{"id":9878,"date":"2020-05-18T06:52:15","date_gmt":"2020-05-18T13:52:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=9878"},"modified":"2020-05-19T04:17:09","modified_gmt":"2020-05-19T11:17:09","slug":"forty-years-later-lessons-for-the-pandemic-from-mount-st-helens-the-new-york-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/?p=9878","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Forty Years Later, Lessons for the Pandemic From Mount St. Helens&#8221;, The New York Times"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By <span class=\"css-1baulvz last-byline\">Lawrence Roberts, Opinion, May 18, 2020<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>The tensions we now face between science, politics and economics also arose before the country\u2019s most destructive volcanic eruption.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div>\n<header class=\"css-144n2m euiyums2\">\n<div class=\"css-79elbk\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"css-1a48zt4 ehw59r15\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure class=\"sizeMedium layoutVertical css-1ox9jel\">\n<div class=\"css-bsn42l\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-11cwn6f\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts1\/merlin_65294003_88bd9da8-cd18-4d8c-8868-5bfefd796be6-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts1\/merlin_65294003_88bd9da8-cd18-4d8c-8868-5bfefd796be6-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 600w, https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts1\/merlin_65294003_88bd9da8-cd18-4d8c-8868-5bfefd796be6-jumbo.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 994w, https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts1\/merlin_65294003_88bd9da8-cd18-4d8c-8868-5bfefd796be6-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 1987w\" alt=\"Mount St. Helens erupted on May 18, 1980.\" \/><\/picture><\/div><figcaption class=\"css-17ai7jg e18f7pbr0\"><span class=\"css-16f3y1r e13ogyst0\">Mount St. Helens erupted on May 18, 1980.<\/span><span class=\"css-cnj6d5 e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit&#8230;<\/span>United Press International<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"meteredContent css-1r7ky0e\">\n<div id=\"NYT_ABOVE_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">When I met David A. Johnston, it was on a spring evening, about a month before he would be erased from existence by a gigantic cloud of volcanic ash boiling over him at <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fs.usda.gov\/pnw\/page\/mount-st-helens-frequently-asked-questions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">300 miles per hour<\/a>. He was coming through the door of a makeshift command center in Vancouver, Wash., the closest city to the graceful snow-capped dome of Mount St. Helens, a volcano that had been dormant for <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/volcanoes.usgs.gov\/observatories\/cvo\/Historical\/LewisClark\/Info\/summary_mount_st_helens.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">123 years<\/a>. This was April 1980, and Mr. Johnston, a 30-year-old geologist, was one of the first scientists summoned to monitor new warning signs from the mountain \u2014 shallow earthquakes and periodic bursts of ash and steam.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">As a young reporter I had talked my way into the command center. At first Mr. Johnston was wary; he wasn\u2019t supposed to meet the press anymore. His supervisors had played down the chance that the smoking mountain was about to explode, and they had already reprimanded him for suggesting otherwise. But on this night he\u2019d just been setting measuring equipment deep in the surrounding forest, and his runner-thin frame vibrated with excitement, his face flushed under his blond beard, and Mr. Johnston couldn\u2019t help riffing on the likelihood of a cataclysmic event.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">\u201cMy feeling is when it goes, it\u2019s going to go just like that,\u201d he told me, snapping his fingers. \u201cBang!\u201d At best, he said, we\u2019d have a couple of hours of warning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"story-ad-1-wrapper\" class=\"css-1r07izm\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">Mr. Johnston was mostly right. Early on a Sunday morning several weeks later, the mountain did blow, in <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ngdc.noaa.gov\/hazard\/stratoguide\/helenfact.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the most destructive eruption<\/a> in U.S. history. But there was no warning. At his instrument outpost, on a ridge more than five miles from the summit, Mr. Johnston had only seconds to radio in a last message: \u201cVancouver! Vancouver! This is it!