politics\/trump-zelensky-peace-ukraine-putin.html\">Mar-a-Lago meeting on Sunday with Mr. Zelensky<\/a>, the latest high-stakes but inconclusive negotiation in which the fate of Ukraine has seemed to hang in the balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is still unclear when, and if, a deal will be reached. This is the chaotic and previously untold story behind the past year of head-spinning headlines:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Ukraine specialists at the Pentagon afraid to utter the word \u201cUkraine.\u201d Mr. Trump telling his chosen envoy to Russia and Ukraine, \u201cRussia is mine.\u201d The secretary of state quoting from \u201cThe Godfather\u201d in negotiations with the Russians. The Ukrainian defense minister pleading with the American defense secretary, \u201cJust be honest with me.\u201d A departing American commander\u2019s \u201cbeginning of the end\u201d memo. Mr. Zelensky\u2019s Oval Office phone call, set up by the president, with a former Miss Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This account draws on more than 300 interviews with national security officials, military and intelligence officers and diplomats in Washington, Kyiv and across Europe. Virtually all insisted on anonymity, for fear of reprisal from Mr. Trump and his administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump had scant ideological commitment. His pronouncements and determinations were often shaped by the last person he spoke to, by how much respect he felt the Ukrainian and Russian leaders had shown him, by what caught his eye on Fox News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Policy was forged in the clash of bitterly warring camps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Biden had left the Ukrainians a financial and weapons nest egg to cushion them for an uncertain future. Mr. Trump\u2019s point man for peace negotiations presented him with a plan to maintain support for Ukraine and squeeze the Russian war machine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But that strategy ran headlong into a phalanx of Ukraine skeptics led by the vice president, JD Vance, and like-minded officials he seeded at the Pentagon and elsewhere in the administration. In their view, instead of squandering America\u2019s depleted military stocks on a sinking ship, they should be reapportioned to counter the greatest global threat: China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A cold wind \u2014 what one senior military officer called \u201ca de facto anti-Ukraine policy\u201d \u2014 swept through the Pentagon. Time and again, Mr. Hegseth and his advisers undermined, sidelined or silenced front-line generals and administration officials sympathetic to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Against that backdrop, Mr. Trump granted Mr. Hegseth and other subordinates wide latitude to make decisions about the flow of aid to Ukraine. On several occasions, when those decisions brought bad press or internal backlash \u2014 as with the 18,000 shells \u2014 Ukraine-friendly commentators at Fox stepped in and persuaded the president to reverse them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even as Mr. Trump bullied Mr. Zelensky, he seemed to coddle Mr. Putin. When the Russian stiff-armed peace proposals and accelerated bombing campaigns on Ukrainian cities, Mr. Trump would lash out on Truth Social and ask his aides, \u201cDo we sanction their banks or do we sanction their energy infrastructure?\u201d For months, he did neither.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But in secret, the Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. military, with his blessing, supercharged a Ukrainian campaign of drone strikes on Russian oil facilities and tankers to hobble Mr. Putin\u2019s war machine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Day to day, Mr. Trump was inconsistent. But he was still a deal maker determined to broker a deal \u2014 and convinced that, in the calculus of leverage, the advantage lay with the stronger. Both sides fought a war within the war, to shape the president\u2019s perceptions. \u201cThey look invincible,\u201d he told aides in May after seeing footage of a military parade in Moscow. Three weeks later, after Ukraine mounted an audacious covert drone operation inside Russia, Mr. Zelensky sent a parade of aides to the White House with his own victory message: \u201cWe are not losing. We are winning.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet on the battlefield and at the negotiating table, Mr. Trump kept pushing the Ukrainians deeper and deeper into a box. What he underestimated was the Russian leader\u2019s refusal to budge from his demands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The origin point of this story was the president\u2019s belief in what he saw as his personal connection to Mr. Putin. On the campaign trail, he had promised to broker peace quickly, perhaps even before taking office. After he won the election, European and Middle Eastern leaders began calling, offering to help smooth the way for talks with the Russians during the transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump\u2019s aides knew he was eager to get started, but they were also aware of the shadow that outreach to Russia had cast over his first term. Then, several aides\u2019 undisclosed contacts with the Russians before the inauguration had become part of the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election. Mr. Trump took to bitterly calling it \u201cthe Russia, Russia, Russia hoax.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This time, his aides decided, they needed official cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cLook, we\u2019ve been getting all kinds of outreach,\u201d Mr. Trump\u2019s pick for national security adviser, Michael Waltz, told his Biden administration counterpart, Jake Sullivan. \u201cWe\u2019d like to go ahead and start testing some of these, because Trump wants to move quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And so Mr. Waltz made a request, never before reported, for a letter of permission from Mr. Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/17\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trumo-ch-1-pvct\/00inv-partnership-trumo-ch-1-pvct-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"A wrecked tank on a blackened roadside.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>A Ukrainian tank that was struck by a drone a few miles from the Kursk region of Russia.<\/em> <em>Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"part-one\">Part 1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Transition<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/austin.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MR. WALTZ<\/strong>&nbsp;had some grounds for optimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It had been a profoundly rancorous campaign, but once it was over, Mr. Biden told aides that he wanted an orderly, cooperative transfer of power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The week after the election, he hosted Mr. Trump at the Oval Office and explained why he believed it was in America\u2019s interest to continue military support for Ukraine. Mr. Trump didn\u2019t telegraph his intent. But according to two former administration officials, he ended the meeting on a strikingly gracious note, commending Mr. Biden on a \u201csuccessful presidency\u201d and promising to protect the things he cared about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before Mr. Biden dropped out of the race in July, many of his rival\u2019s most stinging attacks had been aimed at his son Hunter, over his legal troubles, struggles with addiction and business dealings in Ukraine and elsewhere. Now Mr. Trump told him, \u201cIf there\u2019s anything I can do for Hunter, please let me know.\u201d (Three weeks later, Mr. Biden would, controversially, pardon his son, sweeping away his illegal gun purchase and tax evasion convictions \u2014 and shielding him from potential presidential retribution.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Biden\u2019s top national security aides had, for the most part, cordial meetings with their successors. The exception was the defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III. Mr. Austin had been a proud architect of the Biden administration\u2019s Ukraine partnership, and he, too, hoped to argue for its survival. He let it be known that he was available to meet with Mr. Hegseth, but the Trump transition team did not reply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MR. WALTZ\u2019S REQUEST<\/strong>&nbsp;for the letter divided Mr. Biden\u2019s national security aides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a law, the Logan Act, last employed in 1853, that prohibits an unauthorized person from negotiating a dispute between the United States and a foreign government. But the West Wing debate wasn\u2019t a legal one. It turned on far murkier questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While one senior aide argued that providing the letter would underscore Mr. Biden\u2019s desire for transition good will, another saw danger \u2014 especially given the president-elect\u2019s history of deference to Mr. Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhy are we going to give them cover to start what could be a very damaging Russia conversation?\u201d Jon Finer, the deputy national security adviser, asked Mr. Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It wasn\u2019t as if the Biden administration hadn\u2019t explored talking to the Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In November 2021, amid signs of impending invasion, the president had sent William J. Burns, head of the C.I.A., to Moscow to press Mr. Putin to pull back. In secret, a close Biden adviser, Amos Hochstein, had also tried to forestall invasion through talks with the chief of Russia\u2019s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, in the twilight of his power and of the wartime partnership he had shepherded, Mr. Biden weighed the Trump team\u2019s request and saw little reason to believe that Mr. Putin would now be any more willing to negotiate peace. After all, he believed he was winning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Biden would not forbid the administration-in-waiting from engaging with the Russians. But there would be no letter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As one aide remembers it, \u201cWhat Biden said was: \u2018If I send this letter, it\u2019s like I\u2019m blessing whatever Trump does, and I have no idea what he\u2019s going to do. He could make a deal with Putin at Ukraine\u2019s expense and I don\u2019t want to be endorsing that.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FORMAL TALKS WOULD WAIT<\/strong>&nbsp;for Inauguration Day. Still, it was imperative to be prepared. And the man who very badly wanted to be at the center of those preparations was Keith Kellogg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A retired Army general and one of the president-elect\u2019s most loyal longtime aides, Mr. Kellogg had served as Vice President Mike Pence\u2019s national security adviser in the first Trump presidency. He had definite ideas about the Russians and the war in Ukraine \u2014 and a conviction that if Mr. Trump didn\u2019t manage negotiations well, it would be disastrous for America, for Europe and for his legacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Kellogg\u2019s feelings about the Russians had been forged in the depths of the Cold War. Serving in U.S. Special Forces, he had led a Green Light team, soldiers trained to parachute behind Soviet lines with tactical nuclear weapons strapped between their legs. He also harbored a suspicion that the Russians had once tried to kill him. In 2000, while on the Army staff at the Pentagon, he had just left an event at the Russian embassy when he felt a sharp pain in his right elbow. Later, at dinner with friends, his wife noticed the swelling. The next day, he was rushed to the hospital, where doctors nearly had to amputate his arm to keep a staph infection from spreading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His evolving ideas on the Ukraine war had formed the basis of a policy paper he published in April 2024. He had once been among those who believed that the Biden administration was not doing enough to support the Ukrainians. Now the battlefield balance had shifted, and Ukraine, Mr. Kellogg wrote, no longer had a path to victory. Still, he argued, America needed to arm the Ukrainians sufficiently to convince Mr. Putin that his territorial ambitions had hit a wall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Kellogg sent the paper to Mr. Trump, who sent it back with a note at the top that read, \u201cGreat job,\u201d and beneath it his distinctively squiggly signature. Mr. Kellogg framed the autographed page and hung it in his home office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the new administration took shape, Mr. Kellogg sought, unsuccessfully, to be named defense secretary or national security adviser. But in late November, he traveled to Mar-a-Lago to pitch himself for another job \u2014 special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. This time, Mr. Trump bit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-25-wmvc\/00inv-partnership-trump-25-wmvc-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"A man in a suit and a yellow tie in a blue-and-gold state room.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Keith Kellogg, special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, arrived in Kyiv last February to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Evgeniy Maloletka\/Associated Press<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Almost immediately, the appointment ignited an early flaring of the ideological combat that would run through the administration\u2019s handling of the war. To some of Mr. Vance\u2019s allies, Mr. Kellogg, 80 at the time, was a Cold War relic with a cold warrior\u2019s view of the conflict and the Russian threat. Mr. Putin, they suspected, would never work with him. What\u2019s more, in their view, the sort of support Mr. Kellogg was advocating would only prolong the fighting; America needed to de-escalate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Knives were out, and Mr. Kellogg didn\u2019t help himself with the \u201clistening tour\u201d he was planning of several European capitals. His daughter, Meaghan Mobbs, who ran a charity that operated aid programs in Ukraine and Afghanistan, offered to help arrange financing for the trip. She found a donor to pay for a plane and hotel expenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some Trump aides had their suspicions about the charity, its founders and Mr. Kellogg\u2019s daughter. They saw them as fervent Ukraine advocates, openly hostile toward Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump. (In reality, some were anti-Trump, others pro-Trump.) They worried, too, that a high-profile trip, by an outspoken Putin critic, might spook the Russians. Mr. Trump\u2019s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, vetoed the trip, and Mr. Vance moved to limit his remit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Kellogg could talk to the Ukrainians and Europeans, Mr. Vance told aides, \u201cbut keep him away from the Russians.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ONE MAN WOULD BE TALKING<\/strong>&nbsp;to the Russians during the transition \u2014 Steve Witkoff, the New York developer and old Trump friend who had been appointed special envoy to the Middle East. The man he would be talking to was the sovereign wealth fund chief, Mr. Dmitriev.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Dmitriev hadn\u2019t only flirted briefly with the Biden administration. He\u2019d had repeated flirtations with Trumpworld and come to know the president\u2019s son-in-law Jared Kushner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A month into his job as Middle East envoy, Mr. Witkoff traveled to Riyadh to meet with the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, about the war in Gaza. The crown prince was aware of Mr. Trump\u2019s campaign pledge to quickly negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, and he proffered an introduction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYou\u2019re going to have a lot of people come to you claiming to have a line into President Putin,\u201d the crown prince told Mr. Witkoff. And Mr. Dmitriev, he added, was \u201cthe right guy. We\u2019ve done business with him.\u201d Mr. Kushner vouched for him, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unlike the talks that Mr. Biden had refused to sign on to, Mr. Trump\u2019s advisers told themselves, these would be informal, \u201ca business guy to a business guy.\u201d And so Mr. Trump directed Mr. Witkoff to open a back channel to the Russian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-24-wlmh\/00inv-partnership-trump-24-wlmh-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"A woman standing amid rubble.\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>A woman assessing the damage to her apartment after a bombing in Kostiantynivka, a city in the contested Donetsk region. Tyler Hicks\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"part-two\">Part 2<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First Days<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/biden.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>WHAT<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>WOULD MR. TRUMP\u2019S<\/strong>&nbsp;Ukraine policy be? In the first days of his new administration, the competing camps set out their markers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Hegseth \u2014 onetime infantry officer turned Fox News host \u2014 arrived at the Pentagon on Jan. 25 as something of a blank slate on the war. \u201cHe didn\u2019t have any of his own thoughts on Russia and Ukraine,\u201d a former Pentagon official explained, adding, \u201cBut he had civilian advisers who did.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Day 4, the freshly minted defense secretary sat at a Pentagon conference table as one of his coterie of advisers argued for an immediate U-turn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ideological godfather of the group was Elbridge A. Colby, grandson of the Nixon-era C.I.A. director William E. Colby. The younger Mr. Colby and Mr. Vance had been introduced in 2015 by an editor at National Review who thought they were like-minded. Nearly nine years later, as Mr. Biden poured billions of dollars into arming Ukraine, Mr. Colby argued that \u201cwe would have been better served to put a lot more of that money to use in the Pacific.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, it was one of his disciples, Dan Caldwell, presenting the group\u2019s recommendations to Mr. Hegseth, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and other military leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Pentagon, Mr. Caldwell argued, should pause delivery of certain munitions that the Biden administration had promised to Ukraine, because, he believed, existing stocks were insufficient to execute America\u2019s war plans around the world. Nor should it use the additional $3.8 billion left unspent by the Biden administration to buy weapons for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>General Brown did not speak as Mr. Caldwell wrapped up. He simply shifted uncomfortably in his chair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>THE NEXT DAY,<\/strong>&nbsp;Mr. Kellogg and his team arrived at the Oval Office bearing several large charts that laid out their plan to end the war. One was headlined, hopefully, in Trumpian all-caps, \u201cAN AMERICA FIRST PLAN: TRUMP\u2019S HISTORIC PEACE DEAL FOR RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In many ways, the plan was a refinement of Mr. Kellogg\u2019s 2024 policy paper. It echoed some of Mr. Trump\u2019s campaign talking points: \u201cStop American taxpayer dollars funding an endless war\u201d and \u201cpush Europe to step up for its own security and stability needs.\u201d In Mr. Kellogg\u2019s presentation, he quoted from Mr. Trump\u2019s book \u201cThe Art of the Deal\u201d: \u201cLeverage is the biggest strength you can have.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. assistance would continue \u2014 but only if Mr. Zelensky agreed to negotiate with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Mr. Putin, there was incentive \u2014 the easing of sanctions \u2014 and counterincentive: choking off oil and gas revenues; pressuring China to end economic support for the Russian war machine; and working with the Europeans to use more than $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to rearm and rebuild Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First would come a cease-fire, then negotiations on a deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump broke in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine, he said, should not join NATO. (Mr. Kellogg advocated at least pausing such plans.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He disliked Mr. Zelensky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then, addressing his special envoy: \u201cRussia is mine, not yours,\u201d one official recalled the president saying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To which a bewildered Mr. Kellogg replied, \u201cOK, you\u2019re the president.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At one point, Mr. Hegseth chimed in with the recommendation against using the unspent $3.8 billion. \u201cWe\u2019re not going to do that right now,\u201d the president told him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth spoke briefly as the meeting broke up. One official recalls the president\u2019s message this way: \u201cPete, you\u2019re doing a great job, and you just go ahead and you don\u2019t need me to make decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>BACK AT THE PENTAGON,&nbsp;<\/strong>later that day, Mr. Hegseth pulled General Brown aside and told him, \u201cStop P.D.A.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P.D.A. referred to munitions and equipment Mr. Biden had agreed to provide using \u201cpresidential drawdown authority.