{"id":8787,"date":"2019-12-11T23:41:05","date_gmt":"2019-12-12T07:41:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=8787"},"modified":"2019-12-12T03:44:49","modified_gmt":"2019-12-12T11:44:49","slug":"post1-76","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=8787","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;The Man Who Predicted Nazi Germany&#8221;, The New York Times"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fullBleedHeaderContent\">\n<div class=\"css-tdubhs e1xwzt921\">\n<div class=\"css-18e8msd epjyd6m0\">\n<div class=\"css-vp77d3 epjyd6m2\">\n<div class=\"css-1baulvz\">\n<p class=\"css-1fv7b6t e1jsehar1\">By <span class=\"css-1baulvz last-byline\">Jonathan Kirshner, Sunday Review, Dec. 8, 2019<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"css-qsaw8 e1wtpvyy0\">\n<p class=\"css-ri4qrz e1wtpvyy1\">Dr. Kirshner is a professor of political science at Boston College.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-ri4qrz e1wtpvyy1\"><em>In 1919, John Maynard Keynes foresaw the chaos that would follow from the Versailles peace treaty.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"meteredContent css-1r7ky0e\">\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">On Dec. 8, 1919, Macmillan Press published a book by a relatively obscure British Treasury official who had resigned from the government in protest over the Versailles treaty that brought the epochal trauma of the First World War to its conclusion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">The small treatise, the official wrote, sought to explain \u201cthe grounds of his objection to the treaty, or rather to the whole policy of the conference towards the economic problems of Europe.\u201d A conservative print of 5,000 copies seemed right for a technocrat\u2019s dissent, which featured meticulously detailed passages that pored over the history and prospects of things like Germany\u2019s coal production and export markets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">The book, \u201cThe Economic Consequences of the Peace,\u201d turned out to be a phenomenon. It swiftly went through six printings, was translated into a dozen languages, sold over 100,000 copies, and brought world fame to its 36-year-old author, John Maynard Keynes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">A brilliant and indefatigable scholar, public intellectual, journalist, government adviser and champion of the arts, Keynes would be at the center of things for the balance of his life. The Keynesian revolution reinvented economics in the 1930s, and continues to shape the field today. Keynes, again representing the British Treasury during World War II, was the principal intellectual architect of postwar international order. But he began his career in dissent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Keynes\u2019s book is essentially correct with regard to its most important arguments. But it was, and remains today, largely misunderstood.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">\u201cEconomic Consequences\u201d is majestically written \u2014 Keynes was close to the iconoclastic Bloomsbury cohort of artists and writers, and his incisive, candid portrayals of the peacemakers (Georges Clemenceau, David Lloyd George and Woodrow Wilson) reflected the no-holds-barred influence of Lytton Strachey\u2019s recently celebrated \u201cEminent Victorians.\u201d The book was also wildly controversial for its assessments of the capacity of Germany to pay the reparations demanded by the victorious Allied powers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\">\n<div class=\"css-ke163a\" data-testid=\"article-companion-wrapper\">\n<div id=\"newsletter-module\" class=\"css-48vsi0\">\n<div class=\"css-1k9ek97\">\n<div class=\"css-tjpxhb\">\n<div class=\"css-sefkcv\">\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Keynes\u2019s book is essentially correct with regard to its most important arguments. But it was, and remains today, largely misunderstood. The enduring contributions of the book are to be found not in Keynes\u2019 first dissenting clause (his \u201cobjection the treaty\u201d), but in the second, about \u201cthe economic problems of Europe.\u201d Keynes was sounding an alarm about the fragility of the European order.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Keynes argued that while many Europeans were celebrating a new era in the continent\u2019s economy, too much of what emerged from the war rested on longstanding, underappreciated and elaborately enmeshed networks and foundations. \u201cUnstable elements, already present when war broke out,\u201d he wrote, had been obliterated by years of total war \u2014 but then not replaced with something more stable. Reconstituting the general economic order, not exacting shortsighted retribution, was the imperative of the day. This, he believed, was the critical failure of the \u201cpeace\u201d \u2014 not just Versailles, but the entire political and economic framework in which it was written.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">And so when economists and historians, then and ever since, zeroed in on questions about, say, whether Keynes underestimated Germany\u2019s capacity to pay its war reparations \u2014 they miss the larger point. Keynes could have surely been wrong. But his arguments about the crisis facing Europe, and about what the treaty failed to do, were exactly right.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Keynes recognized that the war had \u201cso shaken this system as to endanger the life of Europe altogether.\u201d But the treaty \u201cincludes no provisions for the economic rehabilitation of Europe \u2014 nothing to make the defeated Central empires into good neighbors, nothing to stabilize the new states of Europe,\u201d nothing to restore \u201cthe disordered finances of France and Italy.