“Kim Jong Un grapples with the worst crisis in his reign so far: A crippled economy, no COVID-19 vaccines and food shortages”, Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Its virus control strategy to date has been simple and effective: strict quarantine measures have kept the virus from coming in by keeping everything else out.

But while North Korea may not have the virus within its borders, its pandemic defence has come at a cost.

Along with crippling its economy, the closure has also meant there is no clear strategy on how the regime will vaccinate its population to protect it against a wave of the coronavirus.

In fact, the best intelligence is that North Korea has so far not managed to acquire any vaccines against COVID-19, not even for leader Kim Jong Un himself.

Without access to vaccines and no real plan on how to get them, the population and regime remain vulnerable to any breach of the fortress.

And now the country appears in turmoil as its 37-year-old leader faces the worst crisis in his nearly decade-long reign.

North Korea may pay huge toll for pandemic restrictions

As reports first swirled at the beginning of last year that the coronavirus was spreading, North Korea pulled up its drawbridge.

With a malnourished population and a decrepit health system, the regime knew a virus outbreak would be devastating, said Professor Jung Dae-jin from the Aju Institute of Unification.

“North Korea itself knows it lacks the health infrastructure to cope with the COVID-19,” he said.

The already isolated nation cut itself off almost completely from the outside world and has held the position for over 18 months.

The strategy appears to have worked.

The most recent weekly report from the World Health Organization’s South-East Asia office shows that North Korea has recorded no COVID-19 cases, having tested 718 people during the period of June 25 to July 1.

Kang Mi-jin, a North Korean defector who is now chief executive of NK Investment and Development, is in regular contact with North Korean residents who relay messages using smuggled mobile phones.

She says the best evidence is that North Korea has managed to keep the virus out.

“North Korea is holding several massive meetings while South Korea restricts gathering to no more than five,” she said.

“The fact that North Korea holds big gatherings of thousands proves there is no COVID-19 in the North.”

But she warned it would not take much for the virus to get out of control.

“To cope with COVID-19, you need diagnostic and treatment facilities which North Korea doesn’t have,” she said.

While the strict border controls have kept the virus out, they have extracted a high toll.

Could the North be facing another ‘Arduous March’?

Despite years of sanctions, the North Korean economy still relies on trade, particularly with its key ally China. And it needs key inputs like fertiliser and fuel.

Without them, it cannot produce the food needed to feed its population. As a result, the food supply, “will be in crisis in [the] near short term,” Professor Dae-jin said.

Mr Kim has acknowledged acute food shortages and described the situation as “tense”. He has told his citizens to prepare for the “worst-ever outcome”.

A high and horrific bar was set for North Korea during the “Arduous March” period in the 1990s, when possibly millions of people starved to death during extreme famines.

North Korean state media appears to be spinning Mr Kim’s own recent unexplained weight loss of up to 20 kilograms as being a result of the nation’s food shortages.

“Our people’s hearts ached most when we saw [his] emaciated looks,” a North Korean man said on state television.

Analysts say it is still unclear why Mr Kim’s waistline is shrinking, but it is clearly being used to paint him as a stressed leader, toiling away during tough times.

Professor Jung Dae-jin said North Korea wants to restore trade to save itself but does not feel it can safely do so.

“They are eager to reopen the cooperation with China but they are not comfortable to reopen because of the pandemic,” he said.

North Korea will need to restart trade once again and the only way to do that without risking a major outbreak of COVID-19 is to vaccinate its people.

The predicament for the North Koreans is that with no hope of creating its own vaccine, it will need to open its borders to access the doses.

For a government as paranoid as the Kim regime, it is a giant leap of faith.

Kim appears to be stalling on COVID-19 vaccinations

North Korea was supposed to receive 2 million doses of Astra Zeneca vaccines from COVAX, a United Nations-backed vaccine-sharing initiative designed to help low- and middle-income countries.

But the shipments have stalled, with one suggestion that it’s because North Korea is concerned about potential side effects.

North Korea has also had vaccine offers from other countries.

The Russian foreign minister said his country has offered Pyongyang vaccines on a number of occasions. But so far, they don’t appear to have taken up the offer.

In many ways, China is the obvious pathway for North Korea to access vaccines. Just this week, the two countries celebrated the 60th anniversary of their “Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance” and promised to strengthen cooperation.

But it was notable that there was no announcement of a vaccine delivery.

Instead, South Korean intelligence suggests North Korea is barring Chinese diplomats from entering and reinforcing its border with new guard posts to ensure there are no illegal crossings.

Could South Korea help?

South Korea is currently dealing with its own fourth wave of the virus and its capital Seoul has just tightened restrictions to their highest level.

But it has made clear it is open to providing North Korea with vaccines.

Professor Jung Dae-jin said the South Korean government understands the strategic value in supplying vaccines to the North.

“The South Korean government would like to give vaccines as a diplomatic card or chip to deal with North Korea,” he said.

President Moon Jae-in is in his last year of office and is desperate to resume stalled peace talks.

“If North Korea agrees to it, we will actively pursue cooperation toward supplying vaccines to North Korea,” he said.

South Korea is promoting itself to be a global vaccination hub. It has signed agreements to produce vaccines on behalf of AstraZeneca, Novavax and Sputnik and is in talks to produce the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines.

It also has five local vaccines currently being tested.

One of those in development is from eubiologics, which has just moved to stage 2 testing. The results are expected in October.

“Hopefully, we’re going to get the vaccines ready by the end of this year or early next year,” Kim Seok-gyu from eubiologics said.

He said the company stands ready to supply to North Korea if the South Korean government asks them to.

“It is not easy to tell you right now because it is somewhat a political issue. It is subject to the [South] Korean government,” he said.

“But as long as there is a demand, then we are ready to supply.”

Ms Mi-jin said regular North Koreans would welcome access to South Korean vaccines.

“Ordinary people’s perception is, product made in South Korea is the best quality, while any product or food from China is the worst,” she said.

Although Mr Moon would love to be able to provide vaccines as a peace offering to kickstart negotiations with the North, Professor Jung Dae-jin thinks it’s still a long way off from realisation.

“North Korea is not willing to open its doors to South Korea or to [the] United States or to any other states at this point,” he said.

“President Moon’s plan will not be achieved in the short term.”

The North Korean people hope that when the door finally opens, vaccines make it through before the virus.

Australian Broadcasting Corporation