\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-8h527k\">\n<div data-testid=\"lazyimage-container\"><picture class=\"css-1j5kxti\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts2\/merlin_11403933_d6fee552-887d-420e-b738-27e06846604b-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=600\" media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 3dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 288dpi)\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts2\/merlin_11403933_d6fee552-887d-420e-b738-27e06846604b-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1200\" media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 2dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts2\/merlin_11403933_d6fee552-887d-420e-b738-27e06846604b-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale&amp;width=1800\" media=\"(max-width: 599px) and (min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 1dppx),(max-width: 599px) and (min-resolution: 96dpi)\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1m50asq\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts2\/merlin_11403933_d6fee552-887d-420e-b738-27e06846604b-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" sizes=\"50vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts2\/merlin_11403933_d6fee552-887d-420e-b738-27e06846604b-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 600w, https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts2\/merlin_11403933_d6fee552-887d-420e-b738-27e06846604b-jumbo.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 681w, https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/17roberts2\/merlin_11403933_d6fee552-887d-420e-b738-27e06846604b-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 1330w\" alt=\"A photograph of David Johnston, who was killed when Mount St. Helens erupted.\" \/><\/picture><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<div class=\"css-79elbk\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"css-1a48zt4 ehw59r15\" data-testid=\"photoviewer-children\">\n<figure class=\"css-1m53jiu e1g7ppur0\"><figcaption class=\"css-1e7005o ewdxa0s0\"><span class=\"css-16f3y1r e13ogyst0\">A photograph of David Johnston, who was killed when Mount St. Helens erupted.<\/span><span class=\"css-cnj6d5 e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit&#8230;<\/span>Chris Sweda\/Daily Southtown, via Associated Press<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\">\n<div id=\"c-col-editors-picks\" class=\"css-j64t31\"><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">Monday, May 18, marks the 40th anniversary of the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption, and as we now face our own struggle to gauge the uncertain risks presented by nature, to predict how bad things will get and how much and how long to protect ourselves, it may be useful to revisit the tension back then between science, politics and economics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">The drama played out on a much smaller stage \u2014 one region of one state, instead of the whole planet \u2014 but many of the same elements were present: Scientists provided a range of educated guesses, and public officials split on how to respond. Business owners and residents chafed at the restrictions put in place, many flouted them, and a few even threatened armed rebellion. In the end, the government mostly accepted the analyses of Mr. Johnston and his fellow geologists. As a result, while the eruption <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"http:\/\/volcano.oregonstate.edu\/what-were-effects-people-when-mt-st-helens-erupted\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">killed 57 people<\/a>and flattened hundreds of square miles of dense Pacific Northwest forestland, the lives of hundreds, perhaps thousands, were spared.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">At the first warning signs, state and federal officials moved to distance people from the mountain. They sought to block nonessential visitors from nearby Spirit Lake, ringed with scout camps and tourist lodges. Other than loggers, few people hung around the peak year-round, but the population surged in late spring and summer, when thousands hiked, camped and moved into vacation homes. Many regulars dismissed the risk. Slipping past roadblocks became a popular activity. Locals sold maps to sightseers and amateur photographers that showed how to take old logging roads up the mountain. The owner of a nearby general store shared a common opinion of the threat: \u201cIt\u2019s just plain bull. I lived here 26 years, and nothing like this happened before.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">Like the probability of a pandemic, though, it was well-established that one of the <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/volcanoes.usgs.gov\/observatories\/cvo\/cascade_volcanoes.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">dozen or so volcanoes<\/a> in the 800-mile Cascade Range might soon turn active. Averaging two eruptions a century, they were overdue. A 1978 report by the U.S. Geological Survey, where Mr. Johnston worked, identified Mount St. Helens as most likely to blow next. Yet forecasting how big the event could be was a matter of art as well as science. Geologists could model only previous explosions and list the possible outcomes. (\u201cThat position was difficult for many to accept, because they believed we could and should make predictions,\u201d a <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/pubs.usgs.gov\/pp\/1250\/report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">U.S.G.S. report<\/a> said later.