\u201d But exactly what would be stopped? Generals in Europe sent blistering queries to the Pentagon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00int-partnership-trump-brown-mgwf\/00int-partnership-trump-brown-mgwf-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg\" alt=\"A man in military dress standing beside a man in a suit.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., then the Joint Chiefs chairman, left, with Pete Hegseth on his first official day as defense secretary last January. Shawn Thew\/EPA, via Shutterstock<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the urging of his chief of staff, Joe Kasper, Mr. Hegseth clarified his order. It would not affect supplies already headed to Ukraine by road or rail. But at the U.S. military base in Wiesbaden, Germany, nerve center of the partnership birthed by the Biden administration, Ukrainian officers suddenly saw on their screens that 11 supply flights from the United States had been canceled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Within minutes, the Ukrainians began calling people who might have insight and influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They called Mr. Kellogg, who called Mr. Waltz. President Zelensky\u2019s top adviser, Andriy Yermak, called Brian Kilmeade, a Fox News personality who was supportive of Ukraine and had administration clout. Mr. Kilmeade called Mr. Hegseth and Mr. Trump. (Mr. Kilmeade declined to comment.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump had just seemed to give Mr. Hegseth a blank check. Now he told his advisers that he had not, in fact, meant for the defense secretary to cut off the supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The flights would resume, after a six-day pause. But for the Ukrainians and their American military partners in Europe and at the Pentagon, the episode became a premonition of their deepest fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(The Pentagon declined to answer specific questions about Mr. Hegseth\u2019s role in this and other episodes. But the chief spokesman, Sean Parnell, said in a statement that Mr. Hegseth shared the president\u2019s vision and \u201cwould never carry out actions that contradict the wishes of the President or actions that contradict the pillars of the America First agenda.\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-26-gczl\/00inv-partnership-trump-26-gczl-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"Solders in fatigues pulling back a camouflaged curtain hiding artillery in the field.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>A Ukrainian artillery unit, part of the 28th Mechanized Brigade, prepared to fire a U.S.-made 155-millimeter shell from an M109 howitzer on the outskirts of Kostiantynivka. Tyler Hicks\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"part-three\">Part 3<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018Just Be Honest With Me\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/austin.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>AT THE PENTAGON,<\/strong>&nbsp;the Joint Staff had recently prepared an assessment of the Ukrainians\u2019 battlefield situation: Unless the administration tapped into the unspent $3.8 billion, Ukraine would start to run out of critical munitions by summer. The generals knew Mr. Trump\u2019s emerging strategy hinged on Europe taking the lead. But after depleting their already thin weapons stocks to aid Ukraine, the Joint Staff warned, the Europeans had little left to give.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia, in truth, was eking out only minimal territorial gains and taking huge losses \u2014 more than 250,000 soldiers killed and 500,000 more wounded. Still, without a steady supply of American munitions to Ukraine, one senior U.S. official said, \u201ceventually the music stops.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet if Ukraine\u2019s supporters at the Pentagon hoped to sway Mr. Hegseth and his advisers, the defense secretary\u2019s camp had a different interpretation: The Ukrainians were losing, and they had till summer to push them to cut a deal with Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the second week of February, Mr. Hegseth headed to Europe. His would not be a listening tour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MR. HEGSETH\u2019S FIRST STOP<\/strong>&nbsp;was the Army garrison in Stuttgart, Germany, to meet with his European commander, General Cavoli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For nearly three years, General Cavoli had been on Defense Secretary Austin\u2019s speed dial. Every day but Sunday, he had sent Mr. Austin a detailed battle report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The general started out by sending Mr. Hegseth the same daily reports, only to be told they were too long. He sent abbreviated daily reports, only to be told they were too frequent and still too long. Henceforth, General Cavoli would send a single weekly summary, four or five sentences long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the morning of Feb. 11, General Cavoli escorted Mr. Hegseth to his office and, sitting knee to knee, walked him through everything European Command was doing to support Ukraine. \u201cIf we stop doing this,\u201d he said, \u201cit\u2019s going to veer to the wrong side.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Exactly what it was that so annoyed the secretary, his aides were not sure. It could have been the protesters who had gathered outside, condemning the Pentagon\u2019s crackdown on transgender soldiers. It could have been jet lag. It could have been the meager refreshments \u2014 two small bottles of water for six people \u2014 or the way the general leaned forward as he spoke. Or it could have been General Cavoli\u2019s clear sympathy for Ukraine and animus toward Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In any case, this \u2014 their first and only meeting \u2014 \u201cwas when Hegseth began to associate General Cavoli with the Ukraine fight,\u201d an official said. \u201cHe started hating them both. And I don\u2019t know who he hated first.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>THE NEXT DAY,<\/strong>&nbsp;the secretary traveled to NATO headquarters in Brussels and met with Ukraine\u2019s defense minister, Rustem Umerov. The Ukrainians had repeatedly requested a proper sit-down. Instead it would be a brief stand-up affair in an anteroom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beforehand, according to an American official present, Mr. Hegseth dabbed his nose with powder from a small compact. \u201cLook commanding,\u201d he told one aide. The handshake with the Ukrainian might be shown on Fox; the president might be watching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/24\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-hegseth-umerov-plgh\/00inv-partnership-trump-hegseth-umerov-plgh-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"Pete Hegseth in a blue pinstripe suit, Rustem Umerov in green military dress.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Mr. Hegseth met with Rustem Umerov, the Ukrainian defense minister, at the NATO headquarters in Brussels last February.&nbsp; Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander C. Kubitza\/Department of Defense<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then the standing meeting began, Mr. Umerov coming in close, taking his voice down to a whisper, assuring the secretary that he knew America\u2019s political and security agenda might be changing. He didn\u2019t ask for new aid. He just needed to know one thing: Would the U.S. military continue to supply the munitions Ukraine was counting on, the ones approved by Mr. Biden? Every delivery sustained the lives of Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines; every delivery that didn\u2019t arrive one day meant those soldiers would die the next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Again and again, Mr. Umerov repeated his plea: \u201cI just need you to be honest with me. Just be honest with me.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI got goose bumps,\u201d said an American official standing nearby. \u201cHe wasn\u2019t pleading for the answer that he wanted, but just for honesty, some indication. He was saying: You can trust me; you can trust us. Just tell me what you guys are thinking.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Hegseth, aides said, simply nodded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MR. HEGSETH<\/strong>&nbsp;laid down his hard truths later that day at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the international alliance supporting the war effort:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine\u2019s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, \u201cThe United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-defence-group-jtgz\/00inv-partnership-trump-defence-group-jtgz-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"People seated with microphones along a large table circling a room.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a European alliance supporting the war effort, gathered in Brussels last February.&nbsp; Johanna Geron\/Reuters<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, U.S. troops would not join a peacekeeping force after a deal to end the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t think that it is wise to take Ukrainian NATO membership off the table and make territorial concessions to the Russians before the negotiations have even started,\u201d the German defense minister, Boris Pistorius, broke in. \u201cHe had steam coming off his head,\u201d a senior U.S. military officer in the room said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That was just the sort of stunned reaction Mr. Hegseth had been seeking, U.S. officials recalled, and afterward, he and his adviser Mr. Caldwell pronounced \u201cmission accomplished!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EVERY POINT<\/strong>&nbsp;of Mr. Hegseth\u2019s speech had been coordinated with Mr. Trump\u2019s top advisers via a Signal chat. Absent from the group was Mr. Kellogg. That day and over the next several days, he would come to better understand what Mr. Trump meant when he declared, \u201cRussia is mine, not yours.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At 1:30 p.m. on Feb. 11, Mr. Waltz, the national security adviser, took to X to announce that Mr. Witkoff was \u201cleaving Russian airspace with Marc Fogel,\u201d an American teacher jailed in Russia since 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It quickly emerged that the freeing of Mr. Fogel was the fruit of the talks that Mr. Witkoff \u2014 unknown to Mr. Kellogg and all but a handful of others \u2014 had begun with Mr. Dmitriev during the transition. Now the back channel had passed its first test.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next morning, the president posted his own announcement, on Truth Social. He had just finished a \u201chighly productive\u201d call with Mr. Putin; their teams would start negotiations immediately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the call, according to two U.S. officials, Mr. Putin had praised Mr. Witkoff. He would lead Mr. Trump\u2019s team, along with John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director; Marco Rubio, the secretary of state; and Mr. Waltz. The post did not mention the special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Mr. Kellogg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Germany on Feb. 14 for the Munich Security Conference, unsure whether he still had a job or what it entailed, Mr. Kellogg encountered European and Ukrainian leaders in their own storm of confusion. \u201cDo we still have an alliance?\u201d the Polish deputy prime minister, Rados\u0142aw Sikorski, asked. Mr. Kellogg sought to reassure them, describing himself as \u201cyour best friend\u201d in the administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Hegseth loyalist at the conference, though, rendered it differently in messages to Washington, accusing Mr. Kellogg of claiming, \u201cI\u2019m holding the line against these isolationists in the administration.\u201d This only cemented the envoy\u2019s outsider status, as did a Fox News item juxtaposing his latest social media post about Mr. Zelensky (he was \u201cthe embattled and courageous leader of a nation at war\u201d) with one from Mr. Trump (he was \u201ca dictator without elections\u201d).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When Mr. Kellogg visited the Oval Office soon after, the president pounced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSo you call Zelensky embattled and courageous?\u201d he snapped, according to two officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSir, he is,\u201d Mr. Kellogg responded. \u201cIt\u2019s an existential fight on Ukrainian soil for his nation\u2019s survival. When was the last time an American president faced that? It was Abraham Lincoln.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recounting the episode later to other advisers, Mr. Trump grumbled, \u201cHe\u2019s an idiot.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-30-vzbg\/00inv-partnership-trump-30-vzbg-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"Small sheds in front of a brown field.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The Inhulska uranium mine, seen from an apartment building in Pervozvanivka. Brendan Hoffman for The New York Time<\/em>s<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"part-four\">Part 4<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018Be Very, Very Thankful\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/bessent.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MR. TRUMP HAD MADE<\/strong>&nbsp;some things crystal clear: For all the help America had given the Ukrainians, it should get something in return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the golf course with Mr. Trump during the campaign, Senator Lindsey Graham had floated an idea. The South Carolina Republican had recently returned from Ukraine, where officials had given him a map of the country\u2019s mineral riches. The senator recalls showing it to Mr. Trump, who proclaimed, \u201cI want half.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No one had a firm fix on how much mineral wealth the Ukrainians actually had, or whether it could be mined anytime soon. But by his first weeks back in office, Mr. Trump had fixated on striking an immediate deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What ensued might have been a set piece from a madcap diplomatic farce: the president\u2019s men, rivalries on display, competing to see whose version of a deal would win over the Ukrainians \u2014 and Mr. Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First up was the Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent. His plan called for Ukraine to cede half its revenue from mineral, oil and gas resources in perpetuity. He arrived in Kyiv on Feb. 12. Several top officials seemed to give positive feedback, but Mr. Zelensky declined to sign, saying he had yet to read the document. Frustrated and empty-handed, Mr. Bessent left town.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Vance, Mr. Rubio and Mr. Kellogg would be meeting Mr. Zelensky in Munich on Feb. 14, hopeful of agreement on a revised version of the document. They were so hopeful that they had a room all decked out, with Ukrainian and American flags, an ornate desk for the signing and tape markers on the floor instructing the dignitaries where to stand. But beforehand, Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio pulled Mr. Zelensky away, and the Ukrainian made clear that he was not ready to sign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even so, the show would go on, and later, when Mr. Vance asked if he would sign, the president turned to the justice minister, Olha Stefanishyna, who told him, \u201cNo, you cannot sign this \u2014 it has to be approved by the Rada,\u201d Ukraine\u2019s parliament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now Mr. Kellogg headed to Kyiv to try a different tack. He asked Mr. Zelensky\u2019s top adviser, Mr. Yermak, to arrange for the president to sign a brief letter saying he&nbsp;<em>intended<\/em>&nbsp;to sign a document, details to follow. Mr. Trump, he explained, felt the Ukrainians were giving him the runaround.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Yermak sounded amenable \u2014 until, suddenly, he wasn\u2019t: He had just begun discussions, he told the American, about a different arrangement with a different administration official \u2014 the commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With talks flailing and with the president\u2019s blessing, Mr. Lutnick had thrown together a plan: Ukraine would cede half of its profits from minerals, oil and gas. And there would be a cap, of $500 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Kyiv, Mr. Kellogg rushed to the U.S. embassy and called Mr. Lutnick. Mr. Yermak was on the verge of getting Mr. Zelensky to sign his letter. Would Mr. Lutnick stand down? He would, an embassy official recalled him saying. Only after boarding his train back to Poland did Mr. Kellogg learn from Mr. Yermak that he and the commerce secretary were talking again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this swirl of players and documents, it fell to Mr. Waltz to call Mr. Bessent and Mr. Lutnick into the White House situation room. Mr. Trump would sort matters out. In the end, it would be Mr. Bessent carrying his plan \u2014 with the unlimited upside for America \u2014 across the finish line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Only now Mr. Zelensky was insisting on a White House signing ceremony, and kept insisting even after Mr. Kellogg warned that he was setting himself up for a fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ON THE MORNING<\/strong>&nbsp;of Feb. 28, Mr. Kellogg, Mr. Graham and several other Ukraine supporters met with Mr. Zelensky for a prep session at the Hay-Adams Hotel, a short walk from the White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There would be much tortured back story to contend with. During his first term, Mr. Trump had come to blame Ukraine, not the Kremlin, for the 2016 election interference that spawned the Russia investigation. And it was his effort to have Ukraine investigate the Bidens that led to his first impeachment. In meetings, according to five aides, Mr. Trump would sometimes say of Mr. Zelensky, \u201cHe\u2019s a motherfucker.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mindful of all this, according to several participants, Mr. Kellogg and the others counseled Mr. Zelensky to flatter Mr. Trump a bit, \u201cto be very, very thankful to the United States of America for what it\u2019s done\u201d for Ukraine. They counseled him specifically not to show Mr. Trump the photos he had brought of emaciated Ukrainian prisoners of war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Zelensky took almost none of the pregame advice: The fall that Mr. Kellogg had feared was broadcast live, the images and insults then replayed and replayed again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/16\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch4-zwpt\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch4-zwpt-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald J. Trump, sitting side by side and gesturing at each other.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Mr. Zelensky and President Trump in the Oval Office in February. Doug Mills\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The schedule had included a working lunch. Instead, the Ukrainians were banished to the Roosevelt Room as the Americans debated next moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cLet\u2019s just have the lunch and talk our way through it,\u201d Mr. Trump told his advisers. But first Mr. Waltz, and then others, argued that Mr. Zelensky had treated the president badly and should be sent packing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Waltz and Mr. Rubio would perform the eviction; a lunch, they told the Ukrainians, was clearly not going to be productive. The Ukrainians resisted. The Americans insisted. On the way out, a senior U.S. official recalled, Ukraine\u2019s ambassador, Oksana Markarova, looked as if she was crying. Afterward, Mr. Trump and his advisers ate the lunch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his office that afternoon, Fox News rerunning the showdown, Mr. Hegseth turned up the volume to hear the commentary. Mr. Caldwell and others came in, Pentagon officials recalled, and the men took turns gleefully, even giddily, deriding Mr. Zelensky and praising Mr. Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-27-hvlk\/00inv-partnership-trump-27-hvlk-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"A man covering his face as twigs and leaves whip through the air.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The 14th Mechanized Brigade fired at Russian forces from an artillery position in the Kupiansk area. Tyler Hicks\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"part-five\">Part 5<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Ukrainians<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/caldwell.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>THE FOLLOWING MONDAY,<\/strong>&nbsp;March 3, Mr. Trump gathered his advisers in the Oval Office to consider recommendations for pausing aid to Ukraine. Mr. Caldwell stood outside, and as the president\u2019s aides filed in, he handed out copies of an Associated Press report with quotations highlighted in yellow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Zelensky had told reporters in London that he believed the partnership remained strong, that U.S. aid would keep flowing, that a negotiated peace was \u201cvery, very far away.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To the president\u2019s advisers, the article was proof that Mr. Zelensky was both taking their support for granted and dismissing out of hand Mr. Trump\u2019s promise of cutting a deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump ordered a freeze in assistance to Ukraine. The only debate was over its duration. Aides recommended a week, but the president wanted maximum leverage. \u201cNo,\u201d he told them. \u201cLet\u2019s not say when the freeze will end.