{"id":6281,"date":"2019-02-14T22:32:19","date_gmt":"2019-02-15T06:32:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=6281"},"modified":"2019-02-15T05:04:43","modified_gmt":"2019-02-15T13:04:43","slug":"post3-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=6281","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Why EU leaders are not ready to budge on Brexit&#8221;, BBC News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Katya Adler, 14 February 2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"story-body__introduction\">&#8220;Has the prime minister&#8217;s new defeat in parliament made the EU more likely to compromise?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ve been asked over and again on BBC programmes following <a class=\"story-body__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-politics-47245992\">Thursday&#8217;s vote on Theresa May&#8217;s Brexit strategy.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>In a word: no.<\/p>\n<p>I understand the logic of the question: Brussels can clearly see the prime minister struggling at home.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately the EU wants a deal, so wouldn&#8217;t it make sense to give her a helping hand now?<\/p>\n<p>Well, not to the EU.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"story-body__unordered-list\">\n<li class=\"story-body__list-item\"><a class=\"story-body__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-46318565\">Brexit: A really simple guide<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"story-body__list-item\"><a class=\"story-body__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-46064836\">Deal or no deal &#8211; how are EU countries preparing?<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"story-body__list-item\"><a class=\"story-body__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-46617152\">EU reveals no-deal Brexit plans<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>One Brussels official told me Thursday&#8217;s vote convinced the EU more than ever that before they contemplated changes to the Brexit deal, they would need to see evidence of a comfortable majority of MPs solidly behind Theresa May.<\/p>\n<p>Otherwise, the fear is that the EU would give ground for nothing.<\/p>\n<p>If Brexit and party divisions run so deep amongst MPs, so the theory here goes, there would be a risk of Theresa May turning to Brussels every week or so, asking for &#8220;a bit more&#8221; and then another bit more &#8211; in order to keep restless MPs onside until 29 March.<\/p>\n<p>After all, in these politically dramatic times in the UK &#8211; a lot can change in very few weeks.<\/p>\n<p>EU diplomats tell me they hear the hype: the political claims and counter-claims amongst political factions in the UK; they see letters exchanged between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, threats of mass resignations and dreams of cross-party compromise but no evidence, EU contacts say, of a solution &#8220;that will fly&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>So for now, EU leaders still believe this is not the time to budge.<\/p>\n<p>They see the UK arguing, debating and negotiating with itself again &#8211; as it has done so often during the Brexit process &#8211; rather than engaging with Brussels.<\/p>\n<p>As a result of all this, the new round of EU-UK negotiations are going nowhere fast.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Window-dressing&#8221; is how one senior EU figure described the talks to me &#8211; with each side simply repeating their red lines to the other.<\/p>\n<p>So, the current favourite prediction in Brussels is that things will only be resolved in March.<\/p>\n<p>Probably with backs against the wall at the summit of EU leaders in Brussels on 21 March &#8211; eight days away from B-day.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"story-body__unordered-list\">\n<li class=\"story-body__list-item\"><a class=\"story-body__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-northern-ireland-47110707\">New ideas for the Brexit border backstop<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And why then?<\/p>\n<p>Because interestingly for those who believe the EU hands too much power to Brussels bureaucrats, the only ones who can change the content of the Brexit deal &#8211; signed off by the 27 EU leaders plus Theresa May back in November &#8211; are those 27 EU leaders plus Theresa May &#8211; not Jean Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk or any other &#8220;Brussels bureaucrat&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Even well-seasoned EU officials don&#8217;t want to predict with any certainty what may happen if 21 March turns into a showdown Brexit summit.<\/p>\n<p>Being within touching distance of a no-deal Brexit which the EU is convinced would be nightmarish, would certainly focus minds, as well as possibly kick-start the famous EU ten-to-midnight, deal-making tendency.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Who knows what decisions EU leaders might take if faced with an imminent no-deal?&#8221; one senior source told me.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;But it&#8217;s worth saying that up until now in the Brexit process, it&#8217;s been the EU leaders taking the hard line in negotiations, not Brussels officials.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Preferable for the EU would be Theresa May agreeing last minute to a permanent customs union, allowing the EU to dramatically change conditions around the backstop.<\/p>\n<p>Deal done. Brexit over. Allowing both sides to start talks on what really matters to them: the post-Brexit EU-UK trade deal.<\/p>\n<div class=\"story-body\">\n<div class=\"story-body__inner\">\n<p>But there&#8217;s a big risk. That at such a last-minute summit, either Theresa May or EU leaders would not blink enough to get the deal over the line.<\/p>\n<p>One EU official insisted the bloc wasn&#8217;t being &#8220;macho&#8221; about not &#8220;giving in&#8221; to the UK &#8211; but rather they needed to see a sustainable solution for everyone involved.<\/p>\n<p>Translation: don&#8217;t expect the EU to act against its own interest.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We see Theresa May trying to blackmail three groups to get this deal passed,&#8221; he told me &#8220;The EU and particularly Ireland, Labour Party MPs and Brexiteers.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The chance of this ending badly &#8211; with no deal at all &#8211; is uncomfortably high.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Which is why most people you speak to in Brussels think an extension to Article 50 &#8211; this Brexit negotiation process &#8211; is almost inevitable. Though there&#8217;s little EU enthusiasm for it.<\/p>\n<p>Frustration and despondency with the Brexit process is widespread, and EU leaders (think Spain with the Catalan issue and wobbly minority government, France with the &#8220;yellow vest&#8221; protest movement; Italy in recession again and with its infighting coalition government) face other dilemmas screaming for their attention.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-47247991\">BBC News<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Katya Adler, 14 February 2019 &#8220;Has the prime minister&#8217;s new defeat in parliament made the EU more likely to compromise?&#8221; I&#8217;ve been asked over and again on BBC programmes following Thursday&#8217;s vote on Theresa May&#8217;s Brexit strategy. In a word: no. I understand the logic of the question: Brussels can clearly see the prime minister [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1001004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6281"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1001004"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6281"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6281\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6293,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6281\/revisions\/6293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}