Aaron David Miller, Opinion contributor, June 17, 2019<\/p>\n
At minimum, Iran and America badly need a hotline to deconflict their military forces and avert a serious escalation. But that has been rejected before.<\/em><\/p>\n Tensions in the volatile U.S.-Iran relationship are increasing, and the two sides are ever closer to the possibility of a direct military confrontation since President Donald Trump condemned\u00a0what was almost certainly an Iranian mine attack<\/a> disabling two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week.\u00a0A serious and sustained conflict isn\u2019t inevitable, but the odds have increased<\/a>.<\/p>\n How did we get here and, more troubling, exactly where are we going? Amidst all the hype, spin and storytelling from both sides, here are some harsh\u00a0truths about the Trump\u00a0administration and its Iranian adversaries.<\/p>\n The Iranian regime is authoritarian, ideological and repressive<\/a>,\u00a0a serial human rights abuser<\/a> and regional troublemaker. But we now find ourselves in a dangerous situation largely\u00a0as a result of a great unraveling begun by the Trump administration’s unilateral decision last year to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n The accord\u00a0\u2014 known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action<\/a> (JCPOA) \u2014 was flawed, to be sure, and didn\u2019t address Iran\u2019s aggressive regional behavior or its ballistic missile programs. Even so,\u00a0it was still a highly functional arms control agreement that imposed significant\u00a0constraints on\u00a0Iran’s nuclear program for at\u00a0least for a decade or more.<\/p>\n ‘Maximum pressure’ and no Plan B\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Campaigning hard against the agreement, candidate Trump vowed to renegotiate or leave what he deemed<\/a> the worst agreement ever negotiated. Then as president, he pulled out of the agreement and launched his\u00a0“maximum pressure<\/a>” campaign. The administration\u00a0reimposed\u00a0sanctions on banking and\u00a0petrochemicals and, in the past several months, has\u00a0made a major effort to reduce Iran’s\u00a0lifeblood \u2014 its oil exports \u2014\u00a0to zero. As intended, all\u00a0of this has wreaked havoc on the Iranian economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n Look to Reagan: <\/strong>On Iran tanker attack,\u00a0Donald Trump and\u00a0Mike Pompeo should follow his lead<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n Not surprisingly, the regime, which the Iranian foreign minister quipped had a Ph.D.\u00a0in sanctions busting<\/a>,\u00a0signaled through mine attacks on six oil tankers<\/a> in the past month that it had options, too. Within hours of Thursday’s attacks, oil prices spiked<\/a>. No matter how egregious the regime\u2019s behavior in other areas, pulling out of the JCPOA without a Plan B other than “maximum pressure” has more than any other factor brought us where we are today.<\/p>\n Tensions rising but caution on both sides<\/strong><\/p>\n