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">Some scientists suggested a much larger evacuation, but uncertainty, a hallmark of their discipline, can be difficult for those making real-time public policy. The guidelines from federal and state representatives camped out in Vancouver, and from Washington\u2019s governor, Dixy Lee Ray, often seemed in conflict. Moreover, the Weyerhaeuser Company, which owned tens of thousands of acres of timber, opposed logging restrictions, even as some crews got nervous about working near the rumbling dome.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">By mid-April, a bulge grew on the north flank, a clue that highly pressurized magma was trapped and expanding. If it burst, a landslide might bury Spirit Lake. The governor, a conservative Democrat who was a biologist by training, finally agreed to stronger measures. She ordered an inner \u201cred zone\u201d where only scientists and law enforcement personnel could enter, and a \u201cblue zone\u201d open to loggers and property owners with day passes. If the zones didn\u2019t extend as far as many geologists hoped, they were certainly an improvement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">Then the mountain got deceptively quiet. The curve of seismic activity flattened and turned downward. Many grew complacent, and restless. On Saturday, May 17, people with property inside the red zone massed in cars and pickup trucks at the roadblock on State Highway 504. Hearing rumors that some carried rifles, the governor relented, allowing them through, with a police escort, to check on their homes and leave again. The state patrol chief, Robert Landon, told them, \u201cWe hope the good Lord will keep that mountain from giving us any trouble.\u201d The property owners vowed to return the next day.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">The next day was Sunday. At <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/volcanoes.usgs.gov\/volcanoes\/st_helens\/st_helens_geo_hist_99.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">8:32 a.m.<\/a>, a powerful quake shook loose the snow-covered north face of Mount St. Helens, releasing the superheated magma, which roared out of the mountain in a lateral blast faster than a bullet train, over the spot where Mr. Johnston stood, mowing down 230 square miles of trees, hurling trunks into the air like twigs. It rained down a suffocating storm of thick gray ash, \u201ca burning sky-river wind of searing lava droplet hail,\u201d as the poet Gary Snyder described it. Mudflows clogged the river valleys, setting off deadly floods. A column of ash soared 15 miles high and bloomed into a mushroom cloud 35 miles wide. Over two weeks, <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/faqs\/how-far-did-ash-mount-st-helens-travel?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ash would circle<\/a> the globe. <a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/tdn.com\/news\/local\/victims-of-the-eruption\/article_1b35a27a-60b5-11df-931d-001cc4c03286.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Among the 57 dead<\/a> were three aspiring geologists besides Mr. Johnston, as well as loggers, sightseers and photographers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\">About a week later, the Forest Service took reporters up in a helicopter. I had seen the mountain from the air before the eruption. Now the sprawling green wilderness that appeared endless and permanent had disappeared in a blink. We flew for an hour over nothing but moonscape. The scientists had done their best, but nature flexed a power far more deadly than even they had imagined.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\"><a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.propublica.org\/people\/lawrence-roberts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Lawrence Roberts<\/a>, a former editor at ProPublica and The Washington Post, is the author of the forthcoming \u201cMayday 1971: A White House at War, a Revolt in the Streets, and the Untold History of America\u2019s Biggest Mass Arrest.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-nnwssh evys1bk0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/17\/opinion\/mount-st-helens-coronavirus.html\">The New York Times<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<footer class=\"footer\"><\/footer>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Lawrence Roberts, Opinion, May 18, 2020 The tensions we now face between science, politics and economics also arose before the country\u2019s most destructive volcanic eruption. &nbsp; Mount St. Helens erupted on May 18, 1980.Credit&#8230;United Press International When I met David A. Johnston, it was on a spring evening, about a month before he would [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1001004,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9878"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1001004"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9878"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9878\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9886,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9878\/revisions\/9886"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/worldcampaign.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}