{"id":17836,"date":"2026-03-01T19:54:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T03:54:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=17836"},"modified":"2026-03-01T19:54:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T03:54:11","slug":"big-change-seems-certain-in-iran-what-kind-is-the-question-the-new-york-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=17836","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Big Change Seems Certain in Iran. What Kind Is the Question&#8221;, The New York Times"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/planetearthfdn.org\/news\">Back to News<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/03\/01\/multimedia\/01int-iran-next-jqpb\/01int-iran-next-jqpb-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"A crowd of people, many wearing head coverings. One person cries out while holding a picture of a bearded man.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Iranians mourning their supreme leader at a rally in Tehran.Credit&#8230;Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts say that Iran\u2019s clerical rulers may be too deeply entrenched for Iranians to topple them, and that the U.S. and Israeli strikes risk setting off deeper radicalization or violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Listen to this article&nbsp;\u00b7 8:24 min&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/help.nytimes.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/24318293692180\">Learn more<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/erika-solomon\">Erika Solomon<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>March 1, 2026<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The death of Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a watershed moment in the 47-year existence of the Islamic Republic. The scenes that followed \u2014 throngs of Iranians taking to the streets to celebrate, others turning out to grieve \u2014 signal the deep uncertainty about what comes next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are now three key questions: How will protesters respond to President Trump\u2019s call to take over the government? Can Iran\u2019s authoritarian system survive? And could the attack unleash a chaotic battle for power?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump and Israel\u2019s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have made public appeals to Iran\u2019s people, arguing that they have offered them a historic opportunity to topple their brutal authoritarian government. How they envision an unarmed population facing down a heavily armed, ideologically driven security force is less clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Though it has been only two days of strikes, some regional experts are skeptical that an aerial campaign alone could weaken Iran\u2019s government enough that Iranians could bring it down with protests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nonetheless, Iran is headed toward a transformative moment, said Farzan Sabet, an analyst on Iran and Middle East politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSome kind of change will happen in the system,\u201d he said. \u201cBut in which direction? We don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/03\/01\/multimedia\/01int-iran-next-jkhv\/01int-iran-next-jkhv-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"People standing silhouetted against a night city skyline. Two hold phones with bright screens.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Iranians in Tehran took to their phones as news spread that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed.Credit&#8230;The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"link-10b79632\">Could Iranian protesters topple their government?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In some ways, Iranians are ever more defiant after facing a brutal crackdown on nationwide antigovernment protests in January, in which security forces&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/25\/world\/middleeast\/iran-how-crackdown-was-done.html\">killed thousands<\/a>. As the violent repression subsided, the risks were still high even before the bombardment began. Yet&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/02\/27\/world\/middleeast\/iran-student-protests.html\">students still protested<\/a>&nbsp;and held sit-ins, and the families of slain protesters used their memorial services to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/02\/17\/world\/middleeast\/iran-memorials-protesters-crackdown.html\">voice dissent.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After the authorities confirmed Ayatollah Khamenei\u2019s death in the attack, many Iranians dared to celebrate publicly \u2014 but not to the point of risking bloodshed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Arian, a resident of a suburb near Tehran, described seeing people \u201chonking in the streets, shouting chants from windows.\u201d Like all people interviewed inside the country, he asked to withhold his full name for fear of retaliation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Sunday morning, Arian said, he saw people dancing and singing in the streets \u2014 until they noticed the arrival of armed members of Iran\u2019s Basij, the volunteer militia force aligned with Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guards. \u201cWhen the Basij showed up, everyone got scared and quickly scattered,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even under aerial bombardment, Iran\u2019s domestic security apparatus was still making a show of force. Basij forces, estimated to be around one million strong around the country, have already been mobilized around the capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe brutal killing of protesters in January suggests domestic unrest will be met with an iron fist,\u201d said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. \u201cThis time under far harsher wartime conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some airstrikes have begun to target Basij and intelligence headquarters, but experts are divided as to whether airstrikes can inflict enough damage to weaken a deeply entrenched and complex network of security forces across such a large country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe problem is these are very multilayered targets,\u201d said Abdolrasool Divsallar, an Iran expert at the Catholic University of Milan. \u201cYou hit one, but there are so many others. I am not sure how long it can be sustained, munitions wise.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/03\/01\/multimedia\/01int-iran-next-klth\/01int-iran-next-klth-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"A cityscape under a cloudy sky with a large plume of dark gray smoke rising between buildings.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Smoke rising over Tehran on Sunday following strikes.Credit&#8230;Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"link-19c1d5b5\">Could Iran\u2019s current regime survive?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Even as strikes wiped out several of Iran\u2019s top political and military leaders, official statements went to great lengths to show the system was prepared for the shock and still functioning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After Ayatollah Khamenei\u2019s death, Iranian officials announced that the government would follow the constitutional framework for selecting the country\u2019s next leader, and that a temporary leadership council would be formed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ali Larijani, the head of Iran\u2019s Supreme National Security Council who is seen as the de facto leader behind the scenes, stressed that idea in televised comments urging unity after the ayatollah\u2019s death.