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EVEN BEFORE THE FREEZE<\/strong>,<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>two blows had shaken the partnership (and perhaps strengthened the president\u2019s hand).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the fall of 2023, easing a prohibition against American boots on Ukrainian ground, Mr. Biden had sent a small complement of military advisers and other officers to Kyiv; the limit was later raised to 133. But when Mr. Hegseth saw an internal report that there were now 84 officers in Ukraine, he circled the number and declared \u201cno more.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After much prodding, Mr. Biden had also let the Ukrainians launch long-range American missiles known as Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, into Russia to protect forces they had sent into the Kursk region. Mr. Trump hadn\u2019t rescinded that permission, and with the Russian defenders and North Korean allies closing in, the Ukrainians asked General Cavoli to free up their remaining 18 ATACMS. He was their steadfast champion, yet he had refused; the missiles were an older variant with little chance of penetrating Russian air defenses. Better to save them for more vulnerable targets. The Ukrainians said they understood, but still it chafed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2024\/12\/26\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch5\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch5-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"A damaged missile lies in a field in Russian territory near Ukraine.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>A photograph released by the Russian Defense Ministry purporting to show the remains of a U.S.-produced ATACMS missile in the Kursk region of Russia. Russian Defense Ministry<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now came the freeze, and once again, Mr. Umerov was pleading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What would it take, he asked Mr. Hegseth the next day, to get the aid flowing again?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Hegseth stuck to the script crafted by the White House: \u201cWe need to see you taking the negotiation process seriously.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TAKING THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS<\/strong>&nbsp;seriously would mean facing up to some painful diplomatic candor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On March 11, Mr. Rubio stood in a conference room at a hotel in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and spread a large map of Ukraine on the table. It charted the two armies\u2019 line of contact \u2014 the line cleaving the country between Ukrainian- and Russian-held land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI want to know what your absolute bottom lines are; what do you have to have to survive as a country?\u201d he asked the Ukrainians, according to a U.S. official who was present.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-jeddah-jpmt\/00inv-partnership-trump-jeddah-jpmt-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"Men siting at a large table in a room with thick curtains and multiple chandeliers.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>A March meeting of American and Ukrainian officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opening the day, the Ukrainians had quickly agreed to Mr. Trump\u2019s call for an immediate, across-the-board 30-day cease-fire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, as the group stood peering down at the map of Ukraine, Mr. Waltz handed Mr. Umerov a dark blue marker and told him, \u201cStart drawing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Umerov traced Ukraine\u2019s northern border with Russia and Belarus, then followed the line of contact through the oblasts of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He then circled the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe\u2019s largest. According to a Ukrainian official, Mr. Umerov warned that the Russian occupiers were failing to maintain the plant, risking \u201cnuclear disaster.\u201d Ukraine wanted it back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally he pointed to the Kinburn Spit, a needle of beach and salt meadow jutting into the Black Sea. Regaining control of the spit, he explained, would allow Ukrainian ships to move in and out of the shipyards of Mykolaiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>Ukraine\u2019s first territorial suggestion for a peace plan<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><em>A Ukrainian delegation indicated that it was prepared to accept an agreement that stopped the war at the current front line, provided it kept two areas vital to national security.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/map-downscreen-tall.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: The Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute\u2019s Critical Threats Project (Russian territorial control as of Feb. 19, 2025). Daniel Wood\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Across three years of war, Mr. Zelensky had vowed and vowed again that Ukraine\u2019s armies would fight until they won back their stolen land. This was his most politically untenable of red lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here, then, was the breakthrough moment, one American official recalled \u2014 \u201cthe first time that Zelensky, through his people, said, in order to reach peace I\u2019m willing to give up 20 percent of my country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Ukrainians, Mr. Trump\u2019s advisers told one another, were now \u201cin the box.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>LATER THAT DAY<\/strong>,<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>Mr. Trump directed that aid resume, and his advisers drew up the parameters of a deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine would forfeit territory along Mr. Umerov\u2019s line. While Ukraine could join the European Union, Mr. Trump would block admission to NATO. The nuclear plant would be run by the United States or an international organization. The Americans would ask Russia to return the Kinburn Spit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then there was Crimea. The peninsula, seized by Russia in 2014, was perhaps the most powerful symbol of the homeland yearnings underpinning the war on both sides. Accepting it as Russian, the Trump team reasoned, would be a powerful carrot for Mr. Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It would also be one of the hardest for the Ukrainians to accept. The mere suggestion, at the talks\u2019 start, had set Mr. Umerov to speechifying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYou can\u2019t believe Russian propaganda, because they will tell you that Crimea is not Ukrainian, that it has always been Russian,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd I am here to tell you that I am Crimean Tatar and Crimea is Ukrainian.\u201d His family had been exiled by the Russians to Uzbekistan but returned to Crimea when he was 9. There he had watched his father and brother build a house with their own hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now Mr. Rubio told the Ukrainians that Mr. Trump wouldn\u2019t ask them, or the Europeans, to recognize the Russians\u2019 claim. \u201cWe\u2019ll be the only ones,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Americans understood the Ukrainians\u2019 objections and reservations. But as a senior U.S. official recalled, \u201cThe specific question we asked them was, \u2018Are you going to walk away over this?\u2019 And they said, \u2018No.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It was in the midst of the talks that Mr. Trump made official Mr. Kellogg\u2019s diminished role, posting on Truth Social that he was now \u201cSpecial Envoy to Ukraine.\u201d Mr. Kellogg would try to comfort the Ukrainians, counseling them to think of post-World War II Germany \u2014 divided between the U.S.-aligned West and the Soviet-aligned East. The Russians might get Crimea and large swaths of the east today, but in the future Ukraine could again be made whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now the ball was in the Russians\u2019 court. And if Mr. Putin refused to play? \u201cThen he has a Donald Trump problem,\u201d Mr. Rubio told the Ukrainians in Jeddah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-40-wmfv\/00inv-partnership-trump-40-wmfv-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"Children with fishing poles, dark smoke in the background.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Boys fishing as smoke rose from dozens of reported Russian drone strikes on industrial sites in Dnipro. Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"part-six\">Part 6<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Russians<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/anton.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>THE AMERICANS MIGHT&nbsp;<\/strong>have been<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>comfortable<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>bullying the Ukrainians. But to get Mr. Putin to play, they felt they needed a softer approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the first negotiating session, in February in Riyadh, Mr. Rubio had sought to break the ice. He channeled his inner Brando.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sitting across from the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and the close Putin aide Yuri Ushakov, he offered his rendition of the scene from \u201cThe Godfather\u201d in which Vito Corleone counsels his son about threats from rival crime families and tells him: \u201cI spend my life trying not to be careless. Women and children can be careless, but not men.\u201d Nuclear powers, Mr. Rubio explained, need to communicate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even the characteristically scowling Mr. Lavrov broke a smile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From the beginning, Mr. Trump\u2019s advisers had judged that Mr. Putin had two options:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fight on, at great cost \u2014 in battlefield dead, in economic havoc, in damage to his relationship with the American president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or cut a deal, laden with what Mr. Waltz touted to the Russians as \u201call of this upside\u201d: an easing of sanctions, a new era of business cooperation \u2014 even an end to exile from the group of leading industrialized nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What made Mr. Trump confident about the upside was his belief in a personal connection to Mr. Putin. Returning from Moscow, Mr. Witkoff would gush about the Russian\u2019s \u201chuge respect\u201d for the president. But there was more than that: For the first time in years, Mr. Trump\u2019s aides told themselves, an American president and many top advisers were courting the Russians, listening with sympathetic ears. Surely Mr. Putin would see value there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet it was not quite so simple. Mr. Witkoff may have been plying his back channel with Mr. Dmitriev. But the official negotiations would be conducted by two very different Russians, seasoned diplomats with a more orthodox adherence to geopolitical grievances and rivalries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Lavrov was a nationalist hard-liner vehemently opposed to concessions to end the war; he spoke ominously about \u201csolving the Ukraine problem once and for all.\u201d Mr. Ushakov came across as more open. Yet he, too, spoke frequently about the war\u2019s \u201croot causes\u201d \u2014 Kremlin shorthand for Mr. Putin\u2019s bitterness over his country\u2019s diminished post-Soviet world stature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This front-channel, back-channel tension flared in the episode of the chairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the February talks in Riyadh, Mr. Rubio, Mr. Waltz and Mr. Witkoff had taken their seats opposite Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Ushakov. The third chair, Mr. Dmitriev\u2019s, was empty. \u201cWe want to wait for him?\u201d a puzzled Mr. Rubio asked. \u201cNo,\u201d Mr. Lavrov responded, and the chair was moved to the back of the room.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the second session began, there were three chairs on the Russian side, and Mr. Dmitriev was in the room. According to two U.S. officials who were present, Mr. Lavrov moved the chair back to the rear, only to have Mr. Dmitriev retrieve it, sit down and later extol the economic benefits of a peace deal. (A spokeswoman for Mr. Dmitriev said the American account of the episode was \u201ccompletely not true,\u201d adding, \u201cThe meeting was always preplanned and structured with clearly defined political and economic segments.\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/16\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch6-jmhp\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch6-jmhp-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg\" alt=\"Men sitting around a table with multiple floral centerpieces in a richly decorated room.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>American and Russian officials discussed ending the war at a February meeting in Riyadh. Evelyn Hockstein\/Reuters<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If all of this bred uncertainty about where Mr. Putin stood, the hard-liners sought to put it to rest. To understand Mr. Putin\u2019s negotiating position, they told the Americans, they should refer to his June 2024 speech to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Mr. Putin would not end the war until he fulfilled his territorial ambitions \u2014 complete control of the four oblasts in Ukraine\u2019s east.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At that moment, in three of them, Russia controlled less than three-quarters of the territory. Mr. Trump could force the Ukrainians to abandon the rest, or the Russians would fight on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Putin, the hard-liners seemed to be saying, wasn\u2019t terribly keen on the Americans\u2019 upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ONCE THEY HAD MANEUVERED&nbsp;<\/strong>the Ukrainians into the box, the Americans hoped to persuade the Russians to make concessions of their own. Wouldn\u2019t Mr. Putin want to stay on Mr. Trump\u2019s good side?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A week after Jeddah, Mr. Trump called Mr. Putin and asked him to accept the cease-fire. But the Russian would only agree to negotiate a narrow pause \u2014 of strikes on energy infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To Mr. Trump\u2019s advisers, perhaps the problem was less the incentives than skepticism that the president would deliver. \u201cToday, Trump says one thing; tomorrow, who knows?\u201d a senior European official recalls Mr. Lavrov saying. During his first presidency, after all, Mr. Trump had spoken about warming relations only to have Russia hawks in key national security posts double down with more adversarial policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, preparing for a second round of talks in Riyadh in late March, the Americans sought to show that this time would be different. They sent representatives who had been prominent critics of the Biden administration\u2019s support for Ukraine \u2014 Michael Anton, the State Department\u2019s head of policy planning, and Mr. Hegseth\u2019s aide Mr. Caldwell. \u201cA lot of people you don\u2019t like are not here,\u201d Mr. Anton told the Russians in Riyadh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Americans hoped to parlay the freeze on energy strikes into the broad cease-fire that the Ukrainians had accepted in Jeddah. But the talks would end where they had begun, with the Russians agreeing only to freeze energy strikes for 30 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Witkoff remained an optimist. \u201cSteve says, \u2018It\u2019s always going great,\u2019\u201d a senior U.S. official said. Yet however much the president\u2019s advisers wanted to believe in Mr. Dmitriev, many still couldn\u2019t. Some, too, harbored misgivings about Mr. Witkoff. They were reluctant to speak up because of his friendship with the president, but they noticed how Mr. Witkoff sometimes seemed to lack an understanding of Ukraine\u2019s geography and its strategic implications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There was also his insistence on meeting alone with Mr. Putin and his aides; some American officials worried that would leave the diplomatically inexperienced Mr. Witkoff open to manipulation. At the first meeting, he was not accompanied by a U.S. government translator; while he did take one to subsequent meetings, he would not bring a note taker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHe felt like Putin had invited him, and that he had this level of rapport with Putin,\u201d an official explained. Mr. Witkoff told colleagues, \u201cI\u2019m a trained lawyer \u2014 I was the note taker.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the next three months, Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Dmitriev tried to move the needle. The two men privately discussed possible new concessions to Mr. Putin that went far beyond those presented to the Ukrainians. Mr. Witkoff smoothed the way for Mr. Dmitriev\u2019s brief April visit to Washington, bearing what the Russian touted as new proposals for consideration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The meetings were held at Mr. Witkoff\u2019s house in the Kalorama neighborhood, and to promote Mr. Dmitriev\u2019s credibility, Mr. Witkoff invited Mr. Rubio and a group of senators to dinner on the night of April 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among the senators was Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat and outspoken Ukraine supporter. He had accepted the invitation, he recalled, with \u201cmixed feelings\u201d about \u201chaving this very elegant meal with a guy who is one of Putin\u2019s henchmen.\u201d He added, \u201cI was a little put off by the friendliness, the chumminess, the coziness between him and Witkoff.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the dinner, Mr. Blumenthal said, he confronted Mr. Dmitriev, \u201cas politely and courteously as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI didn\u2019t say, \u2018You have blood on your hands,\u2019\u201d he recalled. \u201cBut I basically said, \u2018We hope you will come to the table because Russia here is the aggressor, and people are dying.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One Trump adviser said the dinner was a way to pass a message to Mr. Putin through Mr. Dmitriev: \u201cWe have a lot of political obstacles here. This is what I heard here. Here are the political realities in Washington.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>IT WAS AMID THE HOPE AGAINST HOPE<\/strong>&nbsp;in negotiations that Mr. Hegseth\u2019s acrimony toward General Cavoli erupted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The morning after the Dmitriev dinner party, the CNN correspondent Natasha Bertrand posted a message on X quoting the general\u2019s remarks to a Senate committee that Russia constituted a \u201cchronic\u201d and \u201cgrowing\u201d threat. Aides forwarded the post to Mr. Hegseth as evidence that the general was undercutting efforts to win over Mr. Putin. \u201cFire Cavoli,\u201d Mr. Hegseth barked to his chief of staff, Mr. Kasper, according to officials briefed on the conversation. General Cavoli would have become one of the at least two dozen&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/11\/07\/us\/politics\/hegseth-firing-military-leaders.html\">top military officers<\/a>&nbsp;purged by the defense secretary had Mr. Kasper not pointed out that a European general would have temporarily overseen U.S. nuclear forces in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-cavoli-mhfl\/00inv-partnership-trump-cavoli-mhfl-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"A man in a suit speaking with a man in a military uniform.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli speaking with Senator Rick Scott before the start of an Armed Services Committee hearing in April. Brendan Smialowski\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On April 8, the general appeared before a House committee. First, though, a Caldwell ally at the Pentagon, Katherine Thompson, testified that \u201ccontours of a lasting peace are coming into view,\u201d that an initial cease-fire \u2014 presumably the freeze on energy strikes \u2014 was taking hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then General Cavoli spoke and, apparently unaware how close he had just come to being fired, repeated his warning about the Russian threat. This time the secretary called him and, according to an official briefed on the conversation, told him that by his \u201cwords, demeanor and testimony\u201d he was undermining the president. What had he said? the general asked. \u201cIt\u2019s not what you said necessarily; it\u2019s what you didn\u2019t say,\u201d the secretary responded. \u201cYou didn\u2019t say cease-fire, you didn\u2019t say peace, you didn\u2019t say negotiations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, that initial cease-fire was holding only in the slimmest sense, with each side accusing the other of violations. Ukraine agreed to extend the pause; Russia refused.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even Mr. Trump had to ask, \u201cDoes Putin really want a deal, or does he want all of Ukraine?\u201d The president, one aide said, was beginning to suspect that he had \u201ccompletely overestimated\u201d his ability to charm Mr. Putin. A few weeks later, a senior European official spoke with Mr. Putin. Mr. Zelensky had conceded so much; Mr. Trump had offered so much. \u201cIf you ask me, Trump\u2019s position is very close to your position,\u201d he told the Russian president. \u201cWhy don\u2019t you agree to a cease-fire and get the Americans to lift the sanctions?