{"id":8572,"date":"2019-11-02T07:17:03","date_gmt":"2019-11-02T14:17:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=8572"},"modified":"2019-11-02T07:19:42","modified_gmt":"2019-11-02T14:19:42","slug":"impeachment-is-unpredictable-national-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=8572","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Impeachment Is Unpredictable&#8221;, National Review"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By Andrew C. McCarthy, November 2, 2019<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"article-header__subtitle\">We don\u2019t know what new revelations might emerge or whether they would unnerve the president\u2019s GOP support.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"drop\">Y<\/span>es, it already seems like two eternities ago. But do you realize that, if we could turn back time just five weeks, no one would have heard of the \u201cwhistleblower\u201d? Those of us who can find Ukraine on a map would be back to ignoring it \u2014 except to wonder when and why it stopped being<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><em>the<\/em><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>Ukraine. (It has to do with<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/magazine-18233844\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">breaking free of Soviet tyranny<\/a>, by the way.)<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--center ad-unit--inline\"><\/aside>\n<p>There is a lesson in there about unpredictability that the unpredictable Trump White House would do well to internalize.<\/p>\n<p>See, nobody knows for sure how impeachment proceedings will go. Of course, we have heard again and again over the last five weeks (or is it three years?) that it is inconceivable Donald Trump could ever be ousted from the presidency. His firewall against being stripped of power (and, his supporters hoped, against the House\u2019s even bothering to impeach him in the first place) has always been Republican control of the Senate, where a two-thirds supermajority is required to remove a president. Assuming all Democrats voted to convict on any article of impeachment, Trump would be assured of acquittal if he lost no more than 20 Republicans.<\/p>\n<p>Notice, though, that there\u2019s always been a caveat to such confident predictions: <em>As long as there is nothing other than what we already know about.<\/em><\/p>\n<figure class=\"inline-image inline-image--captioned \"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?fit=789%2C460&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 789px) 100vw, 789px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?w=2057&amp;ssl=1 2057w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=300%2C175&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=768%2C448&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=1024%2C597&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=459%2C268&amp;ssl=1 459w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=789%2C460&amp;ssl=1 789w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=987%2C576&amp;ssl=1 987w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=50%2C29&amp;ssl=1 50w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?w=2000&amp;ssl=1 2000w\" alt=\"\" width=\"789\" height=\"460\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?w=2057&amp;ssl=1 2057w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=300%2C175&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=768%2C448&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=1024%2C597&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=459%2C268&amp;ssl=1 459w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=789%2C460&amp;ssl=1 789w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=987%2C576&amp;ssl=1 987w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?resize=50%2C29&amp;ssl=1 50w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?w=2000&amp;ssl=1 2000w\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.nationalreview.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/nancy-pelosi-capitol-hill.jpg?fit=789%2C460&amp;ssl=1\" \/><figcaption>House Speaker House Nancy Pelosi speaks during a media briefing ahead of the House vote authorizing an impeachment inquiry into President Trump, October 31, 2019. <cite>(Joshua Roberts\/Reuters)<\/cite><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Well, to repeat, just five weeks ago, we were all still muttering about obstruction of the Mueller probe, after years of muttering about collusion with Russia. There was some other grousing: a little emoluments clause here, a few undisclosed tax returns there, the porn-star payoff dressed up (as it were) into a campaign-finance violation, etc. Until late September, no one had heard of what has consumed us ever since: the whistleblower, the Hunter Biden hijinks, Ambassador Bill Taylor, the hard-to-follow DNC-server conspiracy theory, Rudy Does Kyiv, and so on.<\/p>\n<p>NOW WATCH: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/videos\/republicans-ramp-up-attacks-on-impeachment-inquiry\/\">&#8216;Republicans Ramp Up Attacks On Impeachment Inquiry&#8217;<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Just six weeks ago, John Bolton was a disgruntled former national-security adviser Democrats loved to hate. Now, they\u2019re thinking of him as a witness for the prosecution.<\/p>\n<p>The point is that life around Hurricane Donald changes fast. Are you really so sure there\u2019s nothing else out there? After three years in which the script seems to flip every three hours or so?<\/p>\n<p>Impeachment is the unknown. Once the unwieldy, rarely used machinery is up and running, no one knows for sure how things will shake out. Richard Nixon won what was then the biggest landslide election in modern American history, yet after less than two years of impeachment hearings, he was too unpopular to survive. Bill Clinton\u2019s trysts with a White House intern were so appalling that, if acknowledged early on, he probably wouldn\u2019t have survived. Months of impeachment sniping ended up working to his advantage. Clearly, it makes a difference which way the media go \u2014 annihilation mode for Republicans, salvation mode for Democrats. But how much difference the Trump-hostile media will make depends on what else is out there.