\u201d Forcing Germany into, essentially, servitude, he argued, \u201cwill sow the decay of the whole of civilized life of Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Keynes was well positioned to grasp the severity of this most perilous macroeconomic muddle. At the Treasury during the war, he had the task of larder of British finance to keep the war effort afloat. At the Paris Peace Conference he was the official representative of the Treasury; in addition, as the responsibilities of chancellor of the Exchequer, <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/biography\/Austen-Chamberlain\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Austen Chamberlain<\/a>, required him to stay in Britain, Keynes was deputized to represent him on the Supreme Economic Council.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Arriving in Paris on Jan. 10, he was quickly thrown into the maelstrom. Dispatched to meet with German financiers, the young Treasury man negotiated the terms of an emergency shipment of food to Germany, then on the brink of mass starvation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Keynes would later describe those events in one of his finest long-form essays, \u201cDr. Melchior: A Defeated Enemy,\u201d which he first read over two meetings in the privacy of the Memoir Club of Cambridge and Bloomsbury intimates. Virginia Woolf returned home from the second gathering and wrote an effusive note singing its literary praises; it was one of two brilliant works (\u201cMy Early Beliefs\u201d was the other) that Keynes requested to be published posthumously.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">His scene-setting has a cinematic quality:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"css-scfbvi etf134l0\">\n<p class=\"css-ma92ss evys1bk0\">A moment later we were called back to our saloon, since the German financiers were announced. The railway carriage was small, and both we and they were numerous. How were we to behave? Ought we to shake hands? We crushed together at one end of the carriage with a small bridge-table between us and the enemy. They pressed into the carriage, bowing stiffly. We bowed stiffly also, for some of us had never bowed before. We nervously made a movement as though to shake hands and then didn\u2019t. I asked them, in a voice intended to be agreeable, if they all spoke English.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">With some inspired back-channel improvisation, Keynes brought these modest, prefatory negotiations to a successful conclusion. The broader peace process, however, was a catastrophe \u2014 and Keynes had a front-row seat.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">As the historian Eric Weitz described, German representatives reacted \u201cwith stunned disbelief\u201d at the terms presented to them; when the details became public back home, the reaction was shock and anger. The two sides had bled each other white during the war, fighting to a stalemate until the late entry of the distant United States decisively tipped the balance of power. Germany, with no foreign troops on its soil, imagined it was bargaining for the loser\u2019s share of a negotiated peace, not submitting to what amounted to unconditional surrender: colonies stripped, territory lost, navy sunk, army disbanded, reparations imposed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Keynes, as he would write in \u201cEconomic Consequences\u201d and emphasize repeatedly in the wake of its publication, was concerned \u201cnot with the justice of the treaty,\u201d but with its \u201cwisdom and with its consequences.\u201d Behind the scenes, he fought for a more farsighted approach.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">A flickering moment in April saw hope that his \u201cgrand scheme\u201d might be embraced: modest reparations (with Britain\u2019s share ceded to other victims of German aggression), cancellation of all inter-Allied war debts (America would bear the brunt of that burden), the establishment of a European free trade zone (to sidestep likely chaos in international commerce from the confused patchwork of new nations emerging in the east), and a new international loan to nurse the continent through a difficult period of economic disequilibrium.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">This bordered on political na\u00efvet\u00e9: The Americans would not easily part with their money, nor the French with their vengeance. And in the elections of 1918, British politicians had famously (if fatuously) promised to hold Germany accountable for the full cost of the war, one promising to squeeze the country like a lemon \u201cuntil the pips squeak.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">But for Keynes, the stakes were so high as to demand the effort. Historians have focused on his light-handed reparations proposal, but in the moment he was even more exercised over the issue of inter-Allied debts. Those obligations, he wrote in an internal Treasury brief, were \u201ca menace to financial stability everywhere,\u201d imposed a \u201ccrushing burden,\u201d and would be \u201ca constant source of international friction.\u201d An international financial order that was little more than a tangle of debts and reparations could hardly \u201clast a day.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">On May 14, 1919, he sent an anguished note to his mother, telling her of his plans to resign, but hung on, \u201cso sick at what goes on,\u201d for three more weeks. He submitted his formal letter of resignation to Prime Minister Lloyd George on June 5, returned home to lick his wounds, and then channeled his passions into writing \u201cEconomic Consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1m50asq\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2019\/12\/07\/opinion\/07kirschner2\/07kirschner2-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2019\/12\/07\/opinion\/07kirschner2\/07kirschner2-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 600w, https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2019\/12\/07\/opinion\/07kirschner2\/07kirschner2-jumbo.