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe want to get peace,\u201d Mr. Putin responded, and then reiterated his maximalist demands: Not only did he want all of the contested territory; he wanted the Americans and Europeans to recognize the legitimacy of his claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The European official later pressed Mr. Witkoff to take more initiative to bring Mr. Putin to the table. Mr. Witkoff\u2019s message was: \u201cWe have tried every imaginable idea. And none of it was working. And we\u2019d gotten to this place that, maybe, they just needed to fight it out.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch7-new-fkmj\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch7-new-fkmj-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"People with flashlights walking amid rubble.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Civilians at a bombed apartment building in Sloviansk, part of the Donetsk region. Tyler Hicks\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"part-seven\">Part 7<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018De Facto Anti-Ukraine Policy\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/biden.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>THE LINE OF CONTACT<\/strong>&nbsp;stretched for 750 miles. By June, the twin vectors of the war \u2014 the war of words and the war of blood and bullets \u2014 were coalescing at one point on that line, at the place called Pokrovsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the previous July, the Russians had increasingly trained their forces and firepower on the city. A railway hub of 60,000 people before the war, Pokrovsk was now a shell of fewer than 2,000 holding out in the ruins. The Russians\u2019 losses had been calamitous, many tens of thousands. And still Pokrovsk had not fallen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Mr. Putin and his generals, though, the ghost city was gold \u2014 another trophy in the yearslong campaign to capture all of Donetsk Oblast. If Mr. Putin could finally win Pokrovsk, it would signal to Mr. Trump that Russian victory was inevitable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Ukraine and its champions, Pokrovsk was asking a different question: Would the Pentagon provide the munitions to help sustain Ukraine\u2019s defenses, to show Mr. Putin that the price of Pokrovsk was too much to pay?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That question was at the center of powerful crosscurrents roiling the Pentagon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>General Cavoli and others who had long worked to support Ukraine remained deeply devoted to the cause. Mr. Vance\u2019s allies, people like Mr. Colby and Mr. Caldwell, were eager to start withholding munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their devotion was directed elsewhere \u2014 to Asia, to hedge against Chinese designs on Taiwan, and to the Middle East, where war was brewing with Iran and where Israel, fighting in Gaza, was asking for about 100,000 155-millimeter shells, a large proportion of the U.S. military\u2019s depleted stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For three years, even as the Pentagon struggled to increase production of critical weaponry, the Biden administration had poured munitions into Ukraine. Mr. Vance\u2019s allies were unwilling to take that risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a senior U.S. military officer put it: \u201cThey believed that Ukraine was on the verge of failing. The fact that empirical evidence indicated the opposite didn\u2019t seem to bother them; if anything, they seemed to think it meant that they should help Ukraine fail faster to get it over with.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The man in the middle, with his hand on the spigot, was Mr. Hegseth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His guide in navigating this dynamic would be something called the stoplight chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>THE STOPLIGHT CHART<\/strong>&nbsp;compared the number of certain munitions the Pentagon had in stock with the number needed for war plans around the world. If the military had less than half the quantity required, a munition was coded \u201cred.\u201d Mr. Hegseth had three options: Stop providing red munitions, halve the supply or cut it at a rate to be determined. He could also maintain the status quo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In February, Mr. Caldwell and his allies recommended that Mr. Hegseth start withholding a range of critical munitions. Instead, the secretary stayed the course. He didn\u2019t want to get ahead of the president, he told them, didn\u2019t want to imperil the minerals deal. (It would be signed in April.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In March, after Mr. Trump called off the aid freeze imposed after the Oval Office fiasco, Mr. Caldwell and his allies recommended hewing to the status quo, but with one exception \u2014 U.S.-made 155-millimeter shells that Mr. Biden had promised Ukraine just before leaving office. (The Pentagon could still provide shells purchased from abroad.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The shells, fired from M777 howitzers, had been key to Ukraine\u2019s successful 2022 counteroffensive. And while the Ukrainians had increasingly come to rely on domestically produced attack drones, the 155s remained a workhorse of their arsenal. Pentagon stocks were precariously low, Mr. Caldwell told Mr. Hegseth; a cutoff was the only way to force the Europeans to step up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Kasper sought, futilely, to dissuade his boss; to hold back the Russians, the Ukrainians needed more shells than Europe could provide. But Mr. Hegseth, unannounced, ordered the freeze. Some American officers called it a \u201cshadow ban.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Which was why, for three and a half months, those thousands upon thousands of shells lay waiting on pallets at the Army\u2019s ammunition depot in western Germany. It was why General Cavoli and his staff sent email after email pleading for their release. And it was why it fell to General Keane, a Fox contributor, to visit Mr. Hegseth at the Pentagon and then call the president to get the train moving. (General Keane declined to comment.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe last time I checked, our policy was to support Ukraine,\u201d a senior U.S. military officer said. \u201cThe president said to restart shipments. And these people at the Pentagon were preventing that from happening, creating a de facto anti-Ukraine policy by dragging their feet, putting sticks in the spokes and slow-rolling support in these nasty little ways.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Near Pokrovsk, a commander who goes by the name Alex was rationing 155s. With 200 a day, his men could attack only five of the 50 targets spotted by reconnaissance drones. \u201cIt\u2019s not enough to hold the line,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alex had fought in Bakhmut, another small city that had once seemed to encompass the full stakes of the war. He had watched the war evolve. \u201cIn Bakhmut, it was Ukrainian soldier and Russian soldier, face to face, in trenches,\u201d he said. In Pokrovsk, \u201cdrones are killing the Russians more than bullets and artillery shells.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And still the Ukrainians were overmatched \u2014 in drones, in troops and in those mainstay artillery shells. \u201cThe fewer shells we have, the more casualties we have,\u201d Alex explained. \u201cThere is a direct correlation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ON JUNE 11<\/strong>, the same day Mr. Hegseth testified to the Senate subcommittee that the munitions Mr. Biden had promised were \u201cstill flowing,\u201d he signed an updated version of the stoplight chart. It required European Command to get his permission before sending red munitions to the Ukrainians. Deliveries were halted, awaiting clarity from Mr. Hegseth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI\u2019ve never seen this before in my life,\u201d Gen. Dan Caine, the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told colleagues who confronted him about the order. (General Brown had been fired in late February.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/01\/09\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-hegseth-caine-vqcz\/00inv-partnership-trump-hegseth-caine-vqcz-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg\" alt=\"Two men seated before microphones in a wood-paneled room.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Gen. Dan Caine, the Joint Chiefs chairman, with Mr. Hegseth at a Senate hearing in June. Kenny Holston\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>General Cavoli would be retiring on July 1, and he sent Mr. Hegseth what American officers called the \u201cbeginning of the end\u201d memo. The Ukrainians were slowly losing, he wrote, and if the Pentagon did not provide more munitions, they would lose faster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Europeans had already developed a plan to arm the Ukrainians from their existing weapons stocks and buy new U.S.-made munitions for themselves and for Ukraine. Yet those weapons would hardly arrive immediately; it would take time to expand production lines, time to manufacture the munitions. And with everyone\u2019s stocks depleted, the Europeans and Ukrainians would have to wait in a queue behind the U.S. military to buy the new weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine also needed more than artillery shells. If the 155s were the most basic frozen red munitions, the most technologically advanced were the PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptors. Nothing else was as proficient at shooting down the ballistic missiles terrorizing Ukrainian cities; only the Americans could provide them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They were also in chronically short supply. Only 50 or so came off the production line each month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>News that the Ukrainians wouldn\u2019t be getting their scheduled complement of interceptors came as the Russians were quickening their barrage. In May, they had fired 45 ballistic missiles into Ukraine; in June, they would fire 59. By month\u2019s end, the Ukrainians\u2019 supply of PAC-3s would dwindle to 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Between 6 p.m. on July 3 and the next morning, the Russians launched 539 attack drones and seven ballistic missiles toward Kyiv, one of their heaviest bombardments of the capital, the Ukrainian Air Force reported. Two civilians were killed, 31 more wounded. The Polish embassy was damaged by falling debris.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On July 4, Mr. Kellogg called the president and told him, \u201cThis is how wars spin out of control,\u201d explaining the stoplight chart and referring to Poland\u2019s membership in NATO. Mr. Trump then directed him to tell Mr. Hegseth to immediately transfer 10 PAC-3s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two weeks later, the 10 interceptors had yet to be sent. Heading home from Kyiv, Mr. Kellogg stopped in Wiesbaden. The Pentagon, officials there told him, was \u201cmetering\u201d deliveries of a range of munitions to Ukraine. Back in Washington, he visited the Pentagon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYou\u2019re slowing things down. This is killing them,\u201d he told Mr. Hegseth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cNo, we\u2019re not,\u201d the secretary replied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>General Caine was in the room, and now he interceded. \u201cWhat SACEUR wants, SACEUR gets,\u201d General Caine told Mr. Hegseth, referring to the new supreme allied commander in Europe, Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At month\u2019s end, the Ukrainians finally received 30 interceptors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A SMALL TEAM<\/strong>&nbsp;of Ukraine specialists \u2014 six or so \u2014 worked in the office of the under secretary for policy, Mr. Colby. A senior military officer visited the team in late June. \u201cThey were literally afraid to say the word \u2018Ukraine,\u2019\u201d he recalled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During the Biden administration, Ukrainian officials in Washington and Kyiv had been in near-constant contact with the Ukraine specialists. Now, as the Russians surged drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, the Ukrainians were desperate to acquire relatively cheap interceptors. One general who oversaw air defenses in Kyiv recalled: \u201cWe were sending the Ukraine team messages. We said we needed more of the drone interceptors. But all of a sudden, they were not responding anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Word had come down from Mr. Hegseth\u2019s office that the specialists were not to communicate with the Ukrainians without express permission to do so. Some Hegseth aides said they suspected the specialists would try to sabotage efforts to redirect the interceptors and other critical munitions to the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Late at night and on weekends, the Ukrainians would get messages from their old Pentagon contacts: \u201cWe\u2019re here, but we can\u2019t do anything. We\u2019re sorry.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chill ascended the ranks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>General Caine had been sworn in as Joint Chiefs chairman in April. It would be August before he even called his Ukrainian counterpart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s 100 percent Pol Pot,\u201d a senior military officer explained. \u201cThere\u2019s very much a Leninist angle here, like, we\u2019re going to tell you the sky is green, and so the sky is green.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/17\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch8-fzcj\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch8-fzcj-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"A man in fatigues walking among artillery shells.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The 28th Mechanized Brigade in Kostiantynivka, a key strategic goal in Russia\u2019s plans to conquer the Donetsk Oblast and the greater Donbas region. Tyler Hicks\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"part-eight\">Part 8<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018Something That Is Working\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/hegseth.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>IN SO MANY WAYS<\/strong>, the partnership was breaking apart. But there was a counternarrative, spooled out largely in secret. At its center was the C.I.A.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where Mr. Hegseth had marginalized his Ukraine-supporting generals, the C.I.A. director, Mr. Ratcliffe, had consistently protected his own officers\u2019 efforts for Ukraine. He kept the agency\u2019s presence in the country at full strength; funding for its programs there even increased. When Mr. Trump ordered the March aid freeze, the U.S. military rushed to shut down all intelligence sharing. But when Mr. Ratcliffe explained the risk facing C.I.A. officers in Ukraine, the White House allowed the agency to keep sharing intelligence about Russian threats inside Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, the agency honed a plan to at least buy time, to make it harder for the Russians to capitalize on the Ukrainians\u2019 extraordinary moment of weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One powerful tool finally employed by the Biden administration \u2014 supplying ATACMS and targeting intelligence for strikes inside Russia \u2014 had been effectively pulled from the table. But a parallel weapon had remained in place \u2014 permission for C.I.A. and military officers to share targeting intelligence and provide other assistance for Ukrainian drone strikes against crucial components of the Russian defense industrial base. These included factories manufacturing \u201cenergetics\u201d \u2014 chemicals used in explosives \u2014 as well as petroleum-industry facilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/22\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-Ratcliffe-cpwq\/00inv-partnership-trump-Ratcliffe-cpwq-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg\" alt=\"Suited men sitting at a table with the American flag in the background.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. chief, looked on during a White House meeting in July. Haiyun Jiang\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Trump administration\u2019s first months, these strikes had been scattershot with negligible impact. Ukrainian military and intelligence agencies were competing, working off different target lists. Russia\u2019s air defenses and electromagnetic jammers rendered energetics facilities virtually impenetrable. At oil refineries, drones were slamming into storage tanks, igniting blasts that grabbed headlines but accomplished little else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In June, beleaguered U.S. military officers met with their C.I.A. counterparts to help craft a more concerted Ukrainian campaign. It would focus exclusively on oil refineries and, instead of supply tanks, would target the refineries\u2019 Achilles\u2019 heel: A C.I.A. expert had identified a type of coupler that was so hard to replace or repair that a refinery would remain offline for weeks. (To avoid backlash, they would not supply weapons and other equipment that Mr. Vance\u2019s allies wanted for other priorities.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the campaign began to show results, Mr. Ratcliffe discussed it with Mr. Trump. The president seemed to listen to him; they had a frequent Sunday tee time. According to U.S. officials, Mr. Trump praised America\u2019s surreptitious role in these blows to Russia\u2019s energy industry. They gave him deniability and leverage, he told Mr. Ratcliffe, as the Russian president continued to \u201cjerk him off.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The energy strikes would come to cost the Russian economy as much as $75 million a day, according to one U.S. intelligence estimate. The C.I.A. would also be authorized to assist with&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/12\/20\/world\/europe\/russia-ukraine-oil-tanker-attacks-shadow-fleet.html\">Ukrainian drone strikes<\/a>&nbsp;on \u201cshadow fleet\u201d vessels in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Gas lines would start forming across Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe found something that is working,\u201d a senior U.S. official said, then had to add, \u201cHow long, we don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch-9-mkpj\/00inv-partnership-trump-ch-9-mkpj-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"People surround a man in a coffin covered in flowers.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Family members mourned Ihor Brozhek, a 29-year-old Ukrainian soldier, on the outskirts of Odesa in November. Mauricio Lima for The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"part-nine\">Part 9<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018We\u2019re Arguing Over the Doorknobs\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/caine.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MR. KELLOGG<\/strong>&nbsp;knew where things were heading, he told colleagues: For all the whipsaw to date and still to come, the calculus was narrowing, to a cruel apportioning of land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He had been reading a book called \u201cGuilty Men,\u201d a polemic published in anger in 1940, after Nazi Germany occupied Norway and France. The guilty men were 15 politicians whom the authors accused of failing to prepare British forces for war, of appeasing Hitler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI refuse to be a guilty man,\u201d Mr. Kellogg told a colleague.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At an Oval Office meeting, still hoping to salvage some equity in Ukraine\u2019s territorial concessions, he had offered a plan for a land swap. In this \u201ctwo-plus-two plan,\u201d Mr. Putin would withdraw from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts. Ukraine would relinquish the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The plan, Mr. Kellogg admitted, was a Hail Mary, and Mr. Trump told him, \u201cPutin probably won\u2019t go for it.\u201d Still, he directed Mr. Witkoff, \u201cGet this to Putin.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They met on Aug. 6. Mr. Putin didn\u2019t go for it; he was not about to cede territory voluntarily. But Mr. Witkoff heard what he interpreted as a breakthrough. According to a Trump adviser, the envoy reported back that Mr. Putin had told him: \u201cOK, OK, we can\u2019t figure out a cease-fire. Here\u2019s what we will do, we will do a final peace deal, and that peace deal is the balance of Donetsk.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Actually it was more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this \u201cthree-plus-two plan,\u201d the Russians would also keep Crimea and get the last sliver of Luhansk. Instead of withdrawing from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, as Mr. Kellogg had proposed, they would keep the territory they\u2019d already conquered. The plan was not the total control Mr. Putin had long demanded, but it was still far more favorable to Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Afterward, Mr. Trump hailed the meeting as \u201chighly productive\u201d and invited the Russian to Alaska.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>THE ALASKA SUMMIT<\/strong>&nbsp;would be the two presidents\u2019 first face-to-face meeting of Mr. Trump\u2019s second term, and it came freighted with memories of embarrassing summits past \u2014 especially Helsinki in 2018, where Mr. Trump brushed aside his own intelligence agencies\u2019 findings and sided with Mr. Putin, saying he saw no reason Russia would have meddled in the 2016 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suspicions that an overeager Mr. Trump might let himself be manipulated weren\u2019t assuaged by the choice of venue, which, given Alaska\u2019s historic ties to Russia, seemed designed to welcome Mr. Putin back from diplomatic exile. Announcing the summit on Aug. 8, Mr. Trump told reporters, \u201cMy instinct really tells me that we have a shot at peace.