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThroughout history, the Iranian nation has faced even greater challenges; even the Mongols plowed through the entire country, yet the people stood firm and defended their land,\u201d he said. \u201cSuch martyrdoms make people resistant and steadfast.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the system could undergo a transformation from within. Mr. Larijani, seen as a pragmatist, is the type of figure observers say could potentially strike a deal with Washington now that Iran\u2019s more ideologically driven supreme leader is gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some ordinary Iranians said that such a deal, if accompanied by an easing of international sanctions on Iran, may be palatable to many residents who have suffered through so many months of instability and a collapsing economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cMost people aren\u2019t chasing deep meaning,\u201d said Payman, 45, a businessman in Tehran. \u201cThey just want a normal life: family, work, small goals. If that becomes possible, a lot of people might stop pushing for bigger change.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there is also the possibility Iran\u2019s new leaders would turn the state in the opposite direction \u2014 making it even more radical. \u201cThe risk is that the more hard-line figures emerge,\u201d Mr. Divsallar said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fact that the leadership change was brought about by American and Israeli attacks increases that possibility, he said. \u201cThat works completely against what people wished for,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts point to several appointments that could tip a transition in this direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/03\/01\/multimedia\/01int-iran-next-pvqf\/01int-iran-next-pvqf-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" alt=\"A crowd on a street, with one woman holding a poster of a white-bearded individual. A building mural in the background depicts similar figures and vibrant flags.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A woman holding a photo of Ayatollah Khamenei in Tehran on Sunday.Credit&#8230;Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Two of the members of Iran\u2019s interim leadership council are hard-liners. One of them, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, is from Iran\u2019s Council of Guardians, a powerful group of jurists. The other is Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje\u2019i, the head of the judiciary. The third member, President Masoud Pezeshkian, is a moderate, but had been largely sidelined before the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another bellwether is the reported appointment of Gen. Ahmad Vahidi to lead the Revolutionary Guards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s an incredibly brutal person. So I think they\u2019re not going to hesitate to use extreme violence,\u201d said Mr. Sabet, of the Geneva Graduate Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"link-771e7daa\">Could Iran descend into chaos?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond toppling or transforming Iran\u2019s current system is the possibility that the war unleashes chaos in a country of 90 million people that borders seven countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are many potential opponents who could use violence to challenge a weakened state. Some ethnic minorities, like the Kurds and the Baluchis, already have armed opposition groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mustafa Hijri, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Iran, said that his organization was part of an alliance of groups from Iran\u2019s ethnic minorities, and that among them were parties that \u201cwhen necessary, may engage in armed resistance as part of their struggle.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Officials from two Kurdish groups in exile, who asked not to be identified, said they were planning on trying to restart operations inside the country, aiming to encourage an uprising in Iran\u2019s Kurdish region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even before the war started, many Iranians were bemoaning the increasingly polarized state of the country in the wake of the brutal crackdowns on the protests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government retains an ideological and religious support base that, in the current war, would be highly motivated to fight back against perceived threats. That raises the possibility of internal fragmentation and violence that spills beyond Iran\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Sunday, Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, an influential cleric in Iran,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/mehrnews\/353587\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">called for jihad<\/a>&nbsp;against Israel and the United States, according to remarks published in the semiofficial Mehr news agency.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All of these factors create a growing risk of a dangerous insurgency should the state collapse, similar to the insurgency that broke out in Iraq after U.S. forces invaded it in 2003, said Ms. Geranmayeh, the analyst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThis is a holy war for them \u2014 and they seem willing to burn down the country and region before surrendering,\u201d she said. \u201cIf this air campaign succeeds in toppling Iran\u2019s leadership, years of chaos probably lie ahead for the country and its people.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Leily Nikounazar&nbsp;and&nbsp;Falih Hassan&nbsp;Hassan contributed reporting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>See more on:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/topic\/organization\/islamic-revolutionary-guards-corps-quds-force\">Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (Quds Force)<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/topic\/person\/ali-khamenei\">Ali Khamenei<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Back to News Experts say that Iran\u2019s clerical rulers may be too deeply entrenched for Iranians to topple them, and that the U.S. and Israeli strikes risk setting off deeper radicalization or violence. Listen to this article&nbsp;\u00b7 8:24 min&nbsp;Learn more By&nbsp;Erika Solomon The death of Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a watershed moment [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1001004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17836"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1001004"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17836"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17836\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17837,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17836\/revisions\/17837"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17836"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17836"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17836"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}