This coming November, delegates from nearly every country had been scheduled to gather in Brazil to discuss climate change at the 25th United Nations Conference of the Parties. When the meeting was planned, Brazil seemed a logical choice to host it. Not anymore.<\/p>\n
Brazil depends more on renewable energy sources (including biofuels) than any of the world\u2019s other large energy consumers. And between 2005 and 2012, it also ran a successful campaign to reduce deforestation by about 80 percent. But the election of Jair Bolsonaro as Brazil\u2019s president has thrown the country\u2019s status as an environmental beacon into doubt.<\/p>\n
In November 2018, Brazil withdrew its offer to host the climate conference, citing the government transition process and budgetary constraints. Bolsonaro, who took office Jan. 1, clearly believes that economic development is at odds with environmental protection and that considerations about the planet should not be allowed to inhibit industry, particularly Brazil\u2019s huge agricultural sector. During the campaign Bolsonaro earned the support of Brazil\u2019s agribusiness lobby, the ruralistas<\/em>, which make up one of the country\u2019s most powerful congressional blocs. While corporate campaign donations are illegal in Brazil, many wealthy ruralistas<\/em> are able to self-fund their campaigns and get elected; as a result, they have become a powerful force in Congress, and Bolsonaro needs their backing.<\/p>\n The newly inaugurated president has grumbled that environmental policy is \u201csuffocating\u201d the economy. He has threatened to withdraw Brazil from the Paris agreement on climate change (although he recanted after an international backlash). His environment minister, Ricardo Salles, is a former legal director of the Brazilian Rural Society, an agricultural group, and was fined this past December for changing plans for an environmentally protected area to benefit businesses in the state of S\u00e3o Paulo when he was head of an environmental agency there. Bolsonaro has also promised to remove some protections for the Amazon rainforest, including by rolling back indigenous reserves, such as Raposa Serra do Sol\u2014he has advocated for agriculture and mining exploration there and said the area is too large for its inhabitants. In one of his first acts as president he shifted the power to regulate and create indigenous reserves\u2014which account for about 13 percent of Brazil\u2019s territory, including vast swaths of rainforest\u2014from the National Indian Foundation agency to the agriculture ministry. On the plus side, Bolsonaro does advocate expanding wind and solar energy and reducing dependence on coal and oil for power generation, but he has offered few details on how he plans to do so. He also supports ethanol incentives, popular with Brazil\u2019s sugar cane lobby, but has expressed no plans to support other forms of clean transport.<\/p>\n Brazil already has one of the cleanest electricity portfolios in the world.<\/span><\/p>\n Throughout 2018, about 65 percent of its electricity supply came from large hydropower projects, and more than 15 percent came from wind, solar, and biomass. Interest in large-scale hydropower development is waning, as most remaining potential projects are located in environmentally sensitive or indigenous areas. Meanwhile, auctions for wind and solar projects have generated bids to produce renewable power at some of the lowest prices in the world and attracted<\/a> $6 billion of investment in 2017.Even if large-scale hydropower development has reached a point of diminishing returns, there is still progress to be made on other renewable sources. For now, wind power accounts for nearly 8 percent of electricity supply. Solar makes up just 0.5 percent but is growing at an impressive clip. Bolsonaro\u2019s campaign website proposed speeding up environmental licensing for small-scale hydroelectric plants and developing a local industry to produce, install, and maintain solar panels in the country\u2019s impoverished northeast, which is home to abundant solar and wind resources. However, the new president himself has scarcely addressed the issue in public remarks, and it\u2019s unclear that renewable energy will be a priority for his government.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, as the largest car market in Latin America\u2014it accounts for over half the region\u2019s vehicle sales\u2014Brazil also needs to build on advances in reducing transport sector emissions. It is already the world\u2019s second-largest biofuels producer, and it has the largest market of flex-fuel vehicles, which can run on pure ethanol. The RenovaBio program, launched by the government in 2017, aims to reduce the carbon intensity of gasoline by 10 percent by 2028. The program will do this by introducing carbon savings credits that incentivize fuel distributors to blend their products with more biofuels. The aim is to gradually increase the share of biofuels in Brazil\u2019s total fuel supply from 20 percent to nearly 30 percent. Since the election last October, Bolsonaro has expressed his support for Brazil\u2019s biofuels sector, a stance consistent with his close ties to agricultural interests. Thus biofuels are one point where agricultural and environmental interests converge, a political opportunity that Bolsonaro could seize.<\/span><\/p>\n The country also has a nascent but promising electric vehicles market. Electric vehicles improve local air quality and, when charged with renewable electricity, produce zero emissions\u2014something biofuel cars cannot achieve. S\u00e3o Paulo and nearby Campinas have been regional leaders in launching public fleets of electric buses, which are estimated to be less expensive over their lifetime than conventional buses because of lower fuel and maintenance costs. There is potential for a new local industry, too. For now, few electric vehicles are made in Brazil. But in 2015, the Chinese car and bus manufacturer BYD opened its first Latin American factory in Campinas to make buses, and the company is expected to begin manufacturing electric vehicle battery cells in Amazonas state using locally sourced lithium by the end of the year. This development demonstrates how promoting clean transport policies can also create jobs and boost economic development, something that may well appeal to Bolsonaro.<\/p>\n