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. chief, flew to Alaska with the president on Aug. 15 and, before the meeting, briefed him on \u201cwhat we\u2019ve got\u201d about Mr. Putin\u2019s intentions. It did not align with Mr. Trump\u2019s instinct; the Russian, the agency argued, was not interested in ending the war. A senior American official described the assessment this way: \u201cTrump isn\u2019t going to get what he wants. He is just going to have to make Alaska a show.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Together at the Anchorage airfield, the two presidents commenced the show, riding side by side in \u201cthe Beast,\u201d Mr. Trump\u2019s armored vehicle, Mr. Putin grinning and waving to the cameras. Later, their meeting concluded, each made a statement, alluding vaguely to agreements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/01\/10\/multimedia\/00int-partnership-trumo-ch9-jchb\/00int-partnership-trumo-ch9-jchb-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"Shaking hands with Air Force One in the background.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, met with Mr. Trump in Anchorage in August. Doug Mills\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They took no questions, leaving the world to puzzle over just what they had agreed on. But according to two Trump advisers, Mr. Putin repeated what he had told Mr. Witkoff: He would end the war if he could get the balance of Donetsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>AND WHY NOT?<\/strong>&nbsp;As Mr. Trump saw it, according to a Trump adviser, that final third of Donetsk was just a sliver of land that \u201cnobody in America has ever heard of.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe real estate guys look at it as, \u2018OK, we\u2019ve agreed on all the other terms of the deal, but we\u2019re fighting over the trim, we\u2019re arguing over the doorknobs,\u2019\u201d another adviser said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When Mr. Zelensky and seven European leaders descended on Washington three days after Alaska, their mission was the education of Mr. Trump, making him see that one-third meant so much more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crowded into the Oval Office, they explained that pulling forces out of Donetsk would put the Russians in a position to threaten some of Ukraine\u2019s largest cities \u2014 Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa and Kyiv. From Donetsk, a Trump adviser said, \u201cit\u2019s like a long cow field to Kyiv.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From the first, key to Mr. Trump\u2019s negotiating position had been the assumption of Russian battlefield strength and Ukrainian weakness. If Mr. Zelensky didn\u2019t surrender that sliver of land, the Russians would simply take it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now he reiterated that argument, and Mr. Kellogg broke in: \u201cSir, that\u2019s bullshit. The Russians aren\u2019t invincible.\u201d The Joint Chiefs chairman, General Caine, seconded that: Russian forces, he said, were weak and incompetent. Yes, Pokrovsk might fall. But as U.S. intelligence agencies assessed at the time, the Russians would need up to 30 months to capture that entire slice of Donetsk. (In December, they would cut that timeline to 20 months or less; some White House advisers put it as low as eight.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But this would not be a replay of the Oval Office blowup of nearly six months before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump would remark to aides that when he owned the Miss Universe pageant, the Ukrainian contestants were often the most beautiful. Now, he blurted out, \u201cUkrainian women are beautiful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI know, I married one,\u201d Mr. Zelensky responded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump explained that an old friend, the Las Vegas mogul Phil Ruffin, had married a former Miss Ukraine, Oleksandra Nikolayenko; the president had met her through the Miss Universe pageant. Now, he called Mr. Ruffin, who put his wife on the phone. Mr. Trump did the same for Mr. Zelensky, and for the next 10 to 15 minutes, the room went on pause as the two spoke in Ukrainian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ms. Nikolayenko talked about her family, still in Odesa. \u201cHe was surprised they didn\u2019t leave,\u201d she recalled of Mr. Zelensky. \u201cMy father wouldn\u2019t leave. He\u2019s an old-school officer. And he believes that if he leaves, there will be nothing to come back to. He wants to be with his home, with his land, with his country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYou could feel the room change,\u201d said an official who was there. \u201cThe temperature dropped. Everyone laughed. What it did was create a human connection. It was kind of a mind meld. It humanized Zelensky with Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/22\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-zelensky3-lfqv\/00inv-partnership-trump-zelensky3-lfqv-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"Mr. Trump with arm around Mr. Zelensky.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky at the White House in August. Kenny Holston\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A month later, in New York for the opening of the United Nations General Assembly, Mr. Trump called Mr. Zelensky \u201ca great man\u201d who was \u201cputting up a hell of a fight.\u201d Later, on Truth Social, he wrote that after coming to understand \u201cthe Ukraine\/Russia Military and Economic situation,\u201d he believed that \u201cUkraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even most of the president\u2019s top advisers were startled by what seemed like an abrupt about-face. But according to one adviser, he was trying to shock the Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MR. TRUMP SPOKE<\/strong>&nbsp;to Mr. Putin on Oct. 16 \u2014 their first conversation since Alaska. In New York, Mr. Zelensky had sold Mr. Trump on Ukraine\u2019s recent progress on the battlefield. Now Mr. Putin spun that narrative on its head, and Mr. Trump turned back to his default: Russia was winning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Kellogg had repeatedly told the president and his aides that it would be morally wrong to ask Mr. Zelensky to surrender those doorknobs of Donetsk. Mr. Putin couldn\u2019t be trusted to abide by the deal, he said; all of Ukraine would be in peril. From the first, he had urged the president \u201cto take more risk with Putin,\u201d to increase pressure through sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump was scheduled to meet Mr. Zelensky at the White House on the 17th. But while Mr. Kellogg was still the Ukraine envoy, at least on paper, he was not on the invitation list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He had been in the Oval Office back in August, during Mr. Zelensky\u2019s moment of rapprochement with Mr. Trump. At one point, the Ukrainian had walked over to a large map of Crimea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump had long accused former President Barack Obama of letting Russia take the peninsula away from Ukraine in 2014. \u201cFor eight years Russia \u2018ran over\u2019 President Obama, got stronger and stronger, picked-off Crimea and added missiles. Weak!\u201d he posted on Twitter in 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, the president asked Mr. Zelensky, \u201cHow many soldiers did you lose?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cNone,\u201d the Ukrainian replied. (The number was actually one, possibly two.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When Mr. Trump asked why, he said, \u201cWe didn\u2019t fight.\u201d And when Mr. Trump asked why, he responded, \u201cYou told us not to.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, in pursuit of his prize, Mr. Trump was poised to tell Mr. Zelensky not only to give up the territory that the Russians had conquered since their full-scale invasion, but to give up precious territory that the Russians had yet to conquer. He wouldn\u2019t just be telling the Ukrainians not to fight. He would be telling them to give up what, for more than a decade, they had been fighting and dying for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The night before the October Zelensky meeting, the president reached out to Mr. Kellogg and asked him to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next day, Mr. Trump and his aides did indeed press Mr. Zelensky to give up the rest of Donetsk. The Ukrainian pushed back, hard. Quietly Mr. Witkoff signaled to Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian\u2019s top adviser, and they stepped outside. \u201cYou\u2019ve got to cool him down,\u201d Mr. Witkoff told him. \u201cThis is going bad.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back inside, Mr. Yermak looked toward Mr. Umerov, and said, \u201cPresident Zelensky, let Rustem speak.\u201d Mr. Zelensky turned off his mic, and Mr. Umerov pulled the leaders back from the brink.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Afterward, Mr. Kellogg told the president that he had been unable to attend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHe wanted me there to put pressure on Zelensky,\u201d he told a colleague, \u201cand I didn\u2019t want to do that.\u201d (He later told the White House that he would be leaving the job at the end of the year.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/10\/23\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-epilogue\/00inv-partnership-trump-epilogue-mobileMasterAt3x-v3.jpg\" alt=\"A cyclist passing rubble and damaged buildings.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>A destroyed building in Druzhkivka, a city in the Donetsk region that has faced daily bombing attacks. Tyler Hicks\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"part-ten\">Part 10<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Dash for a Deal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2025-02-21-inv-wiesbaden\/5e6d9191-5354-46cb-87e4-c7cfa6411caa\/_assets\/driscoll.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>WHAT FOLLOWED WAS<\/strong>&nbsp;a frantic two-and-a-half-month whirlwind of diplomacy \u2014 all in the service of getting one man to cross his hardest red line and the other to budge from his intractable demands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Witkoff called Mr. Ushakov, the close Putin aide, on Oct. 14. Just days earlier, Mr. Trump had announced an agreement, brokered by Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner, to end the fighting in Gaza. Now the envoy pitched the Russian on pursuing a similar agreement for Ukraine. Front-channel, back-channel tension flared again, this time in the episode of the letter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In New York in September, according to three American officials, Mr. Lavrov had told Mr. Rubio that he believed Mr. Trump had made a commitment in Alaska to force Mr. Zelensky to give up the balance of Donetsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, U.S. officials learned, Mr. Lavrov had the Russian embassy in Washington send Mr. Rubio a letter demanding that Mr. Trump publicly acknowledge that. (U.S. officials say that while Mr. Trump responded positively to Mr. Putin\u2019s proposal in Alaska to end the war for Donetsk, he made no commitment to force it on Mr. Zelensky.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump and his advisers were perturbed. They were told that Mr. Putin had not authorized the letter; they saw it as a Lavrov power play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ON OCT. 22<\/strong>, amid these tensions, Mr. Trump did what he had long been reluctant to do lest Mr. Putin simply walk away: He directed the Treasury Department to impose sanctions on Russia\u2019s two largest oil companies. The president, one adviser explained, \u201cwas making a statement to Russia: \u2018Don\u2019t screw with me.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Putin did not walk away. He would exclude Mr. Lavrov from a high-level meeting in Moscow, and he dispatched Mr. Dmitriev to meet with Mr. Witkoff in Miami Beach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner had already begun drafting what would become a 28-point peace proposal. Over the last weekend of October, they huddled with Mr. Dmitriev in the den of Mr. Witkoff\u2019s waterfront home, the Russian suggesting language for some points, Mr. Kushner typing them into his laptop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In mid-November, Mr. Umerov, the Ukrainian negotiator, took his turn in Mr. Witkoff\u2019s den, and he, too, suggested language that Mr. Kushner added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The resulting document contained many provisions favorable to the Russians. But in several significant ways, it was less favorable than earlier American proposals \u2014 and less so than widely perceived.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/06\/15\/world\/europe\/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html\">earlier talks<\/a>, the Russians had demanded that the Ukrainians agree to drastically cut the size of their military. This plan said the Ukrainian military could have up to 600,000 soldiers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/31\/multimedia\/31inv-partnership-trump-witkoff-jqkf\/31inv-partnership-trump-witkoff-jqkf-mobileMasterAt3x-v2.jpg\" alt=\"Men in suits leaving the carved doors of a state room.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>A photograph released by Russian state media showing Steve Witkoff, U.S. special envoy, with Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia\u2019s sovereign wealth fund, at a Kremlin meeting with Mr. Putin in December. Kristina Kormilitsyna\/Sputnik<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another point read, \u201cCrimea, Luhansk and Donetsk to be recognized De-Facto as Russian, including by the United States.\u201d What this meant was that the U.S. government would accept in practice that Russia controlled these areas; in previous discussions, the Americans had told the Russians they would be prepared to legally recognize those areas as part of Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The document also contained U.S. security guarantees that included \u201ca robust coordinated military response\u201d if Russia mounted a new invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And yet the biggest, most impossible hurdle for the Ukrainians remained, rendered in a sub-point\u2019s diplomatese: \u201cUkrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk region that they currently control, and this withdrawal area will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ON NOV. 19<\/strong>, the Army secretary, Daniel P. Driscoll, traveled to Kyiv. Some months earlier, the Ukrainians had mounted a spectacular sneak attack, Operation Spider\u2019s Web, in which $100,000 worth of drones took out almost $10 billion worth of Russian military aircraft. The U.S. military had much to learn from Ukraine\u2019s advances in drone technology; Mr. Driscoll was to visit some manufacturing plants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Driscoll is a Vance confidant, and now the vice president and Mr. Rubio conscripted him for another mission \u2014 to pressure the Ukrainians to accept the peace plan. The moment, they felt, seemed ripe: The Russians were advancing in Pokrovsk, and Mr. Zelensky was reeling from a corruption scandal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They gave Mr. Driscoll his marching orders: Make it clear that America can no longer afford to supply Ukraine, that Mr. Trump has other priorities for those munitions \u2014 in Asia, in the Middle East and in Latin America. Make it clear that, absent a deal, Ukraine will have to fight on without American support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Driscoll delivered this uncompromising message with certain sweeteners and a dose of empathy, according to Ukrainian and American officials who described the meetings with Mr. Zelensky and his aides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Make a deal now, Mr. Driscoll told the Ukrainians, and the U.S. military will help create a network of physical barriers and weapons systems to deter the Russians from trying to gobble up more land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/23\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-driscoll-bpzj\/00inv-partnership-trump-driscoll-bpzj-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg\" alt=\"Two men at a round table in a blue-and-gold room.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Mr. Zelensky met with Daniel Driscoll, the U.S. Army secretary, in Kyiv in November. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There would be a similar upside for postwar reconstruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But refuse to make a deal now, and none of that will happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe love you guys. What you\u2019ve done is remarkable,\u201d Mr. Driscoll told them. \u201cBut we\u2019re not going to be able to continue to supply you, and Europe looks the same way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Ukrainians shot back, \u201cLook, the Russians are paying a high price\u201d in battlefield casualties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSure they are, but they\u2019re willing to pay it,\u201d Mr. Driscoll responded. Yet, \u201call the time that goes by, you\u2019re losing more and more territory. So what are you waiting for?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s just the way it is,\u201d Mr. Driscoll summed up. \u201cI\u2019ve got to be totally honest with you.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This was certainly not what the Ukrainians wanted to hear. But this was what it had come to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThank you for the honesty,\u201d Mr. Umerov replied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A few days later, in Geneva to discuss further refinements of the plan, including increasing the cap on the Ukrainian military to 800,000, Mr. Witkoff delivered what sounded like a different message.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe are not leaving you,\u201d he told Mr. Umerov in front of Mr. Driscoll. \u201cWe are not asking you to make a decision that you are uncomfortable with or that feels to you like it\u2019s not good for your country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By now, the Ukrainians were accustomed to the contradictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As one Ukrainian official put it: \u201cActually, Driscoll and Witkoff were telling us the same thing: \u2018We are serious. We want you to understand that we want this round of negotiations to have a result, and we want this deal to be fast.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>AT LEAST 83 TIMES<\/strong>&nbsp;before Election Day, Mr. Trump promised that he could end the war in a day, even before taking office. \u201cThat\u2019s easy compared to some of the things,\u201d he said in Washington in June 2023. \u201cI\u2019d get that done in 24 hours.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Sunday, the president spoke with Mr. Putin by phone and then met with Mr. Zelensky at Mar-a-Lago. At a news conference afterward, Mr. Trump and the Ukrainian touted their progress. They were fully in accord on America\u2019s security guarantees, Mr. Zelensky said; the prosperity plan was being finalized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And what of Donetsk? \u201cThat\u2019s an issue they have to iron out,\u201d Mr. Trump said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He continued: \u201cThere are one or two very thorny issues, very tough issues. But I think we\u2019re doing very well. We made a lot of progress today. But really we\u2019ve made it over the last month. This is not a one-day process deal. This is very complicated stuff.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/18\/multimedia\/00inv-partnership-trump-ender-fhvm\/00inv-partnership-trump-ender-fhvm-mobileMasterAt3x-v3.jpg\" alt=\"A man\u2019s silhouette against a blue-and-gold horizon.\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Tyler Hicks\/The New York Times<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Julie Tate and Oleksandr Chubko contributed research. Produced by Gray Beltran, Kenan Davis, Mikko Takkunen, Rumsey Taylor and Daniel Wood. Top photographs by Kenny Holston\/The New York Times and Tyler Hicks\/The New York Times. Top map by Daniel Wood\/The New York Times. Source for the top map: The Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute\u2019s Critical Threats Project (Russian territorial control as of Feb. 19, 2025).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>. . .<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>THE DAWN OF THE AI DRONE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the past year, drone warfare in Ukraine has undergone a chilling transformation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most drones require a human pilot. But some new Ukrainian drones, once locked on a target, can use A.I. to chase and strike it \u2014 with no further human involvement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the story of how the battlefield became the birthplace of a powerful new weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/c-j-chivers\">C.J. Chivers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This story was reported over the course of 18 months and multiple trips to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dec. 31, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On a warm morning a few months ago, Lipa, a Ukrainian drone pilot, flew a small gray quadcopter over the ravaged fields near Borysivka, a tiny occupied village abutting the Russian border. A surveillance drone had spotted signs that an enemy drone team had moved into abandoned warehouses at the village\u2019s edge. Lipa and his navigator, Bober, intended to kill the team or drive it off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another pilot had twice tried hitting the place with standard kamikaze quadcopters, which are susceptible to radio-wave jamming that can disrupt the communication link between pilot and drone, causing weapons to crash. Russian jammers stopped them. Lipa had been assigned the third try but this time with a Bumblebee, an unusual drone provided by a secretive venture led by Eric Schmidt, the former chief executive of Google and one of the world\u2019s wealthiest men.