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--native ad-unit--ad-slot-rendered\">\n<div class=\"ad-unit__inner\"><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>We don\u2019t know that.<\/p>\n<p>We do know this: Once the impeachment train has groaned to a start and shaken off the rust, its momentum tends to carry Congress away. It was obvious that Clinton was not going to be removed, but in their fervor House Republicans impeached him anyway. In Trump\u2019s case, Speaker Nancy Pelosi started out as an impeachment naysayer, and now she\u2019s leading the charge \u2014 to the delight of the Democrats\u2019 base, who\u2019ve similarly spurred the 2020 primary field to impeachment fervor. The country, of course, is not made up of hard-left Trump-bashers, so smart Democrats know impeachment could blow up on them. Yet, it\u2019s full speed ahead nonetheless. It\u2019s hard to stop this thing once it gets rolling.<\/p>\n<p>At this juncture, articles of impeachment based on the Ukraine scenario appear certain. There will be at least one charge of abusing the president\u2019s foreign-relations power by encouraging a foreign government to investigate American citizens (the Bidens) for violations of the foreign government\u2019s laws. A second article will likely allege that the president engaged in that abuse of power to further another one \u2014 specifically, to have the 2020 election influenced by the foreign power. Perhaps there will be an allegation that the president \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/2019\/10\/quid-pro-quo-and-extortion-welcome-to-foreign-relations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">extorted<\/a>\u201d Ukraine, or in effect sought a \u201cbribe,\u201d by withholding vital defense aid to squeeze Kyiv into probing the Bidens. Almost certainly, there will be a charge of obstructing Congress\u2019s investigation \u2014 for Democrats, it will be more effective to impeach Trump for failing to turn the over scads of information they will demand than to fight the president\u2019s privilege claims in court, where Democrats could lose.<\/p>\n<p>If the articles of impeachment are as just outlined, they would not move Senate Republicans toward removal. This is big wind, no rain. No matter what the president may have contemplated, nothing terrible actually happened. The Ukrainians got their aid. They did not have to commit to investigating the Bidens. And if this escapade has any discernible effect on the 2020 election, it will likely be to Trump\u2019s detriment, not the Democrats\u2019. Sure, Joe Biden\u2019s candidacy takes a hit, but that was going to happen anyway \u2014 which is why Democrats have not shied from an impeachment push in which, inevitably, the former vice president becomes collateral damage.<\/p>\n<p>But then again, we don\u2019t know if this is all there is.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats had their whistleblower held in reserve for a while before they decided it was time to pounce. Are they holding anything else? And whether they\u2019re holding it or not, <em>is there anything else?<\/em> As we\u2019ve seen, Trump is unorthodox (how\u2019s that for euphemism?). His irregular behavior does not have to be materially damaging for Democrats and the press to portray it as the end of the Republic as we know it (see, e.g., Collusion, Russia).<\/p>\n<p>In the past, when new revelations have emerged, it has made no difference \u2014 just another day in the Trump presidency. But now things have changed. Any new misconduct claims will unfold while congressional Democrats have impeachment proceedings up and running. That could make things dicey.<\/p>\n<p>While congressional Republicans will stand with the president for now, there is no shortage of those who are not fans. Trump saw how fast his support can evaporate when he moved a few dozen U.S. troops out of harm\u2019s way before Turkey rolled in and over the Syrian Kurds: The House condemned him in an overwhelming bipartisan resolution; the Republican majority leader of the Senate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/mitch-mcconnell-withdrawing-from-syria-is-a-grave-mistake\/2019\/10\/18\/c0a811a8-f1cd-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">took to the pages of the <em>Washington Post<\/em><\/a> to rebuke him; and the rest of the senators are pondering sanctions against Turkey to express their dismay.<\/p>\n<p>If some new allegation of misconduct were to emerge while Democrats have an impeachment inquiry underway, we do not know whether that would unnerve the president\u2019s GOP support. We are in territory rarely charted. People who claim to sure how the journey will go are kidding themselves.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/2019\/11\/trump-impeachment-inquiry-unpredictable\/\">National Review<\/a><\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--native\">\n<div class=\"ad-unit__inner\"><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<div class=\"jwplayer-inline\" data-component=\"jwplayerInline\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Andrew C. McCarthy, November 2, 2019 We don\u2019t know what new revelations might emerge or whether they would unnerve the president\u2019s GOP support. Yes, it already seems like two eternities ago. But do you realize that, if we could turn back time just five weeks, no one would have heard of the \u201cwhistleblower\u201d? Those [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1001004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8572"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1001004"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8572"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8572\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8575,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8572\/revisions\/8575"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8572"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8572"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8572"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}