{"id":7529,"date":"2019-06-26T23:58:24","date_gmt":"2019-06-27T06:58:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=7529"},"modified":"2019-06-27T01:27:15","modified_gmt":"2019-06-27T08:27:15","slug":"post2-53","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=7529","title":{"rendered":"“No matter who gets into No 10, their Brexit plans are fantasy”, The Guardian"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gina Miller, Opinion, London, 27 Jun 2019<\/p>\n

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt claim the backstop problems can be fixed by 31 October. They are in for a rude awakening<\/em><\/p>\n

As commentators line up to debate the character and personality traits of the two men running for the Tory leadership \u2013 and by default our prime minister \u2013 there is only one question on my mind: how credible are the details of how and when they can deliver or resolve Brexit<\/a>?<\/p>\n

This does not appear to be a question 84% of Conservative party members<\/a>are remotely bothered with, as they would prefer the fantasy of an immediate \u201cclean Brexit<\/a>\u201d. They welcome their witching hour of 11pm on 31 October becoming Independence Day, as if it\u2019s some sort of Hollywood blockbuster, with no deal.<\/p>\n

If only will was reality. There is a raft of legislation required even in a no-deal scenario \u2013 for example bills on agriculture, fisheries, financial services, trade and immigration. So, too, the vexed question of the Irish border. Boris Johnson, like an overexcited puppy when interviewed<\/a> by the BBC\u2019s Laura Kuenssberg this week, grabbed this bone and enthused about \u201cabundant, abundant technical fixes that can be introduced to make sure that you don\u2019t have to have checks at the border\u201d. Johnson is not one to worry about details, given the fact that in January Sabine Weyand, the EU\u2019s deputy negotiator, said: \u201cWe\u2019ve looked at every border on this Earth, every border the EU has with a third country \u2013 there\u2019s simply no way<\/a> you can do away with checks and controls.\u201d<\/p>\n

Then there is the clause in the European Union<\/a> (Withdrawal) Act 2018. Section 10, on the subject of the Irish border, states that nothing in this act \u201cauthorises regulations which \u2026 diminish any form of North-South cooperation provided for by the Belfast agreement\u201d. This is likely to mean that the Northern Ireland backstop will stay in place until MPs reach an agreement that honours the UK\u2019s obligations under the Good Friday agreement.<\/p>\n

I can hear the naysayers now \u2013 we are Great Britain, we can leave with a clean Brexit and a smooth transition to World Trade Organization (WTO) terms under which the rest of the world trades. Yes, Britain is a signatory to the WTO in its own right \u2013 but there are no WTO terms that apply specifically to the UK, as we have been operating under the EU\u2019s umbrella for decades.<\/p>\n

To deal directly under WTO terms<\/a> will require us to have something called a schedule of tariffs, which applies tariffs to all imports into a country as well as quotas for a certain amount of tariff-free goods. Brexiteers such as Bernard Jenkin MP say we can simply rely on \u201cdefault terms\u201d or the EU\u2019s schedule of tariffs. But that suggestion has already, understandably, been blocked by many of the 164 WTO members. Why would they allow the UK to take advantage of the negotiating position of a large global trading bloc such as the EU, when they themselves can\u2019t? Unless Britain can set up emergency cover by using the EU schedule or our own schedule without formal approval, we will enter uncharted territory on the morning of 1 November, as no deal means no transition period. Again, Johnson thinks this is \u201ctosh\u201d. He can magic this, too \u2013 an implementation period not attached to a withdrawal agreement, but agreed by the EU anyway \u2013 even though he has not spoken to a single person on the EU side about this.<\/p>\n

Johnson will say we can be like Australia or New Zealand or Norway, conveniently forgetting that Australia has trade agreements in place with more than 17 countries, including the US, China, Japan, Singapore and Malaysia, and deals with another 20 countries signed and in the pipeline.<\/p>\n