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bober sat beside Lipa as he oriented for an attack run. From high over Borysivka, one of the Bumblebee\u2019s two airborne cameras focused on a particular building\u2019s eastern side. Bober checked the imagery, then a digital map, and agreed: They had found the target. \u201cLocked in,\u201d Lipa said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With his right hand, Lipa toggled a switch, unleashing the drone from human control. Powered by artificial intelligence, the Bumblebee swept down without further external guidance. As it descended, it lost signal connection with Lipa and Bober. This did not matter: It continued its attack free of their command. Its sensors and software remained focused on the building and adjusted heading and speed independently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another drone livestreamed the result: The Bumblebee smacked into an exterior wall and exploded. Whether Russian soldiers were harmed was unclear, but a semiautonomous drone had hit where human-piloted drones missed, rendering the position untenable. \u201cThey will change their location now,\u201d Lipa said. (Per Ukrainian security rules, soldiers are referred to by their first name or call sign.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Throughout 2025 in the war between Russia and Ukraine, in largely unseen and unheralded moments like the warehouse strike in Borysivka, the era of killer robots has begun to take shape on the battlefield. Across the roughly 800-mile front and over the airspace of both nations, drones with newly developed autonomous features are now in daily combat use. By last spring, Bumblebees launched from Ukrainian positions had carried out more than 1,000 combat flights against Russian targets, according to a manufacturer\u2019s pamphlet extolling the weapon\u2019s capabilities. Pilots say they have flown thousands more since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bumblebee\u2019s introduction raised immediate alarms in the Kremlin\u2019s military circles, according to two Russian technical intelligence reports. One, based on dissection of a damaged Bumblebee collected along the front, described a mystery drone with chipsets and a motherboard \u201cof the highest quality, matching the level of the world\u2019s leading microelectronics manufacturers.\u201d The report noted the sort of deficiencies expected of a prototype but ended with an ominous forecast: \u201cDespite current limitations,\u201d it declared, \u201cthe technology will demonstrate its effectiveness\u201d and its range of uses \u201cwill continue to expand.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That conclusion was prescient but understated, for the simple reason that Bumblebees hardly fly alone. Under the pressures of invasion, Ukraine has become a fast-feedback, live-fire test range in which arms manufacturers, governments, venture capitalists, frontline units and coders and engineers from around the West collaborate to produce weapons that automate parts of the conventional military kill chain. Equipped with onboard proprietary software trained on large data sets, and often run on off-the-shelf microcomputers like Raspberry Pi, drones with autonomous capabilities are now part of the war\u2019s bloody and destructive routine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In repeated visits to arms manufacturers, test ranges and frontline units over 18 months, I observed their development firsthand. Functions now performed autonomously include: pilotless takeoff or hovering, geolocation, navigation to areas of attack, as well as target recognition, tracking and pursuit \u2014 up to and including terminal strike, the lethal endpoint of the journey. Software designers have also networked multiple drones into a shared app that allows for flight control to be passed between human pilots or for drones to be organized into tightly sequenced attacks \u2014 a step toward computer-managed swarms. Weapons with these capabilities are in the hands of ground brigades as well as air defense, intelligence and deep-strike units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/01\/25\/magazine\/25mag-aidrones\/25mag-aidrones-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"Three small military attack drones sit on a patch of dirt with a splash of sunlight highlighting the middle of the frame.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Bumblebee attack drones at a combat testing range outside Kharkiv, Ukraine.Credit&#8230;Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Drones under full human control remain far more abundant than their semiautonomous siblings. They cause most battlefield wounds. But unmanned weapons are crossing into a new frontier. And while no publicly known drone in the war automates all steps of a combat mission into a single weapon, some designers have put sequential steps under the control of artificial intelligence. \u201cAny tactical equation that has a person in it could have A.I.,\u201d said the founder of X-Drone, a Ukrainian company that has trained software for drones to hunt for and identify a stationary target, like an oil-storage tank, and then hit it without a pilot at the controls. (The founder asked that his name be withheld for security reasons.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Kremlin\u2019s forces are also adopting A.I.-enhanced weapons, according to examinations of downed Russian drones by Conflict Armament Research, a private arms-investigation firm. With both sides investing, Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine\u2019s first deputy prime minister, said A.I.-powered drones are at the center of a new arms race. Ukraine\u2019s defenders must field them in large numbers quickly, he said, or risk defeat. \u201cWe are trying to stimulate development of every stage of autonomy,\u201d he said. \u201cWe need to develop and buy more autonomous drones.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be sure, the familiar weapons of modern battlefields, all under human control, have caused immeasurable harm to generations of soldiers and civilians. Even weapons celebrated by generals and pundits as astonishingly precise, like GPS-guided missiles or laser-guided bombs, have often struck the wrong places, killing innocents, often without accountability. No golden age is being left behind. Rather, semiautonomous drones compound existing perils and present new threats. Peter Asaro, vice chair of the Stop Killer Robots Campaign and a philosopher and an associate professor at the New School, warned of rising dangers as weapons enter unmapped practical and ethical terrain. \u201cThe development of increasing autonomy in drones raises serious questions about human rights and the protection of civilians in armed conflict,\u201d he said. \u201cThe capacity to autonomously select targets is a moral line that should not be crossed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The concept of a killer robot is vague and prone to hype, invoking T-800 of \u201cThe Terminator,\u201d an adaptive mobile killing machine deployed by an artificial superintelligence, Skynet, that perceives humanity as a threat. Nothing close exists in Ukraine. \u201cEverybody thinks, Oh, you are making Skynet,\u201d said a captain responsible for integrating new technology into the 13th Khartia Brigade of Ukraine\u2019s National Guard, one of the country\u2019s most sophisticated units, in which Lipa and Bober serve. \u201cNo, the technology is interesting. But it\u2019s a first step and there are many more steps.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The captain and other technicians working with A.I.-enhanced weapons said they tend to be brittle, limited in function and less accurate than weapons under skilled human control. Many have a short battery life and brief flight times. Autonomous weapons with sustained endurance, high flexibility and the ability to discern, identify, rank and pursue multiple categories of targets independent of human action have yet to appear, and they would require, the captain said, \u201ca waterfall of money\u201d plus much imagination and time. \u201cIt\u2019s like the staircase of the Empire State Building,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s how many steps there are, and we are inside the building but only on the first floor.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a safeguard against A.I.-powered weapons slipping the leash, humanitarians and many technologists have long advocated keeping \u201chumans in the loop,\u201d shorthand for preventing weapons from making homicidal decisions alone. By this thinking, a trained human must assess and approve all targets, as Lipa and Bober did, ideally with the power to abort an individual strike and a kill switch to shut an entire system down. Strong guardrails, the argument goes, are necessary for accountability, compliance with laws of armed conflict, legitimacy around military action and, ultimately, for human security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Schmidt has emphasized the necessity of human oversight. But at the end of a flight, some semiautonomous weapons in Ukraine can already identify targets without human involvement, and many Ukrainian-made systems with human override are inexpensive and could be copied and modified by talented coders anywhere. Some of those designing A.I.-enhanced weapons, who consider their development necessary for Ukraine\u2019s defense, confess to unease about the technology that they themselves conjure to form. \u201cI think we created the monster,\u201d said Nazar Bigun, a young physicist writing terminal-attack software. \u201cAnd I\u2019m not sure where it\u2019s going to go.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"link-3c79b220\">The Dawn of Autonomous Attack<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bigun\u2019s own journey exemplifies how the duration and particulars of the war incentivized the creation of semiautonomous weapons. When Russia rolled mechanized divisions over Ukraine\u2019s border in 2022, Bigun was leading a team of software engineers at a German tech start-up. In early 2023, he founded a volunteer initiative for the military that eventually manufactured 200 first-person-view (F.P.V.) quadcopters a month. It was a significant contribution to Ukraine\u2019s war effort at a time when low-cost and explosive-laden hobbyist drones, not yet widely recognized as the transformative weapons they are, remained in short supply. His focus might have remained there. But as he and his peers heard from frontline drone pilots, they became concerned about declining success rates of kamikaze drones in the face of defensive adaptations, and they joined the search for solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The problems were many. As more drones took flight, both sides developed physical and electronic countermeasures. Soldiers erected poles and strung mesh to snag drones from the air, and they covered the turrets and hulls of military vehicles with protective netting, grates or welded cages. Among the most frustrating countermeasures were jammers that flooded the operating frequencies used for flight control and video links, generating electronic noise that reduced signal clarity in pilot-to-drone connections. The systems became standard around high-value targets, including command bunkers and artillery positions. They also appeared on expensive mobile equipment, like air-defense systems, multiple-rocket launchers and tanks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/01\/25\/magazine\/25mag-aidrones-03\/25mag-aidrones-03-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"The rear side of a military vehicle driving down a road covered with protective netting, with fields on either side of it.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A Ukrainian military vehicle traveling under a web of netting meant to protect against drone attacks near the frontline city Pokrovsk.Credit&#8230;Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This complex puzzle led to the creation of drones that fly on fiber-optic cables, one solution that has appeared on the battlefield. It also fueled Bigun\u2019s interest in a form of computer-enabled attack, known as last-mile autonomous targeting, in which computer vision and autonomous flight control would guide drones through the final stage of attack without radio-signal inputs from a pilot. Such systems promised another benefit as well: They would increase the efficacy of strikes at longer range and over the radio horizon, when terrain or the Earth\u2019s curvature interfere with a steady radio signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In theory, the technical remedy was simple. When pilots anticipated a break in communications, they could pass flight control to an automated substitute \u2014 a powerful chipset and extensively trained software \u2014 that would complete the mission. With this tech coupled to onboard sensors and a camera, the pilot could lock the mini-aircraft on a target and release the drone to strike alone. The company Bigun co-founded in 2024, NORDA Dynamics, did not manufacture drones, so it set to work creating an aftermarket component to attach to other manufacturers\u2019 weapons. With it, a pilot would still fly the drone from launch until it neared a target. Then the pilot would have the option of autonomous attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boosted by funding from the Ukrainian government and venture capital firms, NORDA spent much of 2024 testing a prototype that evolved into its flagship offering, Underdog, a small module that fastens to a combat drone. When flying an Underdog-equipped quadcopter, a pilot with F.P.V. goggles still controls the weapon from takeoff almost to destination. But in a flight\u2019s final phase, the pilot has the choice \u2014 via an onscreen window that zooms in on objects of interest, like a building or car \u2014 of approving an autonomous attack in a process called pixel lock. At that moment, Underdog takes over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Underdog began with tests on stationary objects, but after repeated updates, its software chased moving quarry. Range extended, too. Early modules allowed 400 meters of terminal attack; by summer 2025, with the fifth version of NORDA\u2019s software, pixel lock reached 2,000 meters \u2014 about 1.25 miles. By then the modules had been distributed to collaborating F.P.V. teams at the front. \u201cWe have some very good feedback,\u201d Bigun said. A company bulletin board listed early hits, among them Russian artillery pieces, trucks, mobile radar units and a tank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/01\/25\/magazine\/25mag-aidrones-04\/25mag-aidrones-04-articleLarge-v2.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"Several men and women and a dog sit on folding chairs in a wooded area talking.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nazar Bigun (center), co-founder and chief executive of the Ukrainian defense-tech start-up NORDA Dynamics, with colleagues on lunch break from a nearby arms expo.Credit&#8230;Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>One summer afternoon in western Ukraine, Bigun and several employees arrived at a tree line of wild pear, apple and plum dividing agriculture fields. Cows meandered past, swishing tails to shoo flies. Two white storks glided to the ground, alighted and picked their way through the furrows, hunting. NORDA\u2019s technicians sent a black S.U.V. with a driver and two-way radio to drive along the fields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A test pilot, Janusz, a Polish citizen who had volunteered as a combat medic in Ukraine before joining the company, sat in the van wearing goggles and holding a hand-held radio controller. Once the S.U.V. drove away, he commanded an unarmed F.P.V. drone through liftoff. \u201cI\u2019m flying,\u201d he said over the radio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The video feed showed golden fields and green windbreaks, overlaid with dirt roads. The drone climbed to about 200 feet. Its camera revealed the black S.U.V. less than a mile away. Onscreen, Janusz slipped a square-shaped white cursor over the image of the vehicle. A pop-up window appeared in the upper-left corner containing a stabilized close-up of the S.U.V. With his left hand, Janusz selected pixel lock. The word \u201cENGAGE\u201d appeared within a red banner onscreen. Thin black cross-hairs settled on the center of the S.U.V.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Janusz lifted his hands from the controller. From an altitude of about 215 feet, the drone entered a slow dive. Within seconds it had flown almost to the moving S.U.V.\u2019s windshield. Janusz switched back to human piloting and banked the quadcopter away, sparing the vehicle damage from impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At his command, the drone climbed, spun around and resumed pursuit, this time from more than 500 feet up. Its prey bounded along a road. Janusz lined up the cursor and engaged pixel lock again. The drone entered a second independent dive, accelerating toward the fleeing car. Once more Janusz overrode the software at the last moment. The quadcopter buzzed so closely that the whine of its engines was picked up by the vehicle\u2019s two-way radio and broadcast inside the pilot\u2019s van. Janusz smiled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He swung the drone around, showing the van he sat in. The cursor briefly presented the possibility of pixel lock on himself. Janusz chuckled and steered the weapon away, back toward the S.U.V. The driver\u2019s voice crackled over the radio. \u201cWe will right now make a turn,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the next half-hour, the driver\u2019s maneuvers made no difference. No matter what he did, the drone, once pixel-locked, closed the distance autonomously, harassing the moving vehicle with the tenacity of an obsessed bird.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Compared with conditions common in war, the field exercise was simple. Groundspeeds were slow, flights were by daylight, no power lines or tree branches blocked the way. The drone maintained a constant line of sight with the S.U.V., and the software had to lock on a lone vehicle, not on a target weaving through traffic or passing parked cars. But with more training and computational power, the software could be improved to discern and prioritize military targets based on replacement cost or degree of menace, or fine-tuned to strike armored vehicles in vulnerable places, like exhaust grates or where turrets meet hulls. It might be trained to hunt most anything at all \u2014 a bus, a parked aircraft, a lectern where a speaker is addressing an audience, a step-down electrical transformer distributing power to a grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/01\/15\/magazine\/15mag-aidrone-1\/15mag-aidrone-1-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"A masked man in a T-shirt and shorts stands in a green field under a blue sky holding an airplane-shaped drone above his head.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">An employee from NORDA Dynamics launching a Dart-2 fixed-wing strike drone for engineers to fine-tune their automated flight software.&nbsp;Credit&#8230;Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For Bigun, the natural worry that such technology could be turned against civilians has been overridden by the imperatives of survival. Beyond coding, his work involves interacting with arms designers from Ukraine and the West, including at weapons expositions, where he seeks partners and clients. But he often visits the Field of Mars, a cemetery in Lviv that is a repository of solemn memory and raw pain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bigun\u2019s great-uncle was a Ukrainian nationalist during the totalitarian rule of Stalin. For this, Bigun\u2019s grandfather was deemed an enemy of the state by association, and shipped to Siberia at age 16. Both men are buried on the grounds, where they have been joined by a procession of soldiers killed since the full invasion. On an evening following one of Bigun\u2019s arms-show appearances, mourners at the field sanded tall wooden crucifixes by hand, then reapplied lacquer; a widow sat beside a grave talking to her lost husband as if he were sipping tea in an opposite chair; a family formed a semicircle around a plot covered in flowers with each member taking turns catching up a deceased soldier on household news. The field reached full capacity in December \u2014 almost 1,300 graves \u2014 prompting Lviv to open a second cemetery for its continuing flow of war dead. Just before Christmas, the second field held 14 fresh mounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bigun abhors the need for these places. But beside commemorations of friends snatched early from life by the war, he said, he finds inspiration to continue his work. \u201cThis is where I feel the price we pay,\u201d he said, \u201cand it motivates me to move forward.