{"id":2996,"date":"2018-04-25T00:56:44","date_gmt":"2018-04-25T07:56:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=2996"},"modified":"2018-04-25T00:59:48","modified_gmt":"2018-04-25T07:59:48","slug":"did-macron-just-charm-trump-into-compromising-on-iran-the-new-yorker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=2996","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Did Macron Just Charm Trump into Compromising on Iran?&#8221;, The New Yorker"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By Robin Wright, April 24, 2018<\/p>\n<p>French President <a class=\"ArticleBody__link___1FS03\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/daily-comment\/the-bromance-myth-of-emmanuel-macron-and-donald-trump\">Emmanuel Macron<\/a> masterfully works Donald Trump, perhaps better than any U.S. ally. By the end of the day Tuesday, it looked like he might\u2014just might\u2014prevent an angry showdown between the United States and Iran. Trump began the day by virtually declaring war on the Islamic Republic if the <a class=\"ArticleBody__link___1FS03\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/news-desk\/the-scramble-to-salvage-the-iran-nuclear-deal\">nuclear deal<\/a> unravels and Tehran resumes uranium enrichment, a fuel process for both peaceful nuclear energy and bombs. \u201cThey\u2019re not going to be restarting anything,\u201d the President pronounced angrily, during an Oval Office photo opportunity with Macron. \u201dIf they restart it, they\u2019re gonna have big problems, bigger than they\u2019ve ever had before. And you can mark it down.\u201d He called the historic accord, finalized in 2015, between Iran and the world\u2019s six major powers, \u201cinsane. It\u2019s ridiculous. It should never have been made.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But, in the afternoon, after talks with Macron, Trump was almost conciliatory. He even hinted, at a joint press conference with Macron, that the United States and its European allies could have \u201can agreement among ourselves very quickly. I think we\u2019re fairly close to understanding each other.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The French leader is trying to coax Trump into accepting an expanded compromise that would prevent him from pulling the U.S. out of the nuclear accord\u2014a decision is due by May 12th\u2014and address the White House\u2019s concerns about Iran\u2019s broader behavior. It would build on what exists to \u201cfix it\u201d\u2014the language Trump uses\u2014rather than revise it or renegotiate it from scratch. Macron said that the \u201cfour pillars\u201d of such a compromise would focus on Tehran\u2019s missile program and its meddling in the rest of the Middle East, notably in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Iran deal is an important issue,\u201d Macron said, during the morning photo opportunity. \u201cBut we have to take it as a part of the broader picture, which is security in the over-all region. And we have the Syrian situation. We have a common relation in Iraq. We have the stability to preserve for our allies in the region, and what we want to do is contain the Iranian presence in the region.\u201d The Iran deal, he added, is just \u201cpart of this broader picture.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For Trump, the appeal of Macron\u2019s compromise is that it produces a formal consensus among Western powers about several Middle East hot spots in which Iran is involved. It\u2019s a burden-sharing formula at a time when Iran represents the deepest policy division between the United States and Europe. Senior European diplomats have expressed concern that a formal split on the Iran deal would undermine the transatlantic alliance, which has been the foundation of relations since the Second World War. Trump sees Iran\u2019s hand\u2014and its military\u2014behind virtually all major problems in the world\u2019s most volatile region, as he made clear again on Tuesday. \u201cIt just seems that no matter where you go, especially in the Middle East, Iran is behind it,\u201d he said in his morning appearance with Macron. \u201cYou look at the ballistic missiles that they\u2019re going and testing. What kind of a deal is it where you\u2019re allowed to test missiles all over the place? What kind of a deal is it when you don\u2019t talk about Yemen, and you don\u2019t talk about all of the other problems we have with respect to Iran, especially look at what they\u2019re doing in Iraq.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The compromise has its limits, however, according to European envoys. It involves an agreement between only the four Western signatories\u2014not China and Russia, which were equal parties to the nuclear deal. It spells out how the West interprets the accord but does not formally change any of its language. For the White House, the most sensitive issue is the so-called sunset clauses\u2014or the time when various restrictions on Iran\u2019s nuclear program are lifted. They span from a few years to twenty-five years, although the deal, in multiple places, says Iran can never develop a nuclear bomb. One of the compromises\u2014still being negotiated\u2014toughens that language.<\/p>\n<p>The compromise formula faces two major hurdles: first, the Europeans are asking Washington not only to stick to the deal, brokered by the Obama Administration\u2014they also want a pledge from the Trump Administration to fulfill the U.S. commitments under it. Iran has repeatedly charged that the United States is impeding foreign investment in Iran that was promised under the deal.<\/p>\n<p>In a full-court press, the three European powers that signed the accord\u2014Britain, France, and Germany\u2014are all weighing in with Trump this week to prevent him from abandoning the agreement. The German Chancellor, <a class=\"ArticleBody__link___1FS03\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/tag\/angela-merkel\">Angela Merkel<\/a>, is due here on Friday. The British Prime Minister, <a class=\"ArticleBody__link___1FS03\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/tag\/theresa-may\">Theresa May<\/a>, is expected to have a telephone conversation with Trump this week as well. \u201cThe key is what they get back from the United States,\u201d a European envoy told me. \u201cTrying to talk to the Americans about sanctions relief for Iran has often been a one-way conversation.\u201d But Trump suggested possible movement after his discussion with Macron on Tuesday afternoon. \u201cI think we really had some substantive talks on Iran,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd we\u2019re looking forward to doing something.