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 1024w, https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2019\/12\/07\/opinion\/07kirschner2\/07kirschner2-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 2048w\" alt=\"Allied treaty negotiators at Versailles, France, in 1919. Germans reacted with shock and anger at the terms of the treaty.\" \/><\/picture><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-79elbk\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"css-1a48zt4 ehw59r15\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure class=\"css-jcw7oy e1g7ppur0\"><figcaption class=\"css-1l44abu e1xdpqjp0\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\"><span class=\"css-16f3y1r e13ogyst0\">Allied treaty negotiators at Versailles, France, in 1919. Germans reacted with shock and anger at the terms of the treaty.<\/span><span class=\"css-cnj6d5 e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit&#8230;<\/span>Helen Johns Kirtland, via Library of Congress<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Keynes waged an intellectual campaign alongside his book, which, despite its runaway success, did little to influence the foreign policies of the relevant powers. Writing in the magazine Everybody\u2019s Monthly to an American audience, he echoed the arguments found on the first page of his book: \u201cGermany bears a special and peculiar responsibility for the war\u201d and \u201cfor its universal and devastating character.\u201d But the treaty \u201cleaves Europe more unsettled than it found it,\u201d and interest, not vengeance, must guide policy. It \u201cwill be a disaster for the world if America isolates herself,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"story-ad-4-wrapper\" class=\"css-1r07izm\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">In the preface to the French edition of the book he asked rhetorically, \u201cWill France be safe because her sentries stand on the Rhine\u201d yet \u201cbloodshed, misery and fanaticism prevail from the Rhine eastwards through two continents?\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Few listened. The Americans\u2019 brief flirtation with Wilsonian internationalism yielded to a resurgence of nationalism and nativism. Prioritizing domestic demands over global concerns, the United States stubbornly and shortsightedly added to Europe\u2019s economic woes with an unyielding stance on the question of war debts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">France sought to enforce the treaty as written, going so far as to occupy the Ruhr Valley region in January 1923, in response to Germany\u2019s failure to meet its reparation obligations. The occupation, which lasted two and a half years and was met with passive resistance and hyperinflation, seemed to prove Keynes\u2019s point.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">The balance of the 1920s limped along, with glimmers of progress and cooperation doing little to overcome the big problems Keynes had identified at the outset \u2014 fragile finances and political anxieties simmering just below the surface. One strong push would send it all tumbling down, and the 1931 global financial crisis, worsened by France\u2019s search for political advantage as Austria and Germany\u2019s banks teetered, did just that.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">As Keynes noted at the time, \u201cThe shattering German crisis of 1931, which took the world more by surprise than it should, was in essence a banking crisis, though precipitated, no doubt, by political events and political fears.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">Those politics meant that the crisis was not contained. It spiraled out of control, sending the world economy tumbling into the depths of the Great Depression, and contributing directly to the rise of fascism in Germany and Japan.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\">\u201cMen will not always die quietly,\u201d Keynes warned in \u201cThe Economic Consequences of the Peace,\u201d and \u201cin their distress may overturn the remnants of organization, and submerge civilization itself.\u201d A generation later, the American diplomat George F. Kennan would argue that the foreign policy horrors of the 1930s could be traced to the \u201clost opportunities\u201d of the 1920s. Keynes would surely have agreed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-exrw3m evys1bk0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/12\/07\/opinion\/keynes-economic-consequences-peace.html?action=click&amp;module=Opinion&amp;pgtype=Homepage\">The New York Times<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Jonathan Kirshner, Sunday Review, Dec. 8, 2019 Dr. Kirshner is a professor of political science at Boston College. In 1919, John Maynard Keynes foresaw the chaos that would follow from the Versailles peace treaty.\u00a0 On Dec. 8, 1919, Macmillan Press published a book by a relatively obscure British Treasury official who had resigned from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1001004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8787"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1001004"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8787"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8787\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8797,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8787\/revisions\/8797"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}