\u201d By the end of the year, NORDA Dynamics had provided frontline units fighting in the East more than 50,000 Underdog modules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"link-c1167bc\">The Rise of the Swarm<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Ukrainian military\u2019s hard pivot to drone warfare helped save the nation. For almost four years, while fielding the world\u2019s first armed force to reorganize around unmanned weapons, it blunted the ground assaults of Russia\u2019s far larger military. It continues to do so even as the Kremlin replenishes its thinned divisions, drawing from oil-state revenue and a population at least four times the size of Ukraine\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the weapon has a limit. Almost all short-range kamikaze drones \u2014 a primary means of stopping advancing Russian soldiers \u2014 are flown by individual pilots, one at a time. Each is a vicious aerial acrobat: From airspeeds up to 70 miles an hour, small multicopters can stop, hover, turn and fly off in new directions for minutes on end, traits empowering pilots to find, chase and kill their human victims with chilling efficacy. And yet during sustained Russian attacks, typical frontline conditions can force drone teams to fight slowly. The pace is set by the duration between each drone\u2019s launch and final approach, which at common standoff distances often stretches past 20 minutes. When Russian soldiers infiltrate in large numbers, single-drone strike sequences can feel slow and insufficient. Between sorties, enemies escape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given the enduring challenge of massing drone firepower, designers of autonomous combat-drone technology have sought to assemble drones into swarms, the allure of which is obvious to a nation under attack. Even small swarms would allow pilots to concentrate multiple weapons in punishing rapid-fire strikes, stiffening defenses and raising the prospect of overwhelming machine-only attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not long after Janusz\u2019s terminal-attack flights, technicians from another Ukrainian company, Sine Engineering, gathered near a rural village to train drone pilots on its entrant to the swarm-tech field, called Pasika, the Ukrainian word for apiary. The heart of Pasika\u2019s hardware is its radio modems \u2014 small frequency-hopping transceivers that act as beacons for flying drones. In flight, each quadcopter\u2019s altitude and location update several times a second by measuring the differences in arrival times of radio signals from several known positions. Pasika software also provides automated flight control. At its current stage of development, a sole pilot can manage dozens of drones through autonomous launch, navigation and hovering \u2014 a pre-attack phase during which massed drones loiter pending instructions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During a multiday training session for quadcopter teams fresh from frontline duty, Pavlo, a former infantryman who serves as Sine Engineering\u2019s liaison to combat brigades, coached pilots as they practiced. The tech was futuristic but the scene was characteristically rural Ukrainian. The test range, hectares of hayfield and sunflower, was not secured behind fences or watched over by control towers. The students, including pilots from Kraken 1654 Unmanned Systems Regiment of the Third Army Corps and Samosud Team, a drone unit of the 11th National Guard Brigade, worked in casual clothes and colorful T-shirts, eating artisanal pizzas as they tinkered. A small horse stood tethered to a stake beside a wooden cart, chewing grass into a flat circle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Via an app, the pilots took turns ordering drones to launch and navigate to a point on the map. Unaided by human hand, quadcopters rose in the air and sped off over the countryside to loiter together about a mile away. Tablet screens revealed their progress. A video feed from each quadcopter showed rolling cropland below. The pilots kept their hands off the controls. A rusty tractor puttered past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/01\/25\/magazine\/25mag-aidrones-08\/25mag-aidrones-08-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"Three men sit with their backs to the camera at a folding plastic table covered with computers, monitors and drone remote controls in a green field.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Soldiers attending training with Sine Engineering, a Ukrainian defense-tech company. Sine\u2019s product, Pasika, lets a single operator manage several drones at a time, hitting targets in quick-succession \u201cswarm attacks.\u201dCredit&#8230;Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For a final exercise, a pilot with the call sign Kara directed her team to gather two drones autonomously over an opposite field. Another team flew three more. Once the drones reached their loitering point, Kara said, pilots would take control and fly them manually toward targets to practice a massed attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pasika also allows pilots on the app to exchange control of individual drones among themselves. In this way, any pilot could use them to attack across a short distance with brief intervals between strikes. The concept could be extended further. With Pasika or a similar system, quadcopters stockpiled in boxes near a front could be commanded by a sole operator, whether A.I. or human, creating a dense swarm of drones to face ground attacks without delay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Multiplying a sole soldier\u2019s combat power in these ways made sense to Kara, whose brother, husband and husband\u2019s twin brother all rose to resist the Russian invasion. Ukraine grants humanitarian discharges to siblings of service members killed in action, and when her brother-in-law was killed, her husband transferred to the reserve. Upon his return home, Kara enlisted and became a drone pilot. Her call sign means retribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pavlo, too, had his motivations. In summer 2022, he was almost killed by conventional military incompetence when his commander gathered more than 300 soldiers in buildings in Apostolove, a city north of Crimea. Dense public garrisoning offers rich targets for long-range weapons, which arrived as a barrage of S-300 missiles. Pavlo was inside a middle school when the first missile exploded in the yard. He huddled with others under a stairwell. The next missile hit the school squarely, leaving him pinned under rubble as yet another roared in and exploded. At least four peers in the stairwell died. Pavlo suffered burns on his head, torso and arms. After convalescing, he trained as a drone pilot and began flying reconnaissance missions behind Russian lines. Experience told him Ukraine needed high-tech solutions to secure its future. \u201cIt woke something in me,\u201d he said, of nearly dying because of an old-school infantry commander\u2019s lazy mistake. \u201cAn instinct for survival on a more sophisticated level.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"link-3c0b63b5\">Can A.I. Replace GPS?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In late 2023, Brian Streem, the founder of a niche drone-cinematography business, was meeting with a Latvian company about putting a visual navigation system on long-range drones when one of his hosts suggested he bring his ideas to Ukraine. Deep-strike drones, essentially slow-flying cruise missiles that can travel hundreds of miles, require precise navigation to move through foreign airspace for hours, and to follow zigzag routes that change altitude frequently to evade air defenses. Ukraine had high hopes for its growing deep-strike arsenal to target Russian fuel and arms depots. But Russia had shut down GPS over the front and its western territory. Vaunted GPS-reliant systems were failing. The Latvian company thought Streem had a solution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Streem was new to the arms business, and his journey had been anything but direct. A native of Bayside, Queens, he graduated from New York University\u2019s Tisch School of the Arts in 2010 and started producing independent films and commercials. His work indulged a fascination for difficult photographic challenges, which led him to drones and the creation of a company, Aerobo, that shot aerial footage for music videos and Hollywood productions, including \u201cA Quiet Place,\u201d \u201cSpider-Man: Homecoming\u201d and \u201cTrue Detective.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/01\/25\/magazine\/25mag-aidrones-06\/25mag-aidrones-06-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"A man with glasses and a rumpled khaki shirt stands in front of a bulletin board covered with posted notes looking off-camera.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Brian Streem, the founder of Vermeer, a company that develops visual positioning systems (V.P.S.) that enable drones to navigate without GPS assistance.Credit&#8230;Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Aerobo\u2019s services were in demand. Streem might easily have settled in, but he found working in Hollywood to be stressful and sometimes stultifying. Every shoot had to be both technically perfect and aesthetically pleasing, even beautiful. \u201cIf you think military drone missions are hard,\u201d he says, \u201ctry making Steven Spielberg happy.\u201d Moreover, the available tech, though expensive, felt janky and resistant to graceful use. Quadcopters were just beginning to enter markets, and the larger drones Aerobo flew required at least two people \u2014 a pilot controlling the airframe and an operator moving a camera system on a gimbal, \u201cin this kind of dance,\u201d Streem said. Frustrated with the equipment and unsure how to scale up his business, he shuttered Aerobo in 2018, renamed the company Vermeer and started developing software to make drone cinematography more intuitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Revenue dried up. In 2019, feeling desperate, he attended an investor speed-dating seminar in Buffalo and sat across from Warren Katz, an entrepreneur who directed a U.S. Air Force start-up accelerator that funded military tech. Streem explained what he was working on. Katz suggested that the Air Force \u201cwould be very interested in what you\u2019re doing.\u201d Streem was astonished. He was not a weapons designer; one of his last professional collaborations was a music video by the rapper Cardi B. \u201cIf you\u2019re coming to me for help,\u201d he said, \u201cwe\u2019re in a lot of trouble.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWell,\u201d Katz said, \u201cyou might be surprised.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Katz urged him to apply to a program for start-ups of Air Force interest. Streem hastily filled out forms. A month later, Vermeer was selected. Streem moved to Boston, began meeting officials from the Pentagon and was at once startled and pulled in. \u201cI realized, OK, I don\u2019t know much about A.I.,\u201d he said. \u201cBut as I am talking to these people, I\u2019m kind of thinking to myself, I don\u2019t think they know much about A.I., either.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Streem is amiable, persistent and energized by a seemingly instinctual inclination for sales. When Covid closed offices, he retreated to a lakeside cabin and created an internet-scraping tool that yielded the email addresses of more than 50,000 military officers. From social isolation, Streem started writing them to discuss what they saw as the military\u2019s most pressing technical challenges. Answers clustered around reliance on GPS. Entire arsenals of American military equipment, he heard, depended on a satellite navigation system that a sophisticated enemy could disable. The more he learned, the more his ideas clicked into place: I may know how to solve these people\u2019s problems, he thought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His idea was straightforward. He would program autopilot software to process visual information from multiple cameras, compare it with onboard three-dimensional terrain maps, then triangulate to fix a weapon\u2019s location. Called a visual positioning system, or V.P.S., the software could be loaded onto any number of flying platforms, equipping them to navigate over terrain with no satellite link at all. It could not be jammed or spoofed, because it would neither emit nor receive a signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/01\/25\/magazine\/25mag-aidrones-07\/25mag-aidrones-07-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"A close-up infrared photo of two rows of similar devices sitting on shelves in a dark room.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">V.P.S. units designed by Vermeer sitting in storage. The system uses cameras to analyze an environment and match it to 3-D maps, determining precise locations even when satellite signals are jammed or unavailable.Credit&#8230;Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In early 2024, Streem rode a train from Warsaw to Kyiv and messaged Ukrainian officials on LinkedIn, introducing himself and his work. Soon he was invited to the Cabinet of Ministers building, where he made his way past the sandbagged entrance, attended an impromptu birthday party for a government employee and was led into a room with an official who wanted to put Vermeer\u2019s modules on deep-strike drones. The building\u2019s power was out. The office was dark. Ukraine was short on money, soldiers and time. The official did not mince words. \u201cHe essentially had a big map of Russia and Ukraine behind him, and immediately he started telling me about targets we\u2019re going to hit,\u201d Streem said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Streem had talked his way into Ukraine\u2019s war. Over the next year, he met drone manufactures around the country, tested prototypes on various drones and released the VPS-212, a roughly one-pound box with two cameras and a minicomputer. Assembled in an office beside a bagel shop in Brooklyn, the module can fix its location at speeds up to 218 m.p.h. \u2014 not fast enough for a proper cruise missile, but sufficient for most deep-strike drones. By summer 2025, Vermeer\u2019s technicians were helping soldiers attach them to drones flown by several units that attack strategic targets in Russia. For security reasons, Vermeer does not publicly discuss specific strikes, but Streem and a Vermeer employee in Ukraine said V.P.S. modules had guided drones to verified hits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With these results, Vermeer emerged as a winner in the scrum for contracts and funding, raising $12 million in a recent round that included the venture capital firm Draper Associates. In 2025, it attracted renewed attention from the Pentagon, which proposed attaching Vermeer\u2019s V.P.S. to new fleets of deep-strike drones of its own. The U.S. Air Force also contracted the company to develop a similar system that would mount atop drones to look skyward and navigate celestially, like an A.I.-enabled sextant for precision flight above clouds or over water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By then, Streem was immersed in his new line of work. Late in 2025, he sent me a tongue-in-cheek text about his passage from filmmaker to manufacturer of self-navigating camera modules that steer high-explosive payloads into Russia. \u201cStream reclined in his chair, vapor from his vape pen curling lazily between his fingers, as if the war beyond the walls were a distant rumor rather than the air he breathed,\u201d the text read. The prose, he said, had been generated by A.I. It misspelled his name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"link-2b0767c1\">The Great Convergence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Few people could be as conversant in the promises and the perils of A.I.-enhanced weapons as Eric Schmidt, who served as chairman of the U.S. Defense Innovation Board from 2016 to 2020 and led the bipartisan National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence from 2018 to 2021. Since working with Ukraine, he has been mostly tight-lipped about his wartime ventures, which have operated under multiple names, including White Stork, Project Eagle and Swift Beat. Through a public-relations firm, he declined to respond to multiple requests for comment for this article. But in a talk at Stanford in 2024 he called himself \u201ca licensed arms dealer.\u201d And by that fall, his operation had hired former Ukrainian soldiers to meet with active drone teams near Kyiv and train them on semiautonomous weapons to take to the front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukrainian units vary widely in quality, and Schmidt\u2019s team appears to have chosen carefully. Those collaborating with his operation are among Ukraine\u2019s best managed, with reputations for innovation, battlefield savvy and sustained success against much larger Russian forces. Among them are the Khartia Brigade, which formed in 2022 to defend Kharkiv, Ukraine\u2019s second largest city, and grew into a disciplined, tech-centric battlefield force. With an extensive fleet of aerial and ground drones, modern command posts and an ethos of data-driven decision-making, Khartia operates from hiding in the city and countryside. Its officers track Russian actions with networked ground cameras and sensors on the battlefield and reconnaissance drones in the air. The raw information is run through software producing outputs that resemble, its analysts say, \u201cMoneyball\u201d goes to war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe collect a lot of statistics and data,\u201d said Col. Daniel Kitone, the brigade commander. \u201cIn conditions where resources are limited, we are providing for efficiency, and sometimes statistics give interesting answers that drive operations.\u201d Rapid processing of multiple forms of surveillance data, the brigade\u2019s officers say, can illuminate patterns, like recurring times when Russian troops resupply positions. They then use these insights to synchronize strike-drone flights with anticipated Russian movement, hoping to catch targets in the open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/01\/25\/magazine\/25mag-aidrones-09\/25mag-aidrones-09-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"Two men talking closely in an improvised war command center with computers, maps, screens, clocks, and other people working at desks around them. \"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Khartia Brigade soldiers on shift in an underground command center in northeastern Ukraine.Credit&#8230;Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Bumblebee\u2019s combat trials began with multiple brigades last winter. One test pilot, who flew the drone near Kupiansk in December 2024, said his team put the new quadcopters through progressively harder tests against Russian positions and vehicles, with the manufacturer\u2019s engineers on call for technical assistance. \u201cDuring this whole time, the product constantly improved,\u201d the pilot said. \u201cWe constantly provided the developers with feedback: what works, what really does not work, which features are useful and which are not.\u201d As with most A.I. products, more data can lead to smarter software. During Bumblebee\u2019s quiet rollout, mission data from combat flights was logged and analyzed, several pilots said. Developers then pushed software updates to brigades that drone teams could download remotely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One early attack hit the entrance to a root cellar where Russian soldiers sheltered. As Bumblebees evolved, pilots flew them further distances and against moving targets. In January 2025, an autonomous Bumblebee attack stopped a Russian logistics truck as it drove behind enemy lines, the test pilot said. In April, after more updates, Bumblebees flew autonomously against a Russian armored vehicle driving with a jammer. The vehicle was so covered with anti-drone protective measures that it resembled a porcupine. It absorbed the first strike and kept moving. A second Bumblebee hit immobilized it. This amounted to a milestone: A vehicle with all the protective steps Russia could muster had been removed from action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bumblebee\u2019s entrance to the war had been shrouded in secrecy. But with strikes like that the hush could not last. Russia took note. Its soldiers outside Kupiansk and Kharkiv, where early Bumblebee sorties occurred, reported that these strange new drones seemed impervious to interference: They flew smoothly through jamming and kept racking up hits. The only sure way to stop them was to shoot them down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two days after the strike on the armored vehicle, the Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions, a Russian drone-manufacturing business outside Moscow, issued findings from its analysis of a downed Bumblebee recovered near the front. It nicknamed the quadcopter Marsianin, Russian for \u201cMartian,\u201d based on the assumption that the prototypes descended from NASA\u2019s Ingenuity program, which developed a small autonomous helicopter that flew on Mars. The report\u2019s author declared that Ukraine had fielded an A.I.-enhanced drone capable of \u201coperating in total radio silence\u201d while flying complex routes and maneuvers \u201ccompletely independent of navigation systems\u201d \u2014 or even a human pilot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following month, the Novorossiya Assistance Coordination Center, a Russian ultranationalist organization that provides training and equipment to Russian soldiers, published a second analysis, a 49-page report loaded with warnings. Through open-source sleuthing, its author had found a photo of a Bumblebee posted by a Reddit user who in late 2024 obtained a broken specimen from garbage discarded at a Michigan National Guard facility. With that evidence, the author, Aleksandr Lyubimov, who organizes combat-drone exhibitions in Russia, echoed the first analyst\u2019s suspicion that the Bumblebee had some connection to the United States. He noted that it \u201cposes a serious threat\u201d and asserted, accurately, that \u201cits current use does not yet reveal its full capabilities and is most likely of a combat testing nature.\u201d Nonetheless, he added, \u201cthere are no effective countermeasures against it, and none are expected in the near future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bumblebee\u2019s resistance to jamming, according to a sales pamphlet in limited circulation in Ukraine, was tied in part to \u201credundant comms,\u201d radio-wave frequency hopping and navigation by visual inertial odometry \u2014 technical solutions to signal jamming. But what made the weapon remarkable was not any one autonomous feature. It was the convergence of several.