Chemi Shalev, Analysis, Tel Aviv, Apr 10, 2019<\/p>\n
1. <\/strong>Based on initial exit polls, both Benny Gantz and Benjamin Netanyahu can point to historic achievements in Tuesday\u2019s election. Gantz came out of nowhere and within a few short months set up a political party that is now inches away from power. Netanyahu overcame natural fatigue from his decade in power, three criminal indictments, a looming submarine scandal and the wholesale enlistment of his rivals. Although the jury is still out, the exit polls indicate that Netanyahu is within striking distance of a fourth straight term in office, during which he will pass David Ben-Gurion on the way to become Israel\u2019s longest ruling prime minister.<\/p>\n 2. <\/strong>The overall appraisal of the results is in the eyes of the beholder. Those who view the Israeli public as inherently right wing can view Gantz<\/a>\u2019s achievements as spectacular. Those who maintain that a prime minister wallowing in a can of worms such as Netanyahu<\/a>would have crashed and burned in in any normal country, will concede that public opinion is, indeed, in the right\u2019s pocket and could very well stay there forever.<\/p>\n Israel election 2019: Contradictory exit polls show Gantz, Netanyahu tied, but numbers favor right-wing coalition<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n 3. <\/strong>Israel\u2019s election procedures have given rise to the clich\u00e9 \u201cwaiting for the seamen\u2019s vote,\u201d which is equivalent more or less to \u201cIt ain\u2019t over till it\u2019s over.\u201d With several parties hovering around the 3.25 percent electoral threshold, the final outcome will likely be decided by the 300,000 Israelis who vote in \u201cdouble envelopes\u201d and whose votes are counted only after Election Day. These include soldiers, diplomats, the few Israeli seamen that still exist, as well as those in hospitals and mental institutions. Some people might find it apt that the latter group might decide the outcome of what many describe as the looniest election campaign ever.<\/p>\n 4. <\/strong>In its final weeks, the campaign was influenced by differing views on the crucial legal-constitutional question concerning the degree of leeway that President Reuven Rivlin<\/a> has in picking the politician who will get first crack at forming a new government. Those who swear by the bloc maintain Rivlin must pick the Knesset<\/a> member who is recommended by most of his peers. Those loyal to the party insist Rivlin must choose the leader of the party that gained the most seats. If the final results indicate that Gantz\u2019s Kahol Lavan gained more seats but Netanyahu has more recommenders, Rivlin could legitimately decide in either direction. Given the tense relations between the two, Rivlin is sure to make Netanyahu sweat before indicating how he\u2019ll proceed.<\/p>\n 5. <\/strong>Regrettably, for Gantz the celebrations in his camp on Tuesday night sparked a sense of d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu to the 2009 elections. Tzipi Livni<\/a>also proclaimed victory with a one-seat advantage of her Kadima over Likud<\/a>, but by then Netanyahu had already secured enough pledges of support to block her way. Shimon Peres<\/a> then supplied the precedent that will now be embraced by Netanyahu and Co. as holy writ: Despite his personal preference, Peres skipped over Livni and picked Netanyahu to form the next government.<\/p>\n 6. <\/strong>Similarly, within minutes of the publication of exit polls, Netanyahu was working feverishly on extracting vows of support from his natural allies on the right. His first aim is to force Rivlin\u2019s hand. His second would have been to gain leverage in advance of what many observers now see as inevitable\u00a0\u2014 a broad-based government with Gantz. Netanyahu\u2019s supreme goal, however, is averting the long arm of the law<\/a>, by hook and by crook if necessary. Only a narrow right-wing coalition can answer his wishes, and only if he agrees in return to undermine Israeli democracy and scuttle any remaining chances for a peace deal with the\u00a0Palestinians<\/a>.<\/p>\n