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"articleBody\" class=\"ArticleBody__articleBody___1GSGP\" data-template=\"two-column\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"SectionBreak__sectionBreak___1ppA7\">\n<p>Macron struck a positive note, too. \u201cIt\u2019s not a mystery. We did not have the same starting positions, stances, and neither you nor I have a habit of changing our stances or going with the wind,\u201d the French leader said. \u201cThat being said, I can say that we\u2019ve had a very frank discussion.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The second hurdle is getting Iran to accept documents that supplement the deal, which already covers a hundred and fifty-nine pages. In interviews over the weekend, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, told me that Tehran is in no mood to accommodate further demands, as the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency has repeatedly verified Tehran\u2019s compliance while the United States has violated its obligations.<\/p>\n<p>As part of the expanded compromise, Macron is also using his state visit to urge Trump to keep American forces in <a class=\"ArticleBody__link___1FS03\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/tag\/syria\">Syria<\/a>\u2014partly to stem Iran\u2019s ability to widen its influence. More than two thousand U.S. troops are deployed in Syria to help defeat around two thousand residual <em class=\"small\">isis<\/em> fighters. The Islamic State holds two pockets of territory in the Euphrates River Valley and along the Syrian border with Iraq. \u201cTogether, in the long run, we can find a solution to the Syrian situation,\u201d Macron said at the press conference.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this month, Trump declared \u201cMission accomplished\u201d regarding the U.S. deployment in Syria and asked his generals to extricate American troops within four to six months. Trump seemed to have at least listened to Macron\u2019s appeal. \u201cWe want to come home,\u201d the President said. \u201cWe\u2019ll be coming home. But we want to leave a strong and lasting footprint.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For a man who has few friends among foreign leaders\u2014and often ignores the advice they offer\u2014Trump may have met a moderating influence in Macron. The President, as he has on other policy issues, may change his mind in the weeks ahead. The central question, of course, is whether he can stomach the idea of any diplomacy with Iran.<\/p>\n<p><em>Robin Wright has been a contributing writer to The New Yorker since 1988. Her first piece on Iran won the National Magazine Award for best reporting. A former correspondent for\u00a0the Washington\u00a0Post, CBS News,\u00a0the Los Angeles\u00a0Times,\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0Sunday Times\u00a0of London, she has reported from more than\u00a0a\u00a0hundred and forty countries. She is also a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. She has been a fellow at the Brookings Institution and\u00a0the\u00a0Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,\u00a0as well as\u00a0at Yale, Duke, Dartmouth, and the University of California, Santa Barbara.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Wright\u00a0received the U.N. Correspondents\u00a0Association\u00a0Gold Medal for international coverage, and the Overseas Press Club Award for\u00a0the \u201cbest reporting in any medium requiring exceptional courage and initia\u00adtive,\u201d\u00a0for\u00a0her\u00a0coverage of African wars. The American Academy of Diplomacy\u00a0named her\u00a0journalist of the year for \u201cdistinguished reporting and analysis of international affairs.\u201d She\u00a0also won the National Press Club Award for diplomatic reporting and has been the recipient of a MacArthur Foundation grant.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Wright is the author of several books, including \u201c<a class=\"ContributorBio__link___10ge6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0375706305\/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" target=\"_blank\" data-amzn-asin=\"0375706305\">The Last Great Revolution: Turmoil and Transformation in Iran<\/a>,\u201d\u00a0\u201c<a class=\"ContributorBio__link___10ge6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0743233425\/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" target=\"_blank\" data-amzn-asin=\"0743233425\">Sacred Rage: The Wrath of Militant Islam<\/a>,\u201d and \u201c<a class=\"ContributorBio__link___10ge6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0143114891\/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" target=\"_blank\" data-amzn-asin=\"0143114891\">Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East<\/a>,\u201d which was selected by\u00a0the New York\u00a0Times\u00a0and\u00a0the Washington\u00a0Post\u00a0as one of the most notable books of\u00a02008. Her book, \u201c<a class=\"ContributorBio__link___10ge6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/1439103178\/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" target=\"_blank\" data-amzn-asin=\"1439103178\">Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion\u00a0Across the Islamic World<\/a>,\u201d was selected as\u00a0the best book on international affairs\u00a0by the Overseas Press Club.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Reading List<\/strong>: Robin Wright recommends David Remnick\u2019s \u201c<a class=\"ContributorBio__link___10ge6\" href=\"http:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/magazine\/2015\/12\/21\/negotiating-the-whirlwind\">Negotiating the Whirlwind<\/a>,\u201d about John Kerry\u2019s mission in the Middle East.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/news-desk\/did-macron-just-charm-trump-into-compromising-on-iran\">The New Yorker<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Robin Wright, April 24, 2018 French President Emmanuel Macron masterfully works Donald Trump, perhaps better than any U.S. ally. By the end of the day Tuesday, it looked like he might\u2014just might\u2014prevent an angry showdown between the United States and Iran. Trump began the day by virtually declaring war on the Islamic Republic if [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1001004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2996"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1001004"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2996"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2996\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3000,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2996\/revisions\/3000"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2996"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2996"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2996"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}