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the pamphlet, which claimed an \u201cover 70-percent direct-hit rate via autonomous terminal guidance,\u201d Schmidt\u2019s quadcopters are also capable of autonomous target recognition. By overlaying bright green squares on items of interest appearing in video feeds, pilots said, Bumblebee\u2019s software highlights potential targets, including foot soldiers, bunkers, vehicles and other aerial drones, often before human pilots can spot them. The combination of features, they said, result in an autonomous attack capability more robust and reliable than others available to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bumblebees can also be controlled over the internet, which Lipa did in the strike in Borysivka. This keeps pilots away from the front, and from many weapons that might counterattack. In theory, as long as a Bumblebee\u2019s ground station maintains a stable Wi-Fi or broadband connection, a pilot can operate it from almost anywhere \u2014 a capability demonstrated this past summer when Schmidt visited Kyiv and observed a Khartia team flying a Bumblebee released by a ground crew outside Kharkiv. According to a review of footage and people familiar with the mission, the drone passed over the lines and hit a four-wheel-drive Russian military van, known as a&nbsp;<em>bukhanka&nbsp;<\/em>\u2014 from roughly 300 miles away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"link-40eb06b6\">A Billionaire\u2019s Growing Fleet<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bumblebee is not a one-off project. It\u2019s part of an experimental pack. Schmidt\u2019s operation has also supplied Ukrainian units with a medium-range fixed-wing strike drone with a two-meter wingspan, marketed under the name Hornet, according to another sales pamphlet from early 2025. Like Bumblebee, it has A.I.-powered target recognition and terminal-attack guidance, along with jam-resistant communication and navigation systems. The pamphlet advertised an 11-pound payload, a cruise speed of 62 m.p.h. and range exceeding 90 miles. \u201cOur A.I.-powered platform processes battlefield data in real time, adapting to changing conditions without human intervention,\u201d the pamphlet says. \u201cNeutralize more targets at a fraction of legacy system costs. Deploy at scale to achieve overwhelming force multiplication against sophisticated threats.\u201d The pamphlet claimed a \u201cfuture monthly production\u201d of more than 6,000 units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Schmidt has also become an ally in Ukraine\u2019s defense against Shaheds,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/06\/25\/magazine\/ukraine-russia-war-drone-shahed-iran.html\">the Iranian-designed long-range drones that pummel Ukrainian cities almost nightly.<\/a>&nbsp;In July 2025, he appeared with Ukraine\u2019s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to announce a strategic partnership to provide Ukraine with A.I.-powered drones, with an emphasis on an interceptor system known as Merops. Ukraine was developing its own human-piloted anti-Shahed drones, and had some early successes. But Schmidt\u2019s weapons, Ukrainian officials said, were more effective. Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine\u2019s first deputy prime minister, showed videos of them striking Shaheds at high speed. Merops had a hit rate as high as 95 percent, he said. (After its combat trials in Ukraine, Merops is now being deployed on NATO\u2019s eastern flank.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukrainian pilots and officers say Schmidt\u2019s products have shown more promise than most, though reviews for Bumblebee have not been universally glowing. The weapon has no night cameras, limiting flights to daytime. Lyubimov, the Russian technical analyst, described the drone as inadequately weather resistant. \u201cThe design exhibits many \u2018childhood flaws,\u2019\u201d he wrote. But Schmidt\u2019s technicians are available on the Signal app and responsive to suggestions, said Serhii, a Bumblebee combat pilot and Khartia\u2019s chief technical consultant. The first Bumblebees were difficult to operate, but through cycles of feedback and updates they became better. \u201cIn the beginning it didn\u2019t fly without a professional pilot,\u201d he said. \u201cNow it can fly with a newbie.\u201d Serhii said he had tested 15 semiautonomous terminal-attack drones from different manufacturers, and Bumblebee was the best. A new generation of Bumblebees is in the works, he added, with a stronger airframe and night optics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hardware upgrades would be welcome. But the captain who integrates new tech into Khartia\u2019s operations said hardware was not the secret ingredient behind Bumblebee\u2019s performance. It is the firmware and the flight software, BeeQGroundControl, that separates the drone from others. \u201cEric Schmidt made a very innovative drone,\u201d he said, adding that Bumblebee is one of the only drones in Ukraine that \u201cis ready out of the box.\u201d Teams simply add an explosive charge and begin work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In one coordinated kamikaze attack, Serhii said, three Bumblebees and a standard F.P.V. drone destroyed a 152-millimeter howitzer inside Russia that was protected under a bunker roofed with logs. The first Bumblebee dove into camouflage netting and set it afire; the second breached the roof. Then the standard F.P.V. plunged inside and the final Bumblebee hovered overhead and scattered 10 small anti-personnel land mines around the site. The strikes were timed two minutes or less apart. Khartia has repeated the tactic. \u201cThere have been many similar attacks,\u201d Serhii said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bumblebees are so valuable, he added, that teams flying them are assigned only to important missions \u2014 principally hunts behind Russian lines for artillery and logistics vehicles, and to carry relay transmitters that extend other drones\u2019 ranges. Other units deliver packets of blood to bunkers that medics use to stabilize&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/11\/05\/magazine\/ukraine-russia-war-drones.html\">wounded soldiers awaiting evacuation<\/a>, an officer supervising strike-drone teams said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For all the ways that Bumblebees have brought together multiple autonomous features, Schmidt\u2019s engineers, Ukrainians said, have not programmed weapons for full autonomy. Like NORDA Dynamics\u2019s Underdog, Bumblebees require a human to designate targets before attack. \u201cMy opinion is that we need to leave the final judgment to the human being,\u201d one Bumblebee test pilot said. Schmidt has agreed. \u201cThere\u2019s always this worry about the \u2018Dr. Strangelove\u2019 situation, where you have an automatic weapon which makes the decision on its own,\u201d he said in a televised 2024 appearance. \u201cThat would be terrible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/01\/25\/magazine\/25mag-aidrones-02\/25mag-aidrones-02-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"In storeroom cluttered with drone parts, a man with a ponytail and tattooed arms sits at a table talking up to a man with a shaved head and a T-shirt standing next him.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A soldier known by the call sign Lipa (left) from Ukraine\u2019s Khartia Brigade, updating the software on Bumblebee attack drones.Credit&#8230;Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In \u201cDr. Strangelove,\u201d the 1964 Stanley Kubrick movie, a Soviet doomsday device detects a rogue American attack and automatically launches a nuclear response, effectively exterminating humankind. Schmidt\u2019s caution aligns with Pentagon policy, which embraces keeping \u201chumans in the loop,\u201d at least in an aspirational spirit. Its 2023 guidance for autonomy in weapons systems, known as Directive 3000.09, requires \u201cappropriate levels of human judgment over the use of force,\u201d and senior-level official review of all autonomous systems in development or to be deployed. But the directive offers no clarity about what, exactly, constitutes \u201cappropriate levels of human judgment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Further, no global consensus or convention exists for these ideas or other forms of design constraint. The arms race is afoot without mutually accepted guardrails. Schmidt has prefaced his support for keeping people in the loop by pointing out that \u201cRussia and China do not have this doctrine,\u201d suggesting that weapons that kill outside of human supervision could find their way to the battlefield no matter anyone\u2019s positions or desires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"link-43cf11d1\">At the Edge of Total Autonomy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The compete-or-die paradigm has brought semiautonomous weapons into new territory fast. X-Drone, for example, merges multiple forms of autonomous tech onto long-range drones. Its software helps navigate the weapons to a distant area, like a seaport, then uses computer vision to identify and attack specific targets \u2014 warships, fuel-storage tanks, parked aircraft. \u201cYou fly 500 kilometers and you miss a target by a little bit, and your mission is wasted,\u201d the company\u2019s founder said. \u201cNow we train on an oil tank and it hits.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Drones with X-Drone\u2019s software have also hit trains carrying fuel and expensive Russian air-defense radar systems, clearing routes for more drones to follow, according to the founder. Andrii, a pilot of medium-range strike drones, said he flew more than 100 A.I.-enhanced missions in 2025 with the company\u2019s software. His work involved flying to areas where reconnaissance flights detected a valuable target, then passing control to the software for terminal attack. On a sortie this fall, he said, the drone struck a mobile air-defense system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By late 2025, the founder said, X-Drone had provided Ukrainian units with more than 30,000 A.I.-enhanced weapons. The company is experimenting with more complex capabilities, including loading facial recognition technology into drones that could identify then kill specific people, and coupling flight-control and navigation software with large language models, or L.L.M.s, \u201cso the drone becomes an agent,\u201d he said. \u201cYou can literally speak to the drone, like: \u2018Fly to right, 100 meters. What do we see? Do you see a window? Fly inside the window.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using armed quadcopters to peer into windows or enter structures is not new. The practice is common in shattered neighborhoods at the front. Videos posted on Telegram by Ukrainian units show piloted quadcopters performing exactly such feats, slipping into occupied buildings to kill Russian soldiers within. Adding a role for A.I. on such flights could allow this particular form of violence to expand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With A.I.-enhanced weapons, the ethical distinction between two broadly different types of strike \u2014 a drone selecting a large inanimate object for attack and a drone autonomously hunting human beings \u2014 is large. But the technical difference is smaller, and X-Drone has already crept from the inanimate to the human. X-Drone has developed A.I.-enhanced quadcopters that, its founder says, can attack Russian soldiers with or without a human in the loop. He said the software allows remote human pilots to abort auto-selected attacks. But when communications fail, human control can become impossible. In those cases, he said, the drones could hunt alone. Whether this is occurring yet is not clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As semiautonomous weapons train to pursue people, Asaro, of the Stop Killer Robots Campaign, warned that entering this uncharted moral frontier was deeply worrisome, because computer programs applying rules to patterns of sensor data should not determine people\u2019s fates. \u201cThese things are going to decide who lives and who dies without any sort of access to morality,\u201d he said, and were the essence of digital dehumanization. \u201cThey are amoral. Machines cannot fathom the distinction between inanimate objects and people.\u201d Ukrainians involved often agree. But whether fighting in brigades or coding in company offices, as members of a population unwillingly greased in blood, they speak of ample motivation to continue their work, and of little time for regret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>X-Drone\u2019s founder had not intended to become an arms manufacturer; it is a role he neither sought nor foresaw. Born in Soviet Russia, he worked a long career in the United States and was arranging tech deals in Kyiv when the Kremlin\u2019s forces invaded in 2022. A physicist by training, he joined a neighborhood defense unit, which gave him a rifle. When the Russian vanguard breached the capital near his home, he turned out to meet it, then recorded videos of the bloodied bodies of soldiers his group killed. Over a meal in Kyiv in 2025, he showed one of the videos almost incredulously. \u201cAll of my career I worked in Silicon Valley and on Wall Street,\u201d he said, \u201cand one day I am shooting Russians near my house?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now the front was only a few hours\u2019 drive away, and Russia\u2019s missiles and long-range drones could kill anyone in Ukraine in their sleep on any night. He nodded toward a peaceful daytime street scene. \u201cIt feels normal, but it\u2019s just not,\u201d he said. \u201cThis is an illusion of normality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wars can push everyday people to extreme positions, which for a physicist can take the form of pragmatic epiphany: With Ukraine\u2019s defenses slowly yielding ground, and defeat meaning a return to life under Moscow\u2019s boot, developing A.I.-enhanced drones was logical, obvious and necessary. Western militaries were far behind, he said, and Ukraine\u2019s resistance was buying them time. Its innovations might save them, too. \u201cDrones with A.I. are the big game-changer,\u201d he said. \u201cThe whole military infrastructure previously is obsolete.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"link-113038ab\">\u2018They Should Have Stopped the War Early On\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On the range where Pavlo trained pilots on Sine Engineering\u2019s tech, one student, Yurii, who commands an F.P.V. platoon in a frontline brigade, brushed aside philosophical discussion. He had participated in some of the war\u2019s most prominent battles, including the incursion in 2024 into Kursk. When the full invasion began, he was a medical doctor in Western Europe. Now he killed Russian soldiers, a career deviation he insisted contained no breach of his Hippocratic oath. While practicing medicine, he prescribed antibiotics to kill microbes to save patients and stop contagions\u2019 spread. Strikes on Russian soldiers, he offered, amounted to a similar public service. \u201cNow we are killing bugs, too,\u201d he said. \u201cThey\u2019re just larger bugs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A front-row participant in Ukraine\u2019s adoption of drone warfare, Yurii had seen his share of new weapons. In his view, A.I.-powered drones were inevitable. \u201cAny large-scale war, it delivers demons,\u201d he said. \u201cIt unleashes something powerful and it accelerates developments which otherwise would have taken decades.\u201d World War I saw rollouts of combat aviation, tanks and artillery, alongside widespread use of chlorine, phosgene and sulfur mustard. World War II ended after the United States destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki with nuclear bombs. \u201cWho knows what this war is going to unleash,\u201d Yurii said. \u201cIf the international community is concerned about this, then they should have stopped the war early on.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weapons as transformative as the combat drones proliferating in Ukraine are historically uncommon. They enforce tectonic shifts in military tactics, budgets, doctrines and cultures. Organizations that adapt to the new capabilities and dangers can thrive; those that do not suffer battlefield humiliations and miseries for their rank and file. The rapid evolution of drones, now accelerating through integration with autonomy, is a moment potentially analogous to the rise of the machine gun during the Russo-Japanese War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That new weapon\u2019s power was demonstrated during the 1904 siege of Port Arthur. Tsarist forces were thick with peasants and drunkards. Japan\u2019s imperial ranks were motivated and well trained. But when they attacked fortified Russian positions in massed infantry assaults, they rushed into machine guns, previously unseen in state-on-state conventional war, that shattered their lines with sweeping bursts of fire. Western military attach\u00e9s were present to observe events that darkened dirt red. And yet most nations failed to take notice. European armies, oblivious to what machine guns would mean for their soldiers\u2019 fates, continued to feed cavalry horses and to preach the glories of the open-ground charge. A decade later, hapless generals poured away young lives on the Western Front, out of step with the technology of their time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The state of Western military readiness today galvanizes Deborah Fairlamb, a founding partner of Green Flag Ventures, a Delaware-registered venture capital fund investing in Ukrainian defense-tech start-ups. Even before autonomous drones appeared, she said, the extraordinary proliferation of unmanned weapons outran nations\u2019 defensive abilities. \u201cMost people in the West do not understand what is happening here,\u201d she said, and the gap could mean stinging defeat and enormous loss of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2025\/12\/25\/magazine\/25mag-ai-drones-homepage\/25mag-ai-drones-homepage-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"A freshly dug grave in the foreground of a cemetery covered with flowers and blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flags. \"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The military section at Cemetery No. 18 in Kharkiv, one of many burial grounds for Ukrainian soldiers killed in its war with Russia.Credit&#8230;Finbarr O&#8217;Reilly for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Fairlamb lives in Kyiv. Her alarm sounded after American veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq visited Ukraine to prospect for business or fight as volunteers. They entered a war in which new tech has caused almost unfathomable carnage. Russia and Ukraine have suffered well over a million combined casualties in less than four years, with most wounds caused by drones. \u201cThey come back from the front, like, shaken,\u201d she said, and they share a refrain: \u201cMy team would not last for 48 hours out there.\u201d With A.I.-enhanced drones joining the action, Fairlamb described the need to boost A.I.-arms development as no less than existential, prompting her to approach embassies and arms manufacturers with urgency. \u201cIt really and truly is about making people understand how dramatically different this technology is,\u201d she said. \u201cAnd how unbelievably unprepared the United States is.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Schmidt, multiple motivations appear to overlap. At Stanford in 2024, he said he entered drone manufacturing after seeing Russian tanks destroy apartments with elderly women and children inside. His entrance to the war earned him genuine gratitude from Ukrainians, whether they fly Bumblebees or are at decreased risk every time a Merops interceptor hits a Shahed. With a year-plus of combat shock-testing of its products, his operation is also well positioned for potential profits as nations reassess and update their arsenals in light of lessons learned from Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has framed his movement into the A.I. arms sector as implicitly humanitarian. \u201cNow you sit there and you go, Why would a good liberal like me do that?\u201d he said at Stanford. \u201cThe answer is that the whole theory of armies is tanks, artilleries and mortars, and we can eliminate all of them and we can make the penalty for invading a country, at least by land, essentially be impossible.\u201d A.I.-powered weapons, he suggested, could end this kind of warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a prediction with precedent from when machines guns were poised to upend ground combat as people knew it. In 1877, Richard Gatling, inventor of the Gatling gun, a prominent forerunner of automatic fire, proposed that as an efficient multiplier of lethal violence his weapon might spare people the horrors of war. \u201cIt occurred to me,\u201d he wrote, that \u201cif I could invent a machine \u2014 a gun \u2014 which could by rapidity of fire, enable one man to do as much battle duty as a hundred, that it would, to a great extent, supersede the necessity of large armies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Maybe the future will prove Eric Schmidt\u2019s vision right. Whatever is coming will reveal itself in time. History shows Gatling was spectacularly wrong.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Back to News The Separation:&nbsp;Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership, The New York Times, 12.31.25, and Dawn of the AI Drone, The New York Times Magazine, 1.4.26 And there it is, midnight on New Year\u2019s Eve here in Ukraine. The start of 2026. Complete silence. No crowds, no fireworks, there\u2019s no cheering. Every other capital in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1001004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[55,54],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17526"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1001004"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17526"}],"version-history":[{"count":39,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17526\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17572,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